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EPL Matchday 12 picks and predictions: Bet on Liverpool, Ipswich Town on Sunday

I’ve got two picks for the Premier League’s return this weekend.

The pregame narrative: Ipswich Town went into the international break on a heater and I expect it to stifle a struggling Manchester United side. Also, bet on Liverpool to pick up where it left off — dominating teams.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 12 picks.

EPL Matchday 12 picks

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Best Bet: Liverpool halftime/full time (-124)

Liverpool fans were left wondering if anyone could fill Jurgen Klopp’s shoes when the legendary manager stepped down last year.

It’s still very early, but Arne Slot looks to be legit.

The Dutchman has Liverpool sitting atop the table with a 9-1-1 record and +15 goal differential. The Reds’ defence has been impregnable, conceding a league-low six goals, four fewer than any other team.

And in the Champions League, Liverpool is 4-0-0 with just one goal conceded and 10 scored.

This weekend’s match against last-place Southampton should be a layup. The Saints are 1-1-9 with a league-worst -14 goal differential and seven goals scored.

I was debating backing Liverpool to score over 2.5 goals at -109 but think this is a safer play.

Barring a penalty, I can’t picture how Southampton finds the net. Liverpool is 6-1-0 in its last seven EPL fixtures but has only scored three-plus goals in one of those games.

Look for the Reds to score early and uneventfully close things out.

Key stat: Liverpool (21) has scored three times as many goals as Southampton (seven).

Quick pick

Ipswich Town to win or tie (+123): Manchester United has been a disaster this season.

The Red Devils are 4-3-4, winning just two of their last seven EPL fixtures. They’ve scored the fifth-fewest goals (12) in the Premiership and aren’t getting production out of top players like Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford.

Erik ten Hag has been sacked and I’ll need to see something out of Ruben Amorim, who will make his managerial debut on Sunday, before feeling confident in Man United.

Ipswich Town is coming off a 2-1 win against Tottenham in North London and drew Leicester City, 1-1, before that.

The squad has cashed this bet in six of its last nine EPL fixtures and is in a good spot to pick up a point at home.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 11/22/24.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets prop picks Nov. 22: With Doncic out, back Irving and Lively

Friday’s matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets is lacking serious star power.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is out and Nikola Jokic is questionable after missing the last three games and yesterday’s practice for personal reasons. In their absence, I expect Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively to step up.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Nuggets prop picks for Nov. 22.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets prop picks

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Best Bet: Irving over 25.5 points (-124)

Irving can’t miss right now but has routinely fallen under this line due to shot volume.

In November, the veteran guard is averaging 24.1 points per game on incredible 59.0/50.0/85.7 shooting splits. He’s 3-6 against this line this month, though, while attempting a middling 15.4 shots per game.

But he should see a serious uptick in volume with Doncic — who averages 22.6 FGA — sidelined.

Also, one of the games where Irving cleared this total was against the Nuggets on Nov. 10. In that contest, he went nuclear for 43 points on 17-of-22 shooting.

I don’t expect that to be replicated but will feel great about this bet if he takes anywhere near 22 shots.

Denver’s biggest defensive weakness is in the short midrange and the rim. Irving is an elite finisher in tight and doesn’t need to do damage beyond the arc to score.

With Jokic unlikely to play and Aaron Gordon out, there should be little resistance for the crafty guard getting to the rim.

Key stat: Irving has averaged 29.4 points in 12 games for Dallas without Doncic, cashing this bet in five of the previous six.

Quick pick

Lively over 14.5 points and rebounds (-124): All signs are pointing to Jokic missing this game, and if that’s the case it should be open season on the glass for Lively.

If the reigning MVP does suit up, it will make this bet a little tougher, but I still like the sophomore’s chances.

Lively doesn’t get a lot of run for the Mavericks but makes the most of his limited opportunities. In 23.4 minutes a night, he is averaging 8.6 points and 6.8 rebounds on 69.0% shooting.

