The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles battle for NFC East supremacy on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: Philadelphia has been dismantling teams since its Week 5 bye and I expect that to continue in primetime at home. A.J. Brown is also in line to have a monster game against a weak defence.
Check out my Commanders vs. Eagles best bets for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 14.
Commanders vs. Eagles best bets
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Best Bet: Eagles -3.5 (-106)
Philadelphia ended last season in a tailspin and started this one 2-2.
For a minute, it felt like Nick Siranni’s seat was scorching but the Eagles have righted the ship after a fortuitously-timed bye week.
- Philly is 5-0 since the bye (3-2 ATS)
- With a +82 point differential
- Scoring 29.4 points per game
- From Week 6 onwards, the Eagles are first in defensive EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
Philly has played some of the worst defence the NFL has to offer (Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars) but it’s not like Washington is a stalwart on that side of the ball.
The Commanders allow the fifth-most yards per carry (4.8) and rushing yards per game (142.7) and are 24th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per play.
Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts are almost impossible to contain and I expect them to punish Washington on the ground while Brown torches them through the air.
Key stat: The Eagles are 5-1 against the Commanders over the last three seasons.
Quick pick
Brown over 78.5 receiving yards (-120): I expect Barkley to run wild but am hesitant to take the over on his monster 92.5 rushing total. Instead, I’ll turn to Brown, who has routinely torched his divisional rival.
Brown has 23 catches for 397 yards in four games versus the Commanders since joining the Eagles, clearing this line in three of those contests.
Last year, he went off for 175 and 130 yards against Washington.
DeVonta Smith may be sidelined with a hamstring injury while Marshon Lattimore could make his debut for the Commanders at corner.
The status of either player should impact this line, so keep an eye out, but I expect Brown to clear it regardless.
Brown has gone over this mark in five of six games this season and leads all Eagles in air yards despite missing three games.
Picks made at 10:12 a.m. ET 11/12/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.