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Maple Leafs picks vs. Capitals Nov. 13: Back Toronto to win a low-scoring game

The Toronto Maple Leafs are set for their third back-to-back in the last 10 days.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s three-game winning streak was snapped by the Ottawa Senators yesterday. Now the Buds travel to Washington to take on the red-hot Capitals with Joseph Woll in goal.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. the Capitals for the Nov. 13 game on Wednesday night.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Capitals

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Best Bet: Under 6.5 goals in regulation (-175)

The NHL schedule makers might be out to lunch but this should make tonight’s game more predictive.

Toronto got blown out by the Columbus Blue Jackets on a back-to-back on Oct. 22. The Leafs played some lazy hockey and hung rookie goaltender Dennis Hildeby out to dry.

Head coach Craig Berube had this to say: “Bottom line, it boiled down to them out-skating us, out-working us, and being a harder team.”

The Leafs have played two back-to-backs since and the results couldn’t be more different:

Nov: 3 @ Minnesota: 2-1 overtime loss
Nov. 9 vs. Montreal: 4-1 win

Tight checking and stingy defence should be the name of the game tonight, especially with Auston Matthews out.

Woll started on Saturday against the Canadiens and turned away 20 of 21 shots in the victory and I expect him to keep things rolling against the Capitals.

Washington has been lighting up the scoreboard this year but has fallen under this line in three of its last four games. Toronto, meanwhile, has cashed this bet in seven straight.

Key stat: The under on this total is 12-5 in Leafs games this season.

Quick picks

Maple Leafs moneyline (+107): For some reason, Toronto plays pretty well without its best player.

The Leafs are 38-19-2 all-time when Matthews is out of the lineup and are 3-1-0 since he was injured last Sunday. They’ve only given up five goals in that four-game span and seem committed to playing low-event hockey.

If that’s the case, I like Toronto to win because of a goaltending advantage.

Woll hasn’t gotten many reps this year but I liked what I saw out of him on Saturday.

Washington hasn’t announced a starter as of Wednesday morning but has been going back and forth every game between Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren.

It’s Lindgren’s turn in goal and he’s been the lame duck with a 3-4 record and .897 SV%.

NHL picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 11/13/24.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Capitals Nov. 13: Back Toronto to win a low-scoring game

The Toronto Maple Leafs are set for their third back-to-back in the last 10 days.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s three-game winning streak was snapped by the Ottawa Senators yesterday. Now the Buds travel to Washington to take on the red-hot Capitals with Joseph Woll in goal.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. the Capitals for the Nov. 13 game on Wednesday night.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Capitals

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Embed: #100180

Best Bet: Under 6.5 goals (-132)

The NHL schedule makers might be out to lunch but this should make tonight’s game more predictive.

Toronto got blown out by the Columbus Blue Jackets on a back-to-back on Oct. 22. The Leafs played some lazy hockey and hung rookie goaltender Dennis Hildeby out to dry.

Head coach Craig Berube had this to say: “Bottom line, it boiled down to them out-skating us, out-working us, and being a harder team.”

The Leafs have played two back-to-backs since and the results couldn’t be more different:

Nov: 3 @ Minnesota: 2-1 overtime loss
Nov. 9 vs. Montreal: 4-1 win

Tight checking and stingy defence should be the name of the game tonight, especially with Auston Matthews out.

Woll started on Saturday against the Canadiens and turned away 20 of 21 shots in the victory and I expect him to keep things rolling against the Capitals.

Washington has been lighting up the scoreboard this year but has fallen under this line in three of its last four games. Toronto, meanwhile, has cashed this bet in seven straight.

Key stat: The under on this total is 12-5 in Leafs games this season.

Quick picks

Maple Leafs moneyline (+107): For some reason, Toronto plays pretty well without its best player.

The Leafs are 38-19-2 all-time when Matthews is out of the lineup and are 3-1-0 since he was injured last Sunday. They’ve only given up five goals in that four-game span and seem committed to playing low-event hockey.

If that’s the case, I like Toronto to win because of a goaltending advantage.

Woll hasn’t gotten many reps this year but I liked what I saw out of him on Saturday.

Washington hasn’t announced a starter as of Wednesday morning but has been going back and forth every game between Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren.

It’s Lindgren’s turn in goal and he’s been the lame duck with a 3-4 record and .897 SV%.

NHL picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 11/13/24.

Commanders vs. Eagles Week 11 TNF best bets and odds: Back A.J. Brown, Philadelphia ATS

The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles battle for NFC East supremacy on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia has been dismantling teams since its Week 5 bye and I expect that to continue in primetime at home. A.J. Brown is also in line to have a monster game against a weak defence.

Check out my Commanders vs. Eagles best bets for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 14.

Commanders vs. Eagles best bets

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Best Bet: Eagles -3.5 (-106)

Philadelphia ended last season in a tailspin and started this one 2-2.

For a minute, it felt like Nick Siranni’s seat was scorching but the Eagles have righted the ship after a fortuitously-timed bye week.

Philly is 5-0 since the bye (3-2 ATS)

With a +82 point differential

Scoring 29.4 points per game

From Week 6 onwards, the Eagles are first in defensive EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.

Philly has played some of the worst defence the NFL has to offer (Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars) but it’s not like Washington is a stalwart on that side of the ball.

The Commanders allow the fifth-most yards per carry (4.8) and rushing yards per game (142.7) and are 24th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per play.

Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts are almost impossible to contain and I expect them to punish Washington on the ground while Brown torches them through the air.

Key stat: The Eagles are 5-1 against the Commanders over the last three seasons.

Quick pick

Brown over 78.5 receiving yards (-120): I expect Barkley to run wild but am hesitant to take the over on his monster 92.5 rushing total. Instead, I’ll turn to Brown, who has routinely torched his divisional rival.

Brown has 23 catches for 397 yards in four games versus the Commanders since joining the Eagles, clearing this line in three of those contests.

Last year, he went off for 175 and 130 yards against Washington.

DeVonta Smith may be sidelined with a hamstring injury while Marshon Lattimore could make his debut for the Commanders at corner.

The status of either player should impact this line, so keep an eye out, but I expect Brown to clear it regardless.

Brown has gone over this mark in five of six games this season and leads all Eagles in air yards despite missing three games.

Picks made at 10:12 a.m. ET 11/12/2024.

NFL Week 11 upset picks: Take Steelers to win crucial AFC North showdown

The Pittsburgh Steelers headline these NFL Week 11 upset picks.

The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh hosts the Baltimore Ravens for AFC North supremacy and I like it to win as a home underdog. Elsewhere, I like the Cincinnati Bengals to win on Sunday Night Football.

Check out these NFL Week 11 upset picks.

NFL Week 11 upset picks

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Best bet: Steelers moneyline (+150)

Mike Tomlin has had the upper hand in these divisional dogfights.

Pittsburgh is 7-1 against Baltimore over the last four seasons and while none of those games were decided by more than a score, Pittsburgh’s quarterbacks were Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and a washed-up Ben Roethlisberger.

To be fair, Lamar Jackson only played in three of those games — but he lost all of them.

The reigning MVP is off to another torrid start but I can’t overlook his poor performances against Pittsburgh. In six games, Lamar is 2-4 with a 66.9 passer rating and four touchdowns to seven interceptions.

Now that the Steelers have a competent QB under centre I expect them to keep dominating the Ravens.

Pittsburgh is a perfect 3-0 since Russell Wilson took over in Week 7 while averaging 30.3 points and 382.3 yards per game. For context, that would rank third and fourth among all teams if sustained for the whole season.

Baltimore is giving up the eighth-most points (25.3) and sixth-most yards (367.9) per game so expect Russ to keep cooking.

Pittsburgh’s defence, meanwhile, allows the second-fewest points (16.2) and eighth-fewest yards (302.7) per game.

Key stat: The Steelers went 6-2 in AFC North games last year (2-0 vs. Ravens).

Week 11 upset predictions

Bengals (+100): I’m splitting hairs by giving out the Bengals (+1.5) as an upset pick. But hey, they’re a dog and I think they’ll win.

Cincinnati came oh-so-close to toppling Baltimore on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 but didn’t and now faces a must-win against the surging Los Angeles Chargers.

The Bengals are putting up boatloads of points but a porous defence has stopped them from reaching their full potential.

Los Angeles’ defence has been elite and I can’t diminish that but I think Joe Burrow’s elite playmaking will win out against a team with no impressive wins on its ledger.

The 6-3 Chargers have beaten the Titans, Browns, Saints, Panthers, Raiders and Broncos while losing to the Steelers, Cardinals and Chiefs.

Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 11/12/2024.

Mavericks vs. Warriors props Nov. 12: Back Irving in Thompson’s return to San Francisco

Klay Thompson returns to San Francisco for the first time since leaving the Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: Thompson’s reign as a Splash Brother was unforgettable but I’m looking to Kyrie Irving to produce for the Dallas Mavericks tonight. Draymond Green is also in line for a big rebounding game.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Warriors props for Nov. 12.

Mavericks vs. Warriors props

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Best Bet: Irving over 25.5 points (-108)

Thompson was acquired to provide efficient tertiary scoring and he hasn’t supplied it yet.

The veteran shooting guard is averaging 13.8 points on 41.8% shooting with two-thirds of his field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc.

Luka Doncic and Thompson are the team’s deep threats which has allowed Irving to do a ton of damage from the mid-range.

Last year, Irving averaged 25.6 points per game while attempting 7.3 threes a night. He’s putting up identical PPG numbers this season but has only attempted 5.8 threes with Thompson in the mix.

That should bode well for his point production against the Warriors.

Golden State has been elite at defending the perimeter but not the mid-range, according to Cleaning the Glass. It’s held opponents to the lowest 3-point percentage (31.9%) but is giving up the eighth-highest mid-range shooting percentage (43.1%).

Irving takes 46% of his shots in the mid-range which ranks in the 97th percentile for all NBA players.

Key stat: Irving has cleared this mark in five of his last seven games while averaging 28.0 points.

Quick pick

Green over 5.5 rebounds (-120): The Mavericks have had a serious rebounding problem this year.

They are 28th in rebounding rate and are giving up the ninth-most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, according to fantasy pros.

Dereck Lively II is officially listed as questionable tonight and his return would be big for Dallas. But he was only playing 23.0 minutes a night before getting hurt and shouldn’t be a massive impact.

Green is still getting plenty of run in his 13th season and has been active on the glass, averaging 5.1 rebounds per game and clearing this mark in three of his last five.

The veteran cleared this mark in both games versus Dallas last year, logging seven and eight boards.