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Timberwolves vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Nov. 15: Back Minnesota to win behind Edwards at +300

The Sacramento Kings host the Minnesota Timberwolves in tonight’s NBA Cup nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota has lost three straight but I expect it to pick up a win behind Anthony Edwards. Sacramento is likely without DeMar DeRozan, so I’m targeting De’Aaron Fox as well.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 15.

Timberwolves vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Timberwolves moneyline + Edwards over 24.5 points + Fox over 23.5 points (+300)

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Timberwolves moneyline (-121): Minnesota hasn’t been playing its best basketball lately.

After a 6-3 start to the year, the T-Wolves have dropped three straight — two of which were to the lowly Portland Trail Blazers — while averaging just 100.0 points per game.

But tonight represents a prime bounce-back spot for a team that won 56 games last year.

The Kings are 2-2 in their last four with both wins coming against the Kevin Durant-less Phoenix Suns.

They’re a solid basketball team but are likely without DeRozan (back) who is listed as doubtful. The veteran small forward is averaging 22.9 PPG and was playing over 35 minutes a night. Sacramento sixth man Malik Monk is also out.

Minnesota has a clean bill of health and I expect it to dominate tonight.

SGP legs

Edwards over 24.5 points (-215): Edwards is averaging a career-best 27.8 points per game and was going nuclear from 3-point land before shooting 0-for-8 on Wednesday night.

But he still had 24 points despite a goose egg from deep and that just shows his floor as a scorer.

The fifth-year guard hasn’t gone below 21 points this season and has cleared this mark in seven of 12 games. That includes a 32-point outing in a win against Sacramento on Oct. 24.

Let’s circle back to Edwards’ 3-point game.

Prior to Wednesday, he was shooting 45.3% on 11.6 attempts per night. That’s incredible and one bad game won’t change his willingness to let it fly.

Sacramento allows opponents to shoot 37.0% from deep (24th in NBA), so expect Edwards to do some damage.

Fox over 23.5 points (-220): Fox was the alpha dog on Sacramento last season, averaging a team-high 26.6 points and 20.9 field goal attempts per game.

He still leads the team in both categories this year even though his numbers are slightly down to 24.6 PPG and 18.7 FGA.

That said, he should be taking a boatload of shots tonight and that puts him in a good spot to clear this line on volume alone.

Fox has cleared this mark in six of eight games in November while shooting 49.7% from the field.

NBA picks made at 1:47 p.m. on 11/15/24.

Pistons vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 15: Back Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris

The Toronto Raptors are back home after a winless five-game road trip.

The pregame narrative: For the first time in a while, it seems like Toronto is definitively worse than the Detroit Pistons. I expect Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris to clear their point and 3-point totals, respectively, at Scotiabank Arena.

Check out my Pistons vs. Raptors prop picks for Nov. 15.

Pistons vs. Raptors prop picks

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Best Bet: Cunningham over 23.5 points (-130)

Cunningham is elevating his game in every way this season, averaging career highs in points (23.8), rebounds (7.2), assists (8.5) and effective field goal percentage (51.0%).

I want to specifically target him as a scorer tonight, though, against an awful Raptors defence.

Toronto has the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA (118.4) and the seventh-highest opponent field goal percentage (47.8%).

One problem area for Toronto is the mid-range, which has become Cunningham’s office. Check out these stats, provided by Cleaning the Glass:

The Raptors allow opponents to shoot 44.8% from the mid-range, which is the second-highest mark in the NBA.

Cunningham takes 40.0% of his shots from the mid-range, which is in the 92nd among all NBA players.

The point guard is coming off a horribly inefficient performance against the Milwaukee Bucks where he scored 35 points on 13-of-34 shooting. But I love to see that volume as a prop bettor and will gladly back him against Toronto.

Key stat: Cunningham has cleared this mark in two of his last three games.

Quick pick

Harris over 1.5 threes (+100): Harris has always been an efficient 3-point scorer and I like his chances of nabbing a pair tonight.

The veteran is only shooting 29.1% from deep thanks to an awful start to the season. He went 3-for-20 in October but is scoring at a 37.1% clip beyond the arc since then.

That recent output aligns with his 37.3% average from 3-point range over the previous five seasons with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Harris has cleared this mark in three of his last four games and plays a healthy 34.3 minutes a night.

The Raptors also allow opponents to cash in on 44.0% of their corner 3s (third-highest in NBA) and Harris ranks in the 78th percentile of corner-3-point takers.

Picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET 11/15/2024.

NHL prop picks Nov. 15: Back Dylan Larkin, Ivan Barbashev

I’m targeting two players from Friday’s five-game NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Dylan Larkin is leading the Detroit Red Wings in shots and should continue to pile them up tonight. Elsewhere, Ivan Barbashev is a good bet to find the stat sheet.

Find my NHL prop picks for Nov. 15 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Larkin over 3.5 shots (+115)

Detroit finds itself near the bottom of the Atlantic Division once again after a mediocre start to the year.

Picking up points against bad teams like the Anaheim Ducks will be crucial, and I expect the Red Wings’ captain to lead the charge tonight.

Anaheim allows the most shots per game (35.5) and the most chances per 60 (78.0), according to Natural Stat Trick.

The gap between the Ducks and the second-worst team in chances allowed per 60 (San Jose Sharks, 69.07) is the same as the gap between the Sharks and the 19th-ranked Washington Capitals.

Yeah, they just don’t play defence over there.

Larkin started this season off by going under this number in seven consecutive games. But he’s cleared it in five of eight games since and paces the Red Wings with 42 shots on goal.

Key stat: Larkin had five SOG the last time he played the Ducks.

Quick pick

Barbashev to record a point (-118): Barbashev is having a breakout season with the Vegas Golden Knights, logging eight goals and 17 points in 16 games.

He’s skating on the top line alongside Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev while getting power play time with the second unit.

The Russian has a point in three of his last four games with five total in that span.

Tonight, he’s going up against the Utah Hockey Club, a team allowing the 12th-most shots (29.5) and goals (3.25) per game.

Connor Ingram seems to be the likely candidate in goal and he ranks outside the top 45 in GAA and SV%.

NHL picks made at 11:49 a.m. on 11/15/2024.

NHL prop picks Nov. 15: Back Dylan Larkin, Ivan Barbashev

I’m targeting two players from Friday’s five-game NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Dylan Larkin is leading the Detroit Red Wings in shots and should continue to pile them up tonight. Elsewhere, Ivan Barbashev is a good bet to find the stat sheet.

Find my NHL prop picks for Nov. 15 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Larkin over 3.5 shots (+125)

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Detroit finds itself near the bottom of the Atlantic Division once again after a mediocre start to the year.

Picking up points against bad teams like the Anaheim Ducks will be crucial, and I expect the Red Wings’ captain to lead the charge tonight.

Anaheim allows the most shots per game (35.5) and the most chances per 60 (78.0), according to Natural Stat Trick.

The gap between the Ducks and the second-worst team in chances allowed per 60 (San Jose Sharks, 69.07) is the same as the gap between the Sharks and the 19th-ranked Washington Capitals.

Yeah, they just don’t play defence over there.

Larkin started this season off by going under this number in seven consecutive games. But he’s cleared it in five of eight games since and paces the Red Wings with 42 shots on goal.

Key stat: Larkin had five SOG the last time he played the Ducks.

Quick pick

Barbashev to record a point (-125): Barbashev is having a breakout season with the Vegas Golden Knights, logging eight goals and 17 points in 16 games.

He’s skating on the top line alongside Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev while getting power play time with the second unit.

The Russian has a point in three of his last four games with five total in that span.

Tonight, he’s going up against the Utah Hockey Club, a team allowing the 12th-most shots (29.5) and goals (3.25) per game.

Connor Ingram seems to be the likely candidate in goal and he ranks outside the top 45 in GAA and SV%.

NHL picks made at 11:49 a.m. on 11/15/2024.

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Pistons vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 15: Back Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris

The Toronto Raptors are back home after a winless five-game road trip.

The pregame narrative: For the first time in a while, it seems like Toronto is definitively worse than the Detroit Pistons. I expect Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris to clear their point and 3-point totals, respectively, at Scotiabank Arena.

Check out my Pistons vs. Raptors prop picks for Nov. 15.

Pistons vs. Raptors prop picks

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Best Bet: Cunningham over 25.5 points (-122)

Cunningham is elevating his game in every way this season, averaging career highs in points (23.8), rebounds (7.2), assists (8.5) and effective field goal percentage (51.0%).

I want to specifically target him as a scorer tonight, though, against an awful Raptors defence.

Toronto has the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA (118.4) and the seventh-highest opponent field goal percentage (47.8%).

