Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

MNF Week 15 TD picks: McCormick, Allen have plus-money value on Monday Night Football

For tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader, I’ve got a plus-money TD scorer from both games.

The pregame narrative: Keenan Allen had a banner week against the Minnesota Vikings last month, and I like his price to find the end zone once again. In the second matchup, look for newly-minted RB1 Sincere McCormick to fuel the Las Vegas Raiders’ offence.

Check out the best MNF Week 15 TD picks for tonight’s doubleheader.

MNF Week 15 TD picks

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Best bet: Allen anytime TD (+300)

I don’t love the Chicago Bears’ chances against the Vikings. But let’s not forget that Chicago did some damage against Minnesota just a few weeks ago.

Back in Week 12, the Vikings crept by the Bears with a 30-27 (OT) victory in what was arguably Caleb Williams’ best game of the year.

Williams finished with 340 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. His favourite target that day was Allen.

In a game with ample offence, Allen posted game-highs in targets (15) and catches (nine), which turned into 86 yards and a touchdown.

Who says he can’t run it back and find the end zone again?

Allen doesn’t routinely see the WR1-type volume he enjoyed when Chicago last played Minnesota. But he is a consistent contributor for the Bears.

35+ yards in 8/8 games since Week 6
5+ targets in 10/11 games

Chicago is a road underdog that’ll likely need to air it out. At this price, I think Allen is Monday’s top value play.

Key stat: Allen has been targeted inside the 10-yard line in two of the past three weeks.

Quick pick

McCormick anytime TD (+130): It’s difficult to rise as quickly — and sincerely — as McCormick has.

Bouncing to and from the Raiders’ practice squad since last summer, McCormick finally got a chance in Week 12 when Zamir White hit the injured reserve.

In the past three weeks, McCormick’s snap share has soared; from 10%, to 38%, and finally to 61% last Sunday. And suddenly, the undrafted 24-year-old is Vegas’ RB1.

Alexander Mattison should be back this week, but Pierce said Sincere McCormick has earned the starting RB role: "He has run his tail off." #Raiders
— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) December 11, 2024

McCormick hasn’t found the end zone yet, but he’s turned 32 carries into 175 yards (5.5 yards/carry). Last week, he had five red zone touches — including two inside the five-yard line.

I do think Alexander Mattison has value at +375 in his first game back from an ankle injury. But McCormick is publicly the guy now, and his plus-money price is worth a play.

Picks made at 12:07 p.m. ET on 12/16/2024.

Nuggets vs. Kings prop picks Dec. 16: Bet on overs for Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis

For tonight’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Sacramento Kings, I’ve got my eyes on a pair of star centres.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic isn’t just a bruiser inside, and his 3s prop is worth a look on Monday — even with extra juice. As for the Kings, look for Domantas Sabonis to make an impact as a passer.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Kings prop picks for Dec. 16.

Nuggets vs. Kings prop picks

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Best Bet: Sabonis over 5.5 assists (+110)

Sabonis is on a career-high scoring pace (21.3 PPG), which has caused his assist numbers to dip a bit this season.

But going over 5.5 assists is still in play for the ninth-year centre on any given night, and I view the Nuggets as one of the best possible matchups to make that happen.

Denver has allowed the most assists per game among NBA teams this season.

Sabonis has 7+ assists vs. Denver in four straight matchups (since December 2023).

Sabonis is averaging 6.0 assists, so he’s still on the right side of this number on an average night.

That’s nowhere near his assist volume of the past two years, mind you — 7.7 APG from 2022-24 — but it’s still solid.

Plus, Sabonis has typically been more of a pass-first, shoot-second guy when facing Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. In his past five matchups against Denver, Sabonis has averaged just 16.2 PPG.

Jokic, a fellow centre, has about 40 pounds on Sabonis. I can see how it’d be easier to dish to an outlet as opposed to trying to bully through a much bigger player.

Key stat: Sabonis has cashed this bet in 13 of 24 games this season.

Quick pick

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-167): This is definitely more juice than I’d prefer to put up with for a straight wager. But I have to give Jokic his flowers.

The big man has cashed this bet in 10 of his past 11 games, shooting 50.0% from 3-point range on just 4.5 attempts.

That type of efficiency doesn’t feel sustainable though, right? And it probably isn’t over the course of a full season.

But what if I told you Jokic has been even more efficient over Denver’s full slate of games so far? He’s shooting 51.2% from deep since opening night.

The other compelling piece is the matchup, as the Kings allow the second-highest 3PT% (37.7) and the second-most made 3s per game (15.0).

Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 12/16/2024.

MNF Week 15 TD picks: McCormick, Allen have plus-money value on Monday Night Football

For tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader, I’ve got a plus-money TD scorer from both games.

The pregame narrative: Keenan Allen had a banner week against the Minnesota Vikings last month, and I like his price to find the end zone once again. In the second matchup, look for newly-minted RB1 Sincere McCormick to fuel the Las Vegas Raiders’ offence.

Check out the best MNF Week 15 TD picks for tonight’s doubleheader.

MNF Week 15 TD picks

Go to full NFL betting markets.

