The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams wrap up Week 10 at SoFi Stadium.
The pregame narrative: The Rams have their top receivers back and are on a three-game winning streak, but I’ll back the Dolphins to cover an alternate spread as underdogs. Prop bets on De’Von Achane and Cooper Kupp round out this +325 SGP.
Check out my Dolphins vs. Rams same-game parlay predictions for Monday Night Football on Nov. 11.
Dolphins vs. Rams predictions
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Parlay: Dolphins +7.5 + Achane over 59.5 rushing yards + Kupp over 64.5 receiving yards (+325)
Dolphins +7.5 (-278): This is a must-win game for Miami if it wants a chance at sneaking back into the AFC playoff picture.
The Dolphins are 2-6 but have looked competent with Tua Tagovailoa under centre. Since his return in Week 8, they’ve lost 28-27 to the Arizona Cardinals and 30-27 to the Bills in Buffalo.
Miami has covered this line in four straight — dating to when Tyler Huntley was starting — and I believe it can keep pace with the Rams’ electric offence. That’s mainly because of the Rams’ not-so-electric defence.
Los Angeles has the 22nd-ranked scoring defence (24.3 points/game), 25th-ranked total defence (360.8 yards/game), and is 21st in RBSDM.com’s EPA per play.
There is an Aaron Donald-sized hole on the line that Miami should be able to exploit for frequent gains, and Tyreek Hill should have his way with a suspect secondary.
Other parlay picks
Achane over 59.5 rushing yards (+100): I would highly recommend playing this as a standalone wager considering Achane’s recent dominance and Los Angeles’ struggles against the run.
Miami’s running back hit a lull when Tagovailoa went down midseason but has been money the last three games:
- Week 9 vs. Bills: 12 carries, 63 yards, 5.3 YPC
- Week 8 vs. Cardinals: 10 carries, 97 yards, 9.7 YPC
- Week 7 vs. Colts (no Tagovailoa): 15 carries, 77 yards, 5.1 YPC
The Rams’ defence ranks 21st in rush success rate and has allowed all but one of its opponents’ starting RBs to clear this total.
In 13 games played with Tagovailoa where Achane received more than one carry, he is averaging 82.4 rushing yards per game and is 8-5 against this line. He should stay hot tonight.
Kupp over 64.5 receiving yards (-120): Kupp started his year off by hauling in 14 of 21 targets for 110 yards and a score.
He was injured the following week and eased back into the offence for his return against the Vikings in Week 8.
And after that he went nuclear again, catching 11 of 14 passes for 104 yards. Matthew Stafford isn’t shy about throwing to his favourite target and Sean McVay will surely scheme Kupp around the field away from Jalen Ramsey.
The Dolphins have held receivers to the fourth-fewest yards per game but that’s mainly because opponents have been up big and ran the ball down their throat.
Miami ranks 23rd in defensive EPA per dropback and Los Angeles shouldn’t be in a position where it can abandon the pass game.
Picks made at 10:24 a.m. ET 11/11/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.