The Nuggets are allowing the eighth-most paint points per game and Lively hasn’t taken a single shot outside of 14 feet from the basket this season, according to Cleaning the Glass.

In his last game against Denver (which Jokic played in), Lively had 14 points and eight rebounds coming off the bench.

Picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET 11/15/2024.

Best NBA prop bet Nov. 21: Back Cade Cunningham on Thursday

I’m targeting Cade Cunningham as my best NBA prop bet tonight.

The pregame narrative: Cunningham has been putting up career-best numbers in points and assists and should stuff the stat sheet against the Charlotte Hornets.

Check out the best NBA prop bet for Nov. 21

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Best bet: Cunningham over 32.5 points/assists (-125)

Cunningham is averaging career highs in points (23.3), rebounds (7.3) and assists (8.8).

He hasn’t been particularly efficient from a scoring standpoint but ranks fourth league-wide in helpers and sees a nice matchup tonight:

Charlotte is 19th in defensive rating
The Hornets allow the 10th-most assists per game
They allow the ninth-most assists per game to PGs, according to Fantasy Pros

Cunningham narrowly fell under this line against Charlotte on Nov. 6 with a 20-point, 10-assist triple-double. But he also shot 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the field in that game, which is his third-lowest mark of the season.

Since then, the fourth-year point guard is 4-3 against this line with at least 30 points/assists in six of those games.

Considering Charlotte struggles to defend the midrange, he should have a bounce-back shooting night.

Cunningham takes 39% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 72nd percentile of all NBA players, per Cleaning the Glass.

Key stat: Cunningham leads the Pistons in field goal attempts (19.6/game) and ranks eighth in the NBA in potential assists (14.6/game).

Picks made at 2:38 p.m. ET on 11/21/2024.

Best NFL Week 12 prop bets: Back Jayden Daniels, Nico Collins, De’Von Achane

I’m targeting three big names for these NFL Week 12 prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Jayden Daniels faces the Dallas Cowboys for the first time and I expect him to have a game. Elsewhere, bet on Nico Collins and De’Von Achane to clear their respective receiving and rushing totals.

Check out the best NFL Week 12 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 12 prop bets

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Best bet: Daniels over 39.5 rushing yards (-118)

Daniels seemingly had the Offensive Rookie of the Year on lock before a pair of rough games against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles.

In those contests, he produced just one touchdown while rushing for a combined 23 yards.

But let’s not forget what the 2024 No. 2 pick was doing before that:

Led Washington to a 7-2 record
13 total TDs, three INTs
71.4% completion rate, 106.7 passer rating
459 rushing yards (51.0 per game)

Daniels was lighting the league on fire and cleared this line in six of nine contests, landing between 35-39 rushing yards in two of the outliers.

He is electric on the ground and calls his own number often, averaging north of 8.0 rushing attempts per game. The Commanders get a reeling Cowboys defence on Sunday and should lean on the rookie’s legs.

Key stat: Dallas is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (151.0) and the fourth-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, per CBS Sports.

Quick picks

Collins over 73.5 receiving yards (-117): Collins’ first touch in his return from a five-game injured reserve stint was a 77-yard touchdown … that got called back due to a holding penalty.

He ended up finishing under this line with four catches for 54 yards but looked fresh and only played 47% of snaps in a blowout win.

Back at home, I expect Collins to return to his pre-injury form as one of the best receivers in the NFL.

He cleared this line in all five games while averaging 113.4 yards per game.

Collins ranked fourth in targets per routes run last year (32.0%), according to RotoWire, and should be heavily featured in Houston’s offence against the Tennessee Titans.

Achane over 67.5 rushing yards (-115): The New England Patriots used to be a tough team to run against but let’s not live in the past.

New England is giving up the fifth-most rushing yards per game to tailbacks (116.6) at the eighth-highest yards per attempt (4.67).

Achane was on the receiving end of a big hit that knocked him out of the game the last time he played he Pats and naturally fell under this line.

But in the five games since returning, he is 3-2 against this line while averaging 69.4 yards at 5.3 yards per attempt.