One problem area for Toronto is the mid-range, which has become Cunningham’s office. Check out these stats, provided by Cleaning the Glass:

The Raptors allow opponents to shoot 44.8% from the mid-range, which is the second-highest mark in the NBA.

Cunningham takes 40.0% of his shots from the mid-range, which is in the 92nd among all NBA players.

The point guard is coming off a horribly inefficient performance against the Milwaukee Bucks where he scored 35 points on 13-of-34 shooting. But I love to see that volume as a prop bettor and will gladly back him against Toronto.

Key stat: Cunningham has cleared this mark in two of his last three games.

Quick pick

Harris over 1.5 threes (+110): Harris has always been an efficient 3-point scorer and I like his chances of nabbing a pair tonight.

The veteran is only shooting 29.1% from deep thanks to an awful start to the season. He went 3-for-20 in October but is scoring at a 37.1% clip beyond the arc since then.

That recent output aligns with his 37.3% average from 3-point range over the previous five seasons with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Harris has cleared this mark in three of his last four games and plays a healthy 34.3 minutes a night.

The Raptors also allow opponents to cash in on 44.0% of their corner 3s (third-highest in NBA) and Harris ranks in the 78th percentile of corner-3-point takers.

Picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET 11/15/2024.

Best NFL Week 11 prop bets: Back Freiermuth, Chubb and Samuel on Sunday

One tight end, one running back and one wide receiver make up this week’s prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Pat Freiermuth has a nice matchup against the Baltimore Ravens to clear a modest receiving total. I’m also looking to Nick Chubb and Deebo Samuel for production.

Check out the best NFL Week 11 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 11 prop bets

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Best bet: Freiermuth over 27.5 receiving yards (-118)

Russell Wilson has the Pittsburgh Steelers cooking.

The Black and Gold are 3-0 with him under centre, averaging 30.3 points and 382.3 yards per game. Talk about a reversal of fortune for a team that had to deal with Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky last season.

Freiermuth only cleared this line in one of Wilson’s three starts (51 yards vs. NYJ), but he’s had at least two catches in each contest and is the team’s best receiving tight end.

He should carve out a sizeable role on Sunday against a struggling Ravens secondary.

Baltimore is allowing the most passing yards per game (294.9) and the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends (68.0), according to CBS Sports.

The unit also ranks 30th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.

Containing George Pickens will be priority No. 1 for the Ravens, and that should leave space for Freiermuth to produce across the middle of the field.

Key stat: Twelve tight ends have cleared this total against Baltimore in 10 games.

Quick picks

Chubb over 61.5 rushing yards (-117): Chubb has had a slow start to the season after returning from a devastating knee injury but this screams breakout game.

Before Cleveland’s Week 10 bye, the veteran running back had two disappointing outings:

Week 9: 15 carries for 39 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers (2.6 YPC)
Week 8: 16 carries for 52 yards against the Baltimore Ravens (3.3 YPC)

That’s not what we’re used to seeing out of Chubb but Los Angeles and Baltimore own two of the league’s best run-stopping defences.

They rank third and second in defensive EPA per rush while this week’s opponent, the New Orleans Saints, ranks 31st.

The Saints also allow the second-most yards per carry (5.1), so if Chubb gets around 15 carries again, he should smash this total.

Samuel over 54.5 receiving yards (-114): I’ll happily back Deebo whenever he plays the Seahawks.

I took the over on his 71.5 rushing and receiving total against Seattle in Week 6 and he finished that game with 117 scrimmage yards (102 receiving).

He’s gone over this receiving mark in seven of eight games versus his divisional rival with some absurd averages in those matchups:

6.1 catches, 8.4 targets, 109.6 receiving yards

Christian McCaffrey is back for the Niners but that should only help Samuel’s case. Teams have to dedicate bodies to stopping CMC, meaning there will be more opportunities for the talented WR to shine.

Seattle started its season off 3-0 but has lost five of its last six. In that span, it has allowed 29.6 PPG and has the second-worst defensive EPA per dropback.

Picks made at 9:24 a.m. ET on 11/15/2024.

Mavericks vs. Jazz props Nov. 14: Back Irving and Lively in Utah

Tonight’s only NBA game is a matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz at 9:00 p.m. ET.

