One tight end, one running back and one wide receiver make up this week’s prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Pat Freiermuth has a nice matchup against the Baltimore Ravens to clear a modest receiving total. I’m also looking to Nick Chubb and Deebo Samuel for production.
Check out the best NFL Week 11 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 11 prop bets
Go to full NFL Week 11 betting markets.
Best bet: Freiermuth over 27.5 receiving yards (-118)
Russell Wilson has the Pittsburgh Steelers cooking.
The Black and Gold are 3-0 with him under centre, averaging 30.3 points and 382.3 yards per game. Talk about a reversal of fortune for a team that had to deal with Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky last season.
Freiermuth only cleared this line in one of Wilson’s three starts (51 yards vs. NYJ), but he’s had at least two catches in each contest and is the team’s best receiving tight end.
He should carve out a sizeable role on Sunday against a struggling Ravens secondary.
Baltimore is allowing the most passing yards per game (294.9) and the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends (68.0), according to CBS Sports.
The unit also ranks 30th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.
Containing George Pickens will be priority No. 1 for the Ravens, and that should leave space for Freiermuth to produce across the middle of the field.
Key stat: Twelve tight ends have cleared this total against Baltimore in 10 games.
Quick picks
Chubb over 61.5 rushing yards (-117): Chubb has had a slow start to the season after returning from a devastating knee injury but this screams breakout game.
Before Cleveland’s Week 10 bye, the veteran running back had two disappointing outings:
- Week 9: 15 carries for 39 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers (2.6 YPC)
- Week 8: 16 carries for 52 yards against the Baltimore Ravens (3.3 YPC)
That’s not what we’re used to seeing out of Chubb but Los Angeles and Baltimore own two of the league’s best run-stopping defences.
They rank third and second in defensive EPA per rush while this week’s opponent, the New Orleans Saints, ranks 31st.
The Saints also allow the second-most yards per carry (5.1), so if Chubb gets around 15 carries again, he should smash this total.
Samuel over 54.5 receiving yards (-114): I’ll happily back Deebo whenever he plays the Seahawks.
I took the over on his 71.5 rushing and receiving total against Seattle in Week 6 and he finished that game with 117 scrimmage yards (102 receiving).
He’s gone over this receiving mark in seven of eight games versus his divisional rival with some absurd averages in those matchups:
- 6.1 catches, 8.4 targets, 109.6 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey is back for the Niners but that should only help Samuel’s case. Teams have to dedicate bodies to stopping CMC, meaning there will be more opportunities for the talented WR to shine.
Seattle started its season off 3-0 but has lost five of its last six. In that span, it has allowed 29.6 PPG and has the second-worst defensive EPA per dropback.
Picks made at 9:24 a.m. ET on 11/15/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.