Avery Perri

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns meet for an AFC North battle on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh (8-2) and Cleveland (2-8) have opposite records but I’ll bank points with the home team. On the prop market, Jaylen Warren has value to clear a very modest rushing line.

Check out my Steelers vs. Browns best bets for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 21.

Steelers vs. Browns best bets

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Best Bet: Browns +4 (-113)

Pittsburgh is rolling but this screams “trap game” to me.

The Steelers have a special way of playing up to their opponents and playing down to their opponents — and I don’t expect them to coast by in a divisional matchup.

• Mike Tomlin’s group has won five straight but the last two were by a combined three points.
  
• Pittsburgh failed to score a touchdown in Week 11 but won thanks to six Chris Boswell field goals.
  
• The Steelers rank 30th in red zone scoring percentage (44.44%).

Cleveland, meanwhile, has looked much better with Jameis Winston under centre, despite losing back-to-back games by two scores. Before that, it beat the Baltimore Ravens, 29-24, at home.

Everything would point to backing the red-hot Steelers ATS but Pittsburgh has lost two of its last four games as a favourite, according to Team Rankings, and had two tough losses last season as a large favourite (Week 13 vs. ARI, Week 14 vs. NE).

AFC North matchups are never a walk in the park and I expect the Browns to throw everything they have at the Steelers on Thursday.

Key stat: Cleveland is 2-1-1 against this line in its last four games against Pittsburgh.

Quick pick

Warren over 37.5 rushing yards (-112): Warren had a slow start to the year battling through injury but is starting to find his footing.

The third-year back is 4-0 against this line in his last four games while averaging 49.3 yards at 4.5 YPC.

Warren had at least nine carries in each of those games and should see an increased snap count to take the load of Najee Harris on a short week.

Cleveland is also horrible at stopping the run, allowing the sixth-most yards per attempt (4.8) while ranking 25th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.

Warren had 129 rushing yards in his last game against the Browns, including a 74-yard touchdown run. But even if you take that chunk play away he still comfortably cleared this line.

Picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET 11/19/2024.

The Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys meet for an intrastate showdown on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Nico Collins is back and I expect him to go berserk against an awful Cowboys defence. And without Dak Prescott under centre, Rico Dowdle should get a heavy workload as Dallas’ RB1.

Check out my Texans vs. Cowboys prop picks for Monday Night Football on Nov. 18.

Texans vs. Cowboys prop picks

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Best Bet: Collins over 72.5 receiving yards (-115)

Simply put, when Collins is on the field he’s one of the best in the game.

As Houston’s star wideout exited Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills with a hamstring injury, he had accrued a then-league-best 567 receiving yards — with at least 75 in every game.

Collins has cleared this line in seven straight regular season games dating back to last season and is averaging 97.2 receiving yards per game with C.J. Stroud under centre.

The Texans were hoping he could return last week against the Detroit Lions but gave him an extra week and now bring him back in a much softer landing spot.

Dallas’ defence is a top-to-bottom mess and ranks 25th in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com. The two biggest concerns for this wager are that teams have run all over the Cowboys and there is risk of a blowout.

But Collins practically clears this line in his sleep and should return to his insanely high target share (especially without the injured Stefon Diggs).

Key stat: Collins ranked fourth in targets per routes run last year (32.0%), according to RotoWire.

Quick pick

Dowdle over 77.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114): Cooper Rush shouldn’t inspire much confidence in anyone but I think Dowdle will still get his looks.

The running back turned 12 carries into 53 yards against the vaunted Philadelphia Eagles defence last week and also hauled in all three of his targets (albeit only for three yards).

If he gets a similar workload tonight, I like his chances of going over this number.

Dowdle has averaged a healthy 4.5 YPC this season behind a dreadful offensive line and has also put up 25-plus receiving yards in three of the last four weeks.

The Texans’ defence is stout but Mike McCarthy can’t justify giving Ezekiel Elliott — who is averaging 3.2 YPC this season — any looks that aren’t on the goal line.

Dowdle has logged over 50.0% of snaps in back-to-back weeks after not clearing that mark before this season. That’s a good sign in my book.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 11/18/2024.

This is shaping up to be an elite NFL Sunday.

At 1:00 p.m. ET, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens battle for AFC North supremacy. Then, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen lock horns before the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals meet on Sunday Night Football.

Check out our Week 11 NFL betting guide, featuring staff picks and predictions to help you make the best wagers.

NFL betting guide: Week 11

Only two of Sunday’s 12 games have spreads of seven points or greater.

The three aforementioned games are the slate’s main event but there are other great matchups, including a showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears.

Caleb Williams has looked like a rookie lately but can change the narrative by snapping Chicago’s 10-game losing streak against its divisional rival. Jordan Love and Co. have other ideas.

In the afternoon window, Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks, who they’ve dominated since the running back arrived in The Bay.

Here are some quick betting notes for Sunday:

• Highest total: Ravens vs. Steelers (48.5)
• Biggest spreads: Jaguars vs. Lions (-13.5); Raiders vs. Dolphins (-7.0), Seahawks vs. 49ers (-6.5)
• Four teams have odds of +200 or longer to win (Bears, Raiders, Seahawks, Titans)

Lines and odds are listed as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 15.

For the latest, visit our NFL Week 11 markets. And be sure to check out the latest injury news from around the league.

Now, see how our staff is wagering on this slate.

Week 11 betting predictions

If you need a one-stop shop for spread bets, we have you covered.

Our NFL Week 11 ATS picks, via Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs and Chris Toman, provide a recommendation against the spread for every game.

We have plenty of other picks, too.

Upset picks: The Steelers have dominated the Ravens in recent years with a revolving door of uninspiring quarterbacks. Pittsburgh, now with a reinvigorated Russell Wilson under centre, is one of Perri’s two plus-money picks.

Parlay picks: Horrobin is also targeting Pittsburgh (this time ATS), alongside one moneyline pick and one teased-up spread to form his +307 parlay.

TD picks: The Bills are without two of their top weapons, meaning Allen should be willing to call his own number in the red zone. He’s one of Horrobin’s three plus-money picks to score.

Prop picks: Perri has a three-pack of prop recommendations on Pat Freiermuth, Nick Chubb and Deebo Samuel this week.

Chiefs vs. Bills same-game parlay: Bills fans are obviously going to remember the three heart-breaking playoff losses, but things haven’t been all bad against the Chiefs. Horrobin is backing Buffalo to win as part of his +420 SGP.

Chiefs vs. Bills prop picks: Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are out for Buffalo. What does that mean? Well, Steven Psihogios expects Dawson Knox to step up. He also is betting on a certain KC star to shine.

Bengals vs. Chargers SNF prop picks: Ja’Marr Chase stole the show a week ago. This week, Horrobin expects him to go under his reception prop. He is, however, eyeing a big performance from J.K. Dobbins.

Full SNF and MNF predictions coming soon…