The pregame narrative: Dallas is a massive road favourite against the downtrodden Jazz, who are 2-8 with the league’s worst net rating. I expect Kyrie Irving to clear his point total and Dereck Lively II to be active on the glass.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Jazz props for Nov. 14.

Mavericks vs. Jazz props

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Best Bet: Irving over 24.5 points (-125)

This should simply come down to shot volume for Irving.

I backed Dallas’ point guard to go over 25.5 points against the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday and that missed, but he still scored 21 on efficient 8-of-13 shooting.

He was third to Luka Doncic and Klay Thompson in field goal attempts in that game, who both shot below 50.0%. Maybe the Mavs would have won that game had Irving gotten a few more looks, but I digress.

Kyrie is on fire, shooting an incredible 61.1% from the field this month and 48.3% from deep.

On Sunday he dropped 43 points on the Denver Nuggets on 17-of-22 shooting (77.3%). The game before that he put up 29 against the Phoenix Suns while making 10-of-17 (58.8%).

The Jazz are a horrible defensive team that gives up the second-most points per game to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros. This should be a game where Irving leads the charge.

Key stat: Irving has cleared this mark in five of his last eight games while averaging 27.1 points.

Quick pick

Lively over 8.5 rebounds (+100): The Mavericks are getting solid production out of Daniel Gafford but could use Lively more.

Dallas sits 26th in rebounding rate and the 7-foot-1 sophomore is a fiend on the glass — and an efficient scorer to boot (70.0 FG% this season).

He’s recorded double-digit boards in three of seven games while averaging 8.1 rebounds on just 23.1 minutes a night.

Lively had eight boards against the Warriors in his return from injury and should feast against a Jazz team allowing the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres.

Picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET 11/14/2024.

Mavericks vs. Jazz props Nov. 14: Back Irving and Lively in Utah

Tonight’s only NBA game is a matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz at 9:00 p.m. ET.

The pregame narrative: Dallas is a massive road favourite against the downtrodden Jazz, who are 2-8 with the league’s worst net rating. I expect Kyrie Irving to clear his point total and Dereck Lively II to be active on the glass.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Jazz props for Nov. 14.

Mavericks vs. Jazz props

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Best Bet: Irving over 24.5 points (-117)

This should simply come down to shot volume for Irving.

I backed Dallas’ point guard to go over 25.5 points against the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday and that missed, but he still scored 21 on efficient 8-of-13 shooting.

He was third to Luka Doncic and Klay Thompson in field goal attempts in that game, who both shot below 50.0%. Maybe the Mavs would have won that game had Irving gotten a few more looks, but I digress.

Kyrie is on fire, shooting an incredible 61.1% from the field this month and 48.3% from deep.

On Sunday he dropped 43 points on the Denver Nuggets on 17-of-22 shooting (77.3%). The game before that he put up 29 against the Phoenix Suns while making 10-of-17 (58.8%).

The Jazz are a horrible defensive team that gives up the second-most points per game to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros. This should be a game where Irving leads the charge.

Key stat: Irving has cleared this mark in five of his last eight games while averaging 27.1 points.

Quick pick

Lively over 8.5 rebounds (-107): The Mavericks are getting solid production out of Daniel Gafford but could use Lively more.

Dallas sits 26th in rebounding rate and the 7-foot-1 sophomore is a fiend on the glass — and an efficient scorer to boot (70.0 FG% this season).

He’s recorded double-digit boards in three of seven games while averaging 8.1 rebounds on just 23.1 minutes a night.

Lively had eight boards against the Warriors in his return from injury and should feast against a Jazz team allowing the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres.

Picks made at 8:51 a.m. ET 11/14/2024.

Commanders vs. Eagles Week 11 same-game parlay predictions: Back Philly to win, Hurts to score at +380

The Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders begin Week 11 with a huge divisional showdown.

The pregame narrative: Washington has surprised everyone this season but I believe Philadelphia is a cut above and should win at home. Back Jalen Hurts to keep his scoring streak alive and A.J. Brown to have a night through the air.

Check out my Commanders vs. Eagles same-game parlay predictions for Thursday Night Football.

Commanders vs. Eagles predictions

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Parlay: Eagles moneyline + Hurts to score + Brown over 80.5 receiving yards (+380)

Eagles moneyline (-182): The Commanders went from having the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft to owning a 7-3 record through Week 10.

That’s largely thanks to the stellar play of that pick, QB Jayden Daniels.

