Two exciting rookie quarterbacks take the field for Sunday Night Football when the Atlanta Falcons face the Washington Commanders.
The pregame narrative: Michael Penix Jr. is back under centre for the Falcons after making his first NFL start last weekend. I’m backing him to clear a modest yardage total as my best bet, and I expect Terry McLaurin to continue producing for the Commanders.
Check out my Falcons vs. Commanders prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 29.
Falcons vs. Commanders prop picks
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Best Bet: Penix over 197.5 passing yards (-118)
Penix made his first NFL start last week, and it wasn’t great. But it wasn’t terrible, either, and his efficiency was an encouraging takeaway.
The eighth-overall pick completed 18 of 27 passes (66.7%) for 202 yards. He didn’t throw any TD passes, but he averaged a respectable 7.5 yards per attempt — identical to Joe Burrow’s career average.
You never know exactly what you’ll get out of a rookie, and Sunday night will be the first road start of his career. But I believe in Penix’s pedigree after an epic college career.
Prior to becoming a top-10 NFL draft pick, Penix threw for nearly 5,000 yards in his final collegiate season — en route to a Heisman runner-up finish.
He knows how to sling it, and Atlanta might need him to do more of that as a road underdog.
In a game script that should encourage passing, 200 yards isn’t much to ask for from an NFL quarterback. As long as he’s in the ballpark of 30-ish pass attempts, I like this prop bet a lot.
Washington has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards this year, but that’s because it’s also faced the third-fewest pass attempts.
From an efficiency standpoint, the Commanders are a nice matchup for opposing QBs.
Key stat: The Commanders rank 24th in defensive EPA per dropback and 16th in defensive dropback success rate, per rbsdm.com.
Quick pick
McLaurin over 64.5 receiving yards (-118): Last week, McLaurin secured his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. He also hit the 60-yard milestone for the fourth game in a row.
McLaurin is the clear-cut top target in Washington’s high-octane offence. The Commanders rank fourth in scoring and fifth in yardage.
As for McLaurin, he’s 18 catches and almost 500 yards ahead of any of his teammates in the stat department.
Simply put, this isn’t a huge total for a WR1. Atlanta has allowed 13 players to hit the 60-yard mark over its past 10 games.
Picks made at 1:24 p.m. ET 12/29/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.