I expect Miami to torch its division rival behind a run-heavy game script.

Picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET on 11/21/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 21: Back Cade Cunningham and Stephon Castle

I’m targeting a pair of guards in today’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Cade Cunningham has been putting up career-best numbers in points and assists and should stuff the stat sheet against the Charlotte Hornets. Elsewhere, bet on Stephon Castle to light up the Utah Jazz.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 21.

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Best bet: Cunningham over 32.5 points/assists (-103)

Cunningham is averaging career highs in points (23.3), rebounds (7.3) and assists (8.8).

He hasn’t been particularly efficient from a scoring standpoint but ranks fourth league-wide in helpers and sees a nice matchup tonight:

Charlotte is 19th in defensive rating
The Hornets allow the 10th-most assists per game
They allow the ninth-most assists per game to PGs, according to Fantasy Pros

Cunningham narrowly fell under this line against Charlotte on Nov. 6 with a 20-point, 10-assist triple-double. But he also shot 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the field in that game, which is his third-lowest mark of the season.

Since then, the fourth-year point guard is 4-3 against this line with at least 30 points/assists in six of those games.

Considering Charlotte struggles to defend the midrange, he should have a bounce-back shooting night.

Cunningham takes 39% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 72nd percentile of all NBA players, per Cleaning the Glass.

Key stat: Cunningham leads the Pistons in field goal attempts (19.6/game) and ranks eighth in the NBA in potential assists (14.6/game).

Quick picks

Castle over 14.5 points (-103): Castle has had a rough start to his NBA career.

The No. 4 pick is going the Scoot Henderson route, making just 38.2% of his field goal attempts while chucking up 9.1 shots per game.

But things have been getting better and he has a nice matchup tonight.

Castle is averaging 14.4 points per game across his last seven while shooting 43.8% from the field. Not great, but it’s an improvement.

Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell are both out tonight, meaning someone else will have to step up.

The Jazz are the league’s worst team at defending the midrange (45.0 opponent FG%) and rank 29th in defending the rim (70.8 opponent FG%).

Castle takes 37% of his shots at the rim and 29% from the midrange.

Picks made at 2:38 p.m. ET on 11/21/2024.

NHL prop picks Nov. 21: Back David Pastrnak and Martin Necas

Tonight’s NHL prop picks feature David Pastrnak and Martin Necas.

The pregame narrative: The Boston Bruins’ poor play got head coach Jim Montgomery fired and I expect Pastrnak to step up with the pressure on. Elsewhere, Martin Necas should continue his red-hot start.

Find my NHL prop picks for Nov. 21 below.

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Best Bet: Pastrnak over 4.5 shots (+125)

Pastrnak recorded zero shots in a 5-1 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets when the Bruins last played on Monday.

That was the breaking point for Cam Neely and Co., who decided to fire their Jack Adams Award-winning head coach despite his stellar .715 regular season points percentage.

I think that was a dumb move but don’t doubt it will motivate Boston to play better.

Pastrnak is one of the league’s best goalscorers but has been snakebitten this month, scoring just twice in nine games. He’s gone under this total in seven of those contests but had exactly four shots on goal four times.

The Utah Hockey Club aren’t a great defensive team by any metric and allow the 13th most shots per game (29.2).

Key stat: Pastrnak leads all Bruins with 155 chances and 82 shots this season, per Natural Stat Trick.

Quick picks

Necas over 2.5 shots (-163): Necas is having a breakout season.

The Carolina Hurricanes centre has ripped home 11 goals and 30 points through 18 games, putting himself on a 136-point pace.

Will he sustain that level of production? It’s unlikely, considering his previous career-high was 71 points back in 2022-23. But the Czechian is firing at will, and I expect that to continue.

Necas has cleared this mark in five straight games and seven of nine in November.

Carolina’s opponent, the New Jersey Devils, doesn’t give up many shots but this is a very attainable number for a player on the top of his game.

NHL picks made at 10:45 a.m. on 11/21/2024.