Embed: #103641

Best bet: Allen anytime TD (+280)

I don’t love the Chicago Bears’ chances against the Vikings. But let’s not forget that Chicago did some damage against Minnesota just a few weeks ago.

Back in Week 12, the Vikings crept by the Bears with a 30-27 (OT) victory in what was arguably Caleb Williams’ best game of the year.

Williams finished with 340 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. His favourite target that day was Allen.

In a game with ample offence, Allen posted game-highs in targets (15) and catches (nine), which turned into 86 yards and a touchdown.

Who says he can’t run it back and find the end zone again?

Allen doesn’t routinely see the WR1-type volume he enjoyed when Chicago last played Minnesota. But he is a consistent contributor for the Bears.

35+ yards in 8/8 games since Week 6
5+ targets in 10/11 games

Chicago is a road underdog that’ll likely need to air it out. At this price, I think Allen is Monday’s top value play.

Key stat: Allen has been targeted inside the 10-yard line in two of the past three weeks.

Quick pick

McCormick anytime TD (+123): It’s difficult to rise as quickly — and sincerely — as McCormick has.

Bouncing to and from the Raiders’ practice squad since last summer, McCormick finally got a chance in Week 12 when Zamir White hit the injured reserve.

In the past three weeks, McCormick’s snap share has soared; from 10%, to 38%, and finally to 61% last Sunday. And suddenly, the undrafted 24-year-old is Vegas’ RB1.

Alexander Mattison should be back this week, but Pierce said Sincere McCormick has earned the starting RB role: "He has run his tail off." #Raiders
— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) December 11, 2024

McCormick hasn’t found the end zone yet, but he’s turned 32 carries into 175 yards (5.5 yards/carry). Last week, he had five red zone touches — including two inside the five-yard line.

I do think Alexander Mattison has value at +375 in his first game back from an ankle injury. But McCormick is publicly the guy now, and his plus-money price is worth a play.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 12/16/2024.

Nuggets vs. Kings prop picks Dec. 16: Bet on overs for Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis

For tonight’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Sacramento Kings, I’ve got my eyes on a pair of star centres.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic isn’t just a bruiser inside, and his 3s prop is worth a look on Monday — even with extra juice. As for the Kings, look for Domantas Sabonis to make an impact as a passer.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Kings prop picks for Dec. 16.

Nuggets vs. Kings prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #103628

Best Bet: Sabonis over 5.5 assists (-118)

Sabonis is on a career-high scoring pace (21.3 PPG), which has caused his assist numbers to dip a bit this season.

But going over 5.5 assists is still in play for the ninth-year centre on any given night, and I view the Nuggets as one of the best possible matchups to make that happen.

Denver has allowed the most assists per game among NBA teams this season.

Sabonis has 7+ assists vs. Denver in four straight matchups (since December 2023).

Sabonis is averaging 6.0 assists, so he’s still on the right side of this number on an average night.

That’s nowhere near his assist volume of the past two years, mind you — 7.7 APG from 2022-24 — but it’s still solid.

Plus, Sabonis has typically been more of a pass-first, shoot-second guy when facing Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. In his past five matchups against Denver, Sabonis has averaged just 16.2 PPG.

Jokic, a fellow centre, has about 40 pounds on Sabonis. I can see how it’d be easier to dish to an outlet as opposed to trying to bully through a much bigger player.

Key stat: Sabonis has cashed this bet in 13 of 24 games this season.

Quick pick

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-150): This is definitely more juice than I’d prefer to put up with for a straight wager. But I have to give Jokic his flowers.

The big man has cashed this bet in 10 of his past 11 games, shooting 50.0% from 3-point range on just 4.5 attempts.

That type of efficiency doesn’t feel sustainable though, right? And it probably isn’t over the course of a full season.

But what if I told you Jokic has been even more efficient over Denver’s full slate of games so far? He’s shooting 51.2% from deep since opening night.

The other compelling piece is the matchup, as the Kings allow the second-highest 3PT% (37.7) and the second-most made 3s per game (15.0).

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET 12/16/2024.

Memphis vs. West Virginia college football bowl picks: Bet on Tigers to win comfortably in Frisco Bowl

I’m all over the No. 25 Memphis Tigers in Tuesday’s Frisco Bowl against the West Virginia Mountaineers.

The pregame narrative: The Tigers are favourites to beat the Mountaineers, and I’m laying the points. I also think Memphis should be able to exceed its projected point total in a juicy matchup.

Check out my top Memphis vs. West Virginia picks for the Frisco Bowl on Dec. 17.

Memphis vs. West Virginia picks

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Best Bet: Memphis -4.5 (-120)

The spread has moved toward Memphis in the days since this matchup was announced, but I still like the Tigers to cover at this number.

Memphis is 10-2 on the season, covering a -4.5 spread in all 10 of those victories.

Memphis is one of the rare (and fortunate) college football teams with four years’ worth of stability under centre. Senior quarterback Seth Henigan has thrown for over 3,200 yards in all four seasons as a Tiger, and he has an 11:2 TD-to-INT ratio over his past four games.

