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Kings vs. Spurs same-game parlay predictions Nov. 11: Bet on De’Aaron Fox and Sacramento at +310

The Sacramento Kings and San Antonio Spurs meet for the first time this season.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento is on the second leg of a back-to-back after winning in overtime yesterday. The Kings may be tired but they’re the much better team so I’ll back them on the moneyline alongside prop bets on De’Aaron Fox and Chris Paul.

Check out my Kings vs. Spurs same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 11.

Kings vs. Spurs predictions

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Parlay: Kings moneyline + Fox over 24.5 points + Paul over 6.5 points (+310)

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Kings moneyline (-124): Backing the Kings on no rest on the road might seem scary, but I can’t get behind the Spurs right now.

San Antonio is 4-6 this season and has dropped three of its last four. It most recently lost at home to the Utah Jazz, who rank last in the NBA in net and offensive rating.

Victor Wembanyama is having a tough start to the season, shooting 42.5% from the field and 23.5% from deep. He seems a little lost out there and Sacramento’s defence has been a pleasant surprise in 2024, sitting 11th in defensive rating.

The Spurs have also made a habit of letting tired teams off the hook and are 6-15 straight up with a rest advantage since the start of last season, according to Team Rankings.

SGP legs

Fox over 24.5 points (-134): The Kings went 3-0 against the Spurs last year and Fox had a field day in each game.

The point guard scored 43, 28 and 33 points, leading Sacramento in scoring each time. There is another mouth to feed in the offence this year with DeMar DeRozan in the mix, so I wouldn’t expect another 40-piece tonight.

That said, the Spurs are great at defending the paint and mediocre at defending the perimeter, so Fox has the best matchup on the team.

He has scored at least 21 points in all six games this month, clearing this line three times while shooting 47.9% from the field.

Paul over 6.5 points (-315): Paul only had three points in his last game on 0-of-6 shooting but I expect a bounce back tonight.

The veteran point guard had cleared this line in six of seven games prior while averaging 13.4 points in that span. Devin Vassell is back in the lineup, so Paul might have to facilitate more, but this should be well within reach.

The Kings allow opponents to shoot 36.4% from deep (20th in the NBA) and Paul takes 67.5% of his shots from beyond the arc.

NBA picks made at 12:21 p.m. on 11/11/24.

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Dolphins vs. Rams Week 10 same-game parlay predictions: Back Miami, Achane at +325 on Monday Night Football

The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams wrap up Week 10 at SoFi Stadium.

The pregame narrative: The Rams have their top receivers back and are on a three-game winning streak, but I’ll back the Dolphins to cover an alternate spread as underdogs. Prop bets on De’Von Achane and Cooper Kupp round out this +325 SGP.

Check out my Dolphins vs. Rams same-game parlay predictions for Monday Night Football on Nov. 11.

Dolphins vs. Rams predictions

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Parlay: Dolphins +7.5 + Achane over 59.5 rushing yards + Kupp over 64.5 receiving yards (+325)

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Dolphins +7.5 (-278): This is a must-win game for Miami if it wants a chance at sneaking back into the AFC playoff picture.

The Dolphins are 2-6 but have looked competent with Tua Tagovailoa under centre. Since his return in Week 8, they’ve lost 28-27 to the Arizona Cardinals and 30-27 to the Bills in Buffalo.

Miami has covered this line in four straight — dating to when Tyler Huntley was starting — and I believe it can keep pace with the Rams’ electric offence. That’s mainly because of the Rams’ not-so-electric defence.

Los Angeles has the 22nd-ranked scoring defence (24.3 points/game), 25th-ranked total defence (360.8 yards/game), and is 21st in RBSDM.com’s EPA per play.

There is an Aaron Donald-sized hole on the line that Miami should be able to exploit for frequent gains, and Tyreek Hill should have his way with a suspect secondary.

Other parlay picks

Achane over 59.5 rushing yards (+100): I would highly recommend playing this as a standalone wager considering Achane’s recent dominance and Los Angeles’ struggles against the run.

Miami’s running back hit a lull when Tagovailoa went down midseason but has been money the last three games:

Week 9 vs. Bills: 12 carries, 63 yards, 5.3 YPC
Week 8 vs. Cardinals: 10 carries, 97 yards, 9.7 YPC
Week 7 vs. Colts (no Tagovailoa): 15 carries, 77 yards, 5.1 YPC

The Rams’ defence ranks 21st in rush success rate and has allowed all but one of its opponents’ starting RBs to clear this total.

In 13 games played with Tagovailoa where Achane received more than one carry, he is averaging 82.4 rushing yards per game and is 8-5 against this line. He should stay hot tonight.

Kupp over 64.5 receiving yards (-120): Kupp started his year off by hauling in 14 of 21 targets for 110 yards and a score.

He was injured the following week and eased back into the offence for his return against the Vikings in Week 8.

And after that he went nuclear again, catching 11 of 14 passes for 104 yards. Matthew Stafford isn’t shy about throwing to his favourite target and Sean McVay will surely scheme Kupp around the field away from Jalen Ramsey.

The Dolphins have held receivers to the fourth-fewest yards per game but that’s mainly because opponents have been up big and ran the ball down their throat.

Miami ranks 23rd in defensive EPA per dropback and Los Angeles shouldn’t be in a position where it can abandon the pass game.

Picks made at 10:24 a.m. ET 11/11/2024.

Christian McCaffrey Week 10 NFL props: Odds and best bet for 49ers’ star RB in his return

Christian McCaffrey is back.

The pregame narrative: The reigning Offensive Player of the Year missed nine weeks with calf injuries and should provide an immediate boost to the San Francisco 49ers against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Check out our Christian McCaffrey props, odds and best bet for Week 10 vs. Tampa Bay.

Christian McCaffrey props

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

McCaffrey prop markets	Betting odds
Over 65.5 rushing yards	-115
Under 65.5 rushing yards	-113
Over 14.5 rushing attempts	-117
Under 14.5 rushing attempts	-112
Over 24.5 receiving yards	-114
Under 24.5 receiving yards	-114
Over 93.5 rushing and receiving yards	-115
Under 93.5 rushing and receiving yards	-113
Anytime TD scorer	-250
To score 2+ TDs	+295
To score 3+ TDs	+1,300

NFL odds as of 2:02 p.m. ET on 11/09/2024.

McCaffrey literally and figuratively ran away with the OPOY trophy last season, leading the NFL in:

Touchdowns (21)
Rushing yards (1,459)
Scrimmage yards (2,023)
Touches (339)

He also toted the ball at an impressive 4.5 YPC, was second in RB receiving yards (564), and had a 17-game touchdown streak dating back to the 2022 season.

CMC’s role as a modern-day bell-cow is impressive but it might have also contributed to his long layoff.

He had 24-plus touches (rushes/receptions) in all three of San Francisco’s playoff games and experienced bilateral Achilles tendinitis in training camp.

The Niners are 22-5 all-time with McCaffrey in the lineup and are 4-5 this year without him. That says just about all you need to know.

Best McCaffrey prop bet

Best Bet: McCaffrey under 14.5 rushing attempts (-112)

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Maybe I’ll look stupid for taking this postgame but I can’t imagine McCaffrey immediately returning to his old workload.

The Niners’ goal this season is simple: Win the Super Bowl.

We’ve seen that won’t be possible with McCaffrey out of the lineup, so Kyle Shanahan would be wise to treat his superstar with kid gloves.

San Francisco is a 6.5-point favourite over a Tampa Bay team ravaged by injuries. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out and I can see a blowout brewing in Florida.

Even if this game is close, rookie RB Isaac Guerendo has been flashing for the Niners. He has gone for 85-plus yards both times he’s received 10-plus carries and is churning out a huge 6.1 YPC on the season.

Finally, this line hasn’t been quite “automatic” for McCaffrey in regular-season games.

He is 17-10 against it in 27 games with SF and had either 15 or 16 carries in four of those contests.

Pick made at 2:02 p.m. ET on 10/07/2024.

Lions vs. Texans Week 10 SNF prop picks: Back C.J. Stroud, Jahmyr Gibbs

Two teams with Super Bowl aspirations meet on Sunday Night Football when the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions.

The pregame narrative: C.J. Stroud has been lights out at home and might be getting his No. 1 receiver back. Take the over on his passing total and also back Jahmyr Gibbs to rumble against Houston’s front.

Check out my Lions vs. Texans prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Nov. 10.

Lions vs. Texans prop picks

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Best Bet: Stroud over 228.5 passing yards (-113)

Is Stroud a house cat? We’re super early into the quarterback’s career but it’s starting to look like it.

Last year’s No. 2 overall pick has some staggering home/away splits:

Home (10-2 record): 308.9 passing yards/game, 66.4% completion rate, 105.7 QBR
Road (5-7 record): 211.7 passing yards/game, 60.6% completion rate, 87.9 QBR

With a near 100-yard delta between his average passing yards at NRG Stadium and away from it, Stroud has become quite predictive. This season, he’s 4-0 against this line at home and 1-5 on the road.

Stefon Diggs is out for the season but Nico Collins was cleared to return from the IR and practiced on Friday. He’s listed as questionable and would be a massive boost to a struggling offence.

But even if Collins is out, I like Stroud’s chances of clearing this line because Houston would likely be playing from behind.

The Lions are allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (265.7) despite ranking fifth in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com.

That’s what happens when Jared Goff and Co. are putting up a league-high 32.3 PPG.

Key stat: Stroud has gone over this mark in nine of his last 10 home games (playoffs included)

Quick pick

Gibbs over 59.5 rushing yards (-114): Detroit’s backfield is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.

Gibbs and David Montgomery are eating teams alive on the ground in large part due to an all-world offensive line.

Taking the over on either’s rushing total should be playable on Sunday against a middling Texans front but I like Gibbs for a few reasons:

He is averaging 6.4 YPC to Montgomery’s 4.4
Gibbs is 7-1 against this line (cleared in six straight)
He has gone over 100 rushing yards in two of his last three games

Houston is giving up 4.7 yards per rush which is the ninth-highest mark in the NFL and again, if Detroit is leading, that should work in our favour.

Picks made at 12:13 p.m. ET 11/09/2024.

Raptors vs. Clippers props Nov. 9: Fade James Harden, Ochai Agbaji in Los Angeles

I’m fading James Harden and Ochai Agbaji when the Toronto Raptors play the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

The pregame narrative: L.A. is on the second leg of a back-to-back and that’s part of the reason I expect Harden to go under his 3-point total. Agbaji, meanwhile, has carved out an interesting role for himself but gets a tough matchup.

Check out my Raptors vs. Clippers props for Nov. 9.

Raptors vs. Clippers props

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Best Bet: Harden under 2.5 threes (+105)

A decade ago, taking the under on a Harden 3-point line like this would be crazy. Now, not so much.

The veteran’s 35.2% usage rate is his highest since the 2019-20 season but he’s shooting a horrible 30.1% from deep, which is on pace to be the worst mark of his career.

Toronto isn’t a great defensive team and allows opponents to shoot a middling 35.8% from beyond the arc.

But most of the damage done against the Raptors from deep comes from the corner. According to Cleaning the Glass, Toronto allows opponents to shoot 46.2% on corner threes (29th in the NBA) and 33.0% from non-corner threes (fifth in the NBA).

Harden absolutely hates taking corner threes and has only attempted one all season compared to 70 non-corner threes. Last year he shot 40 corner threes and 444 non-corner threes. That’s staggering.

Not to mention the veteran played 35 minutes in a road win yesterday and will probably get a bit of a breather tonight back at home.

Key stat: Harden has gone under this mark in five of nine games.

Quick pick

Agbaji under 10.5 points (-120): Toronto doesn’t have a true power forward and often rolls with a four-guard lineup.

Immanuel Quickley is in line to return, meaning Agbaji will see some time at power forward.

The 6-foot-5 Kansas product is taking more threes but less will be available tonight. Without Quickley he is 6-2 against this line but had just three points in 25 minutes in the one game they’ve played together this year.

Dating back to last season, Agbaji is averaging 5.8 PPG with Quickley in the lineup and has fallen under this line in 10 straight games.

The Clippers also allow the fewest points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 10:24 a.m. ET 11/09/2024.

Raptors vs. Clippers props Nov. 9: Fade James Harden, Ochai Agbaji in Los Angeles

I’m fading James Harden and Ochai Agbaji when the Toronto Raptors play the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

The pregame narrative: L.A. is on the second leg of a back-to-back and that’s part of the reason I expect Harden to go under his 3-point total. Agbaji, meanwhile, has carved out an interesting role for himself but gets a tough matchup.

Check out my Raptors vs. Clippers props for Nov. 9.

Raptors vs. Clippers props

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Best Bet: Harden under 2.5 threes (+100)

A decade ago, taking the under on a Harden 3-point line like this would be crazy. Now, not so much.

The veteran’s 35.2% usage rate is his highest since the 2019-20 season but he’s shooting a horrible 30.1% from deep, which is on pace to be the worst mark of his career.

Toronto isn’t a great defensive team and allows opponents to shoot a middling 35.8% from beyond the arc.

But most of the damage done against the Raptors from deep comes from the corner. According to Cleaning the Glass, Toronto allows opponents to shoot 46.2% on corner threes (29th in the NBA) and 33.0% from non-corner threes (fifth in the NBA).

Harden absolutely hates taking corner threes and has only attempted one all season compared to 70 non-corner threes. Last year he shot 40 corner threes and 444 non-corner threes. That’s staggering.

Not to mention the veteran played 35 minutes in a road win yesterday and will probably get a bit of a breather tonight back at home.

Key stat: Harden has gone under this mark in five of nine games.

Quick pick

Agbaji under 10.5 points (-120): Toronto doesn’t have a true power forward and often rolls with a four-guard lineup.

Immanuel Quickley is in line to return, meaning Agbaji will see some time at power forward.

The 6-foot-5 Kansas product is taking more threes but less will be available tonight. Without Quickley he is 6-2 against this line but had just three points in 25 minutes in the one game they’ve played together this year.

Dating back to last season, Agbaji is averaging 5.8 PPG with Quickley in the lineup and has fallen under this line in 10 straight games.

The Clippers also allow the fewest points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 10:24 a.m. ET 11/09/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 9: Back bigs Wembanyama, Mobley to score

I’m targeting a pair of big men and a shooting guard in Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama and Evan Mobley should run wild against the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets tonight while Zach LaVine is a good bet to produce from deep.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 9.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Wembanyama over 22.5 points (-120)

It’s hard to get behind Wembanyama right now with the way he’s playing.

The second-year phenom is averaging 17.7 points per game while shooting a dreadful 41.3% from the field. Nealy half of his 15.3 field goal attempts are coming from deep, which is a little puzzling considering his 7-foot-4 stature and even larger wingspan.

That said, I like Wemby’s chances of righting the ship tonight because Utah profiles as the type of team he can succeed against.

The Jazz have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA and allow the second-most points per game to centres, according to Betting Pros.

If we want to get even more granular, they allow opponents to shoot 48.3% from the “deep midrange” and 38.1% from “non-corner threes”, according to Cleaning the Glass. That ranks 28th and 26th among all teams.

Those are two areas of the court that are very familiar to the San Antonio Spurs centre.

Key stat: Wembanyama takes 15% of his shots from the deep midrange (95th percentile among all NBA players) and 41% from non-corner threes (91st percentile).

Quick picks

Mobley over 15.5 points (-134): The biggest risk with this pick is blowout potential. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 13-point favourites at home and that could mean less run for Mobley.

That said, the fourth-year power forward’s 23.7% usage rate is the highest of his career so far and he’s scoring at an efficient clip.

Mobley is averaging 17.9 points per game on 53.0% shooting. Most of that damage comes in the short midrange or at the rim, two areas where the Nets struggle to defend.

He’s 6-5 against this line and came within a basket of clearing it in the other four contests.

LaVine over 2.5 threes (-163): Two things to note: First, this is a lot of juice but I believe it’s worth it. And second, the shooting guard is listed as questionable so that will need to be monitored moving forward.

The Atlanta Hawks’ defence is awful — full stop.

It ranks 25th in defensive rating and dead last in opponent 3-point percentage (40.5).

LaVine is attempting 8.0 threes a night and is connecting at a 45.8% clip. He just buried five triples against the Nets and had five against the Memphis Grizzlies two games before that.

If he suits up, this should be a breeze. And if not, a pivot to Colby White (9.0 3PA/game, 39.5 3PT%) isn’t a bad option.

Picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 11/09/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 9: Back bigs Wembanyama, Mobley to score

I’m targeting a pair of big men and a shooting guard in Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama and Evan Mobley should run wild against the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets tonight while Zach LaVine is a good bet to produce from deep.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 9.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Wembanyama over 22.5 points (-118)

It’s hard to get behind Wembanyama right now with the way he’s playing.

The second-year phenom is averaging 17.7 points per game while shooting a dreadful 41.3% from the field. Nealy half of his 15.3 field goal attempts are coming from deep, which is a little puzzling considering his 7-foot-4 stature and even larger wingspan.

That said, I like Wemby’s chances of righting the ship tonight because Utah profiles as the type of team he can succeed against.

The Jazz have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA and allow the second-most points per game to centres, according to Betting Pros.

If we want to get even more granular, they allow opponents to shoot 48.3% from the “deep midrange” and 38.1% from “non-corner threes”, according to Cleaning the Glass. That ranks 28th and 26th among all teams.

Those are two areas of the court that are very familiar to the San Antonio Spurs centre.

Key stat: Wembanyama takes 15% of his shots from the deep midrange (95th percentile among all NBA players) and 41% from non-corner threes (91st percentile).

Quick picks

Mobley over 15.5 points (-120): The biggest risk with this pick is blowout potential. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 13-point favourites at home and that could mean less run for Mobley.

That said, the fourth-year power forward’s 23.7% usage rate is the highest of his career so far and he’s scoring at an efficient clip.

Mobley is averaging 17.9 points per game on 53.0% shooting. Most of that damage comes in the short midrange or at the rim, two areas where the Nets struggle to defend.

He’s 6-5 against this line and came within a basket of clearing it in the other four contests.

LaVine over 2.5 threes (-141): Two things to note: First, this is a lot of juice but I believe it’s worth it. And second, the shooting guard is listed as questionable so that will need to be monitored moving forward.

The Atlanta Hawks’ defence is awful — full stop.

It ranks 25th in defensive rating and dead last in opponent 3-point percentage (40.5).

LaVine is attempting 8.0 threes a night and is connecting at a 45.8% clip. He just buried five triples against the Nets and had five against the Memphis Grizzlies two games before that.

If he suits up, this should be a breeze. And if not, a pivot to Colby White (9.0 3PA/game, 39.5 3PT%) isn’t a bad option.

Picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 11/09/2024.

NHL best bets Nov. 8: Back Wild to win, take the over in Washington

One moneyline pick and one over/under wager make up today’s NHL best bets.

The pregame narrative: The Minnesota Wild are rolling and should handle an awful Anaheim Ducks team in regulation. Before that, expect plenty of goals in a rivalry game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.

Find my NHL best bets for Nov. 8 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Wild to win in regulation (-130)

If Lukas Dostal wasn’t on the Ducks there’s a real chance they would be dead last in the NHL.

The 24-year-old Czech netminder owns a 2.50 GAA (10th in the NHL) to pair with a stellar .930 SV% (third). He ranks first in Money Puck’s goals saved above expected (11.7) with a 4.5-goal buffer ahead of the second-place Igor Shesterkin.

But Dostal has started four straight games for Anaheim — and nine of its last 10 — and is starting to crack.

He’s allowed nine goals in his last two starts with a SV% below .870 in each outing. The Ducks would be wise to give him a rest and backup James Reimer has been awful (4.50 GAA, .864 SV%).

But even if Dostal plays I love Minnesota to win this game handily.

The Ducks can’t score and rank dead last in goals per game (2.08). The Wild, meanwhile, are scoring the eighth-most goals per game (3.63) behind the stellar play of Kirill Kaprizov.

This simply smells like a blowout.

Key stat: Minnesota is 9-2-2 and eight of those wins have come in regulation.

Quick picks

Penguins/Capitals over 6.5 goals (-106): Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin have provided fans with one of the most memorable rivalries in NHL history and I expect both to lead their teams offensively tonight.

The Capitals have been the NHL’s biggest surprise this season with a 9-3-0 record through 12 games thanks to an electric offence.

Washington scores the fourth-most goals per game (4.08) and Ovi has contributed eight in his chase to pass Wayne Gretzky for the most all time.

With a back-to-back on the horizon, the Capitals are electing to start Charlie Lindgren in goal. He has an underwhelming .896 SV% and has allowed three goals in three straight starts.

Pittsburgh is nowhere near Washington in terms of offence but it should able light the lamp tonight.

Crosby (15) and Evgeni Malkin (16) pace the team in points and have helped the Pens scored three-plus goals in four of their last six games.

The Capitals also allow the ninth-most 5-on-5 chances per 60, per Natural Stat Trick.

NHL best bets made at 11:39 a.m. ET 11/08/2024.

NHL best bets Nov. 8: Back Wild to win, take the over in Washington

One moneyline pick and one over/under wager make up today’s NHL best bets.

The pregame narrative: The Minnesota Wild are rolling and should handle an awful Anaheim Ducks team in regulation. Before that, expect plenty of goals in a rivalry game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.

Find my NHL best bets for Nov. 8 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Wild to win in regulation (-117)

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If Lukas Dostal wasn’t on the Ducks there’s a real chance they would be dead last in the NHL.

The 24-year-old Czech netminder owns a 2.50 GAA (10th in the NHL) to pair with a stellar .930 SV% (third). He ranks first in Money Puck’s goals saved above expected (11.7) with a 4.5-goal buffer ahead of the second-place Igor Shesterkin.

But Dostal has started four straight games for Anaheim — and nine of its last 10 — and is starting to crack.

He’s allowed nine goals in his last two starts with a SV% below .870 in each outing. The Ducks would be wise to give him a rest and backup James Reimer has been awful (4.50 GAA, .864 SV%).

But even if Dostal plays I love Minnesota to win this game handily.

The Ducks can’t score and rank dead last in goals per game (2.08). The Wild, meanwhile, are scoring the eighth-most goals per game (3.63) behind the stellar play of Kirill Kaprizov.

This simply smells like a blowout.

Key stat: Minnesota is 9-2-2 and eight of those wins have come in regulation.

Quick picks

Penguins/Capitals over 6.5 goals (-105): Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin have provided fans with one of the most memorable rivalries in NHL history and I expect both to lead their teams offensively tonight.

The Capitals have been the NHL’s biggest surprise this season with a 9-3-0 record through 12 games thanks to an electric offence.

Washington scores the fourth-most goals per game (4.08) and Ovi has contributed eight in his chase to pass Wayne Gretzky for the most all time.

With a back-to-back on the horizon, the Capitals are electing to start Charlie Lindgren in goal. He has an underwhelming .896 SV% and has allowed three goals in three straight starts.

Pittsburgh is nowhere near Washington in terms of offence but it should able light the lamp tonight.

Crosby (15) and Evgeni Malkin (16) pace the team in points and have helped the Pens scored three-plus goals in four of their last six games.

The Capitals also allow the ninth-most 5-on-5 chances per 60, per Natural Stat Trick.

NHL best bets made at 11:39 a.m. ET 11/08/2024.