The No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels cap off their season as heavy favourites in the Gator Bowl against the Duke Blue Devils.
The pregame narrative: Ole Miss star quarterback Jaxson Dart will play, which is a key reason why the Rebels are laying a bunch of points. I’ve got prop bets on Dart and Ole Miss receiver Cayden Lee in what should be a rout.
Check out my Duke vs. Ole Miss prop picks for the Gator Bowl on Jan. 2.
Duke vs. Ole Miss prop picks
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Best Bet: Lee 60+ receiving yards (-120)
Tre Harris, arguably the best receiver in the SEC this year, declared for the NFL draft and won’t suit up for the Rebels. That means Dart will have to air it out elsewhere.
Enter Lee, who’s carved out a nice role in the Ole Miss offence over the latter half of the season. Keep in mind that Harris injured his hamstring in Week 7 and played only 16 snaps down the stretch.
Since Harris’ injury on Oct. 12, here’s what Lee has accomplished:
- 7.0 targets/game
- 5.2 catches/game
- 86.7 yards/game
Lee’s consistency has been commendable, too. He has five-plus targets in six straight games.
Jordan Watkins is probably the Rebels’ WR1, but it’s close.
And given that Ole Miss’ starting running back, Henry Parrish Jr., will miss the bowl game, there should be plenty of opportunities for Lee to get involved.
The Gator Bowl will be Dart’s final chance to add to his NFL draft tape as a Rebel, and I expect him to find success chucking the ball to Lee.
Key stat: Lee has 60-plus receiving yards in four of his past six games, while also finishing with exactly 59 yards once.
Quick picks
Dart over 29.5 rushing yards (-107): There’s always a fear that draft-worthy college prospects might get hurt in their bowl games. As such, you’d think Dart will be at least somewhat cautious when tucking and running.
But as I said, this is his last chance to boost his draft stock as a Rebel. Escapability is paramount for modern NFL quarterbacks, and Dart can flash that skill set.
- Dart rushed for 45-plus yards in four straight games to close out the regular season.
- He had a season-high 77 rush yards in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State.
On the year, Dart averaged 37.7 rush yards and cashed this bet in seven of 12 games.
With Parrish sidelined, Dart is the Rebels’ active leading rusher. And though I doubt his volume of carries will be high, this is a bar he can definitely clear.
Henry Belin IV 175+ passing yards (-127): Maalik Murphy transferred, which means Belin will make his second collegiate start on Thursday night.
As you can imagine, there are plenty of unknowns about how this will play out. The former three-star recruit has completed just 19 passes in three seasons at Duke.
Enter at your own risk with this pick, but I think it makes sense on paper.
- As a 17.5-point underdog, Duke will likely be in a position to throw all game.
- Ole Miss ranks No. 1 in yards allowed per rush, so running the ball likely won’t be effective anyway.
- Duke’s top running back, Star Thomas, is in the transfer portal and will not play.
Whether or not he’s efficient, I see a path to this yardage milestone for Belin based on opportunity. And I’m sure he’s relishing the chance to show Duke what he can do.
Picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET 01/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.