NHL prop picks Nov. 21: Back David Pastrnak and Martin Necas

Tonight’s NHL prop picks feature David Pastrnak and Martin Necas.

The pregame narrative: The Boston Bruins’ poor play got head coach Jim Montgomery fired and I expect Pastrnak to step up with the pressure on. Elsewhere, Martin Necas should continue his red-hot start.

Find my NHL prop picks for Nov. 21 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Pastrnak over 4.5 shots (+110)

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Pastrnak recorded zero shots in a 5-1 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets when the Bruins last played on Monday.

That was the breaking point for Cam Neely and Co., who decided to fire their Jack Adams Award-winning head coach despite his stellar .715 regular season points percentage.

I think that was a dumb move but don’t doubt it will motivate Boston to play better.

Pastrnak is one of the league’s best goalscorers but has been snakebitten this month, scoring just twice in nine games. He’s gone under this total in seven of those contests but had exactly four shots on goal four times.

The Utah Hockey Club aren’t a great defensive team by any metric and allow the 13th most shots per game (29.2).

Key stat: Pastrnak leads all Bruins with 155 chances and 82 shots this season, per Natural Stat Trick.

Quick picks

Necas over 2.5 shots (-139): Necas is having a breakout season.

The Carolina Hurricanes centre has ripped home 11 goals and 30 points through 18 games, putting himself on a 136-point pace.

Will he sustain that level of production? It’s unlikely, considering his previous career-high was 71 points back in 2022-23. But the Czechian is firing at will, and I expect that to continue.

Necas has cleared this mark in five straight games and seven of nine in November.

Carolina’s opponent, the New Jersey Devils, doesn’t give up many shots but this is a very attainable number for a player on the top of his game.

NHL picks made at 10:45 a.m. on 11/21/2024.

Steelers vs. Browns Week 12 same-game parlay predictions: Back Winston, Warren at +340

Two AFC North teams heading in opposite directions meet on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) look to be Super Bowl contenders while the Cleveland Browns (2-8) are back in a familiar spot … the basement. But I’ll back the Browns to cover a teased-up spread at home alongside Jameis Winston and Jaylen Warren props.

Check out my Steelers vs. Browns same-game parlay predictions for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 21.

Steelers vs. Browns predictions

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Parlay: Browns +7.5 + Winston over 189.5 passing yards + Warren over 36.5 rushing yards (+340)

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Browns +7.5 (-215): This has all the makings of a trap game for Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are coming off two massive wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Washington Commanders, taking those by a combined three points with a +3 turnover differential.

I can’t see a blowout coming on a short week, on the road, in inclement weather, against a divisional rival.

Cleveland’s season has been a disaster with Deshaun Watson flopping from the get-go and the defence regressing. But Jameis Winston has been an upgrade, throwing for north of 320 yards per game with six touchdowns to three interceptions.

These teams tend to play close games regardless of the circumstances, anyway.

Since the 2021 playoffs — when the Browns beat the Steelers 48-37 — Cleveland is 4-2 against this line versus Pittsburgh.

Other parlay picks

Winston over 189.5 passing yards (-265): NFLWeather.com is calling for a chilly night with 10-mph sustained winds, rain, and snow showers.

If that doesn’t sound like passing weather it’s because it’s not. But Winston can let it fly and this line should be well within reach regardless of the conditions.

As mentioned earlier, the veteran QB is averaging a healthy amount of yards behind some ridiculous passing volume:

Week 11 vs. Saints: 30-of-46, 395 passing yards
Week 9 vs. Chargers: 26-of-46, 235 passing yards
Week 8 vs. Ravens 27-of-41, 334 passing yards

He’s attempted over 40 passes each time out, which speaks to how underwhelming Cleveland’s running game has been — even with Nick Chubb back in the mix.

The Steelers are likely going to stack the box and make Winston beat them with his arm. Even if it’s via dozens of checkdowns, I think he’ll have enough volume to clear this mark.

Go to Steelers vs. Browns betