I’m targeting a pair of big men and a shooting guard in Saturday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama and Evan Mobley should run wild against the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets tonight while Zach LaVine is a good bet to produce from deep.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 9.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Wembanyama over 22.5 points (-118)
It’s hard to get behind Wembanyama right now with the way he’s playing.
The second-year phenom is averaging 17.7 points per game while shooting a dreadful 41.3% from the field. Nealy half of his 15.3 field goal attempts are coming from deep, which is a little puzzling considering his 7-foot-4 stature and even larger wingspan.
That said, I like Wemby’s chances of righting the ship tonight because Utah profiles as the type of team he can succeed against.
The Jazz have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA and allow the second-most points per game to centres, according to Betting Pros.
If we want to get even more granular, they allow opponents to shoot 48.3% from the “deep midrange” and 38.1% from “non-corner threes”, according to Cleaning the Glass. That ranks 28th and 26th among all teams.
Those are two areas of the court that are very familiar to the San Antonio Spurs centre.
Key stat: Wembanyama takes 15% of his shots from the deep midrange (95th percentile among all NBA players) and 41% from non-corner threes (91st percentile).
Quick picks
Mobley over 15.5 points (-120): The biggest risk with this pick is blowout potential. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 13-point favourites at home and that could mean less run for Mobley.
That said, the fourth-year power forward’s 23.7% usage rate is the highest of his career so far and he’s scoring at an efficient clip.
Mobley is averaging 17.9 points per game on 53.0% shooting. Most of that damage comes in the short midrange or at the rim, two areas where the Nets struggle to defend.
He’s 6-5 against this line and came within a basket of clearing it in the other four contests.
LaVine over 2.5 threes (-141): Two things to note: First, this is a lot of juice but I believe it’s worth it. And second, the shooting guard is listed as questionable so that will need to be monitored moving forward.
The Atlanta Hawks’ defence is awful — full stop.
It ranks 25th in defensive rating and dead last in opponent 3-point percentage (40.5).
LaVine is attempting 8.0 threes a night and is connecting at a 45.8% clip. He just buried five triples against the Nets and had five against the Memphis Grizzlies two games before that.
If he suits up, this should be a breeze. And if not, a pivot to Colby White (9.0 3PA/game, 39.5 3PT%) isn’t a bad option.
Picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 11/09/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.