Throw in South Carolina transfer Mario Anderson at tailback — who has 165-plus scrimmage yards in five of his past six games — and you’re looking at an offence that knows how to score.

If Tuesday’s game is a track meet, it’ll be a great advantage to Memphis. The Tigers are averaging 35.2 points per game, while the Mountaineers have exceeded the 35-point mark only twice.

West Virginia fans are probably excited about the return of former coach Rich Rodriguez, but the program is in flux right now. Ex-head coach Neal Brown was fired at the start of the month, and Rodriguez won’t be tasked with coaching the bowl game (nor should he be).

The Mountaineers went 3-4 down the stretch, losing by a double-digit margin in each defeat.

There’s little proof that WVU can stop an elite offence, as the program allowed 31.1 points during the season (106th out of 134 FBS schools).

Key stat: Memphis’ average margin of victory is 12.4 points.

Quick picks

Memphis over 31.5 total points (-110): I noted how Henigan and Anderson give the Tigers some star power on offence, which has translated into the No. 19 scoring offence in the country (35.2 PPG).

But we need to take an extra second to discuss how awful the Mountaineers’ defence has been.

106th in opponent scoring (31.1 PPG)
103rd in opponent yards (410.3 YPG)
129th in opponent pass success rate
133rd in EPA/play

To make matters worse, West Virginia linebacker Josiah Trotter opted out of the bowl game to hit the transfer portal. He was one of two Mountaineers with 90-plus total tackles this year.

In the prop market, see if there’s a way to back Henigan to carve up WVU. As a team, Memphis should be able to put up a big point total.

Memphis went over 31.5 points in eight of 12 games. WVU allowed an average of 36.2 PPG over its final six games.

Roc Taylor over 69.5 receiving yards (-118): Taylor has averaged exactly 69.5 receiving yards through 12 games and is the clear alpha of Memphis’ receiving corps.

The fourth-year Tiger has seen five-plus targets in every game this season, but the volume really ramped up over the second half.

In his past six games, Taylor has averaged …

9.7 targets
5.8 catches
76.5 yards

West Virginia ranks 124th out of 134 schools in terms of passing yards allowed (268.9/game). Taylor, who’s been catching passes from Henigan since 2021, should be in for an above-average output.

Picks made at 3:40 p.m. on 12/15/2024.

Bears vs. Vikings Week 15 MNF prop picks: Fade Caleb Williams, ride with Jordan Addison amid hot streak

I think Caleb Williams’ lengthy interception-free streak will end on Monday Night Football when the Chicago Bears face the Minnesota Vikings.

The pregame narrative: Williams has been frugal but often ineffective with the football this year, and I think the Vikings can make him pay. On the other side, I like the over on Jordan Addison’s yardage total.

Check out my Bears vs. Vikings prop picks for Monday Night Football on Dec. 16.

Bears vs. Vikings prop picks

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Best Bet: Williams over 0.5 interceptions (-130)

In order for Williams to cash this prop bet, he’ll need to snap a historic streak. But I’m not fazed by that.

Yes, Williams is riding an interception-free streak that extends over his past 255 pass attempts. That’s the longest streak in history for an NFL rookie, as well as the longest streak in Bears history.

But a dearth of interceptions doesn’t mean Williams has been sharp under centre.

Williams is 23rd in passing yards per game (211.2) and passer rating (87.8). He’s also taken a league-high 56 sacks in just 13 games.

Minnesota’s defence thrives on pressure, evidenced by its fifth-ranked pressure rate (25.8%) and top-ranked blitz rate (38.7%).

The Vikings have also forced the most interceptions in the NFL this season (20). They’ve nabbed at least one INT in 11 of 13 games.

Williams had an uncharacteristically productive game at home against Minnesota at home in Week 12, but I don’t see a repeat on Monday — especially because he’ll be on the road.

Key stat: In the Bears’ six road games (all losses), Williams has four interceptions and a 78.0 passer rating.

Quick pick

Addison over 50.5 receiving yards (-120): I’m trying to look at Addison with a level head and not simply with amazement after last week’s 133-yard, three-touchdown performance

But either way, this is a very attainable line for the second-year receiver to clear.

Addison’s production over the past four weeks look like this:

8.8 targets/game
5.8 catches/game
54+ yards in 4/4 matchups

Addison has at least one reception of 20-plus yards in six consecutive games. He also has five catches of 40-plus yards over his past four games.

Combine big-play ability with steady target share, and the numbers speak for themselves.

Picks made at 2:40 p.m. ET 12/15/2024.

Bears vs. Vikings Week 15 MNF prop picks: Fade Caleb Williams, ride with Jordan Addison amid hot streak

I think Caleb Williams’ lengthy interception-free streak will end on Monday Night Football when the Chicago Bears face the Minnesota Vikings.

The pregame narrative: Williams has been frugal but often ineffective with the football this year, and I think the Vikings can make him pay. On the other side, I like the over on Jordan Addison’s yardage total.

Check out my Bears vs. Vikings prop picks for Monday Night Football on Dec. 16.

Bears vs. Vikings prop picks

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