I don’t want to rag on the Commanders because they’ve been a great story but Philadelphia is hitting its stride and that should terrify every team in the NFC.

Since their Week 5 bye:

The Eagles are 5-0
Have a +82 point differential
Are averaging 29.4 PPG
Have the No. 1 defensive EPA per play

Hurts and Saquon Barkley form the nucleus of a rushing attack averaging the second-most yards per game.

Washington allows the fifth-most yards per carry (4.8) and rushing yards per game (142.7), and that’s going to be a problem.

Back the Birds at home.

Other parlay picks

Hurts to score (-155): Speaking of Hurts, the quarterback is on a rampage in the red zone, scoring eight touchdowns in his last four games with eight total scores in that span.

Our Jordan Horrbin highlighted Hurts as one of his TD scorer picks last week and I’ll re-iterate two of the stats he highlighted:

Hurts had 15 red zone carries in Weeks 7-10 compared to 12 red zone passing attempts.

His 12 carries inside the five-yard line lead all QBs and is tied for fourth among all ball carriers.

Barkley is a TD-scoring machine in his own right but Hurts loves to call his own number and has much better odds (Barkley is -295).

The Commanders give up the 10th-most red zone scoring attempts on the road, so he should have plenty of opportunities to find pay dirt.

Brown over 80.5 receiving yards (-118): I gave out the over on Brown’s receiving total as one of my best bets for TNF and will gladly double dip.

The superstar wide receiver has hauled in 23 receptions for 397 yards in four games versus Washington since joining Philly, topping this line in three of those contests.

He’s also gone over this line in four of five games this season and is coming off a 107-yard outing against the Dallas Cowboys.

The Commanders acquired star cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline but he won’t play on Thursday due to a hamstring injury.

Washington’s secondary has been solid but Lattimore would definitely make a difference.

To hammer home how important Brown is to this offence (and give a little more reassurance to my moneyline pick): The Eagles are 6-0 when he’s in the lineup this year.

Picks made at 1:39 p.m. ET 11/13/2024.

Suns vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Nov. 13: Fade Devin Booker and De’Aaron Fox at +250

The Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings meet for the second time this week.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix is on a back-to-back without Kevin Durant but I still like it to cover a massively teased-up spread. Fading Devin Booker and De’Aaron Fox rounds out this +250 ticket.

Check out my Suns vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 13.

Suns vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Suns +10.5 + Booker under 31.5 points + Fox under 26.5 points (+250)

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Suns +13.5 (-278): Sacramento beat Phoenix on Saturday night, 127-118, but that game required overtime.

Durant didn’t play but the Suns fought well and I expect them to battle once again without their star power forward.

The Kings are off to a middling 6-5 start. They’ve covered this line three times, but all of those wins were against bottom-six teams in net rating (Jazz, Raptors, Trail Blazers).

Phoenix is 9-2 and Mike Budenholzer has the squad playing relentless defence.

The Suns are holding opponents to the sixth-lowest effective FG% (52.7) and ninth-lowest mid-range shooting percentage (40.9%), per Cleaning the Glass.

Sacramento takes 40.5% of its shots from the mid-range, the most in the NBA.

SGP legs

Booker under 31.5 points (-220): Booker is one of the league’s premier scorers but this line asks a lot of him.

He did drop 31 last night but that was against the Jazz. Utah has the third-worst defensive rating and seventh-highest opponent field goal percentage.

Sacramento is a much better defensive team, ranking 12th in defensive rating and 11th in opponent FG%.

This has also proven to be a tough matchup for Booker. Since the start of last season, he is 0-6 against this line when playing the Kings, averaging 22.8 points per game.

Booker is unquestionably the guy in Phoenix with KD sidelined, but that cuts both ways. Mike Brown can solely focus his game plan around slowing the shooting guard, so don’t expect a nuclear performance.

He’s also gone under this line in six of nine without Durant since the start of last season (1-4 in last five).

Fox under 26.5 points (-210): Earlier I spoke about how Phoenix makes life difficult on its opponents in the mid-range.

Fox takes 45% of his shots from that area of the court which is in the 90th percentile of all players.

He’s still attempting plenty of shots with DeRozan in the mix but adding a career 21.3 PPG scorer naturally takes food off the table.

Fox has gone under this mark in seven of 11 games this season. He scored just 21 points on 43.5% shooting in 41 minutes against the Suns on Saturday.

NBA picks made at 12:13 p.m. on 11/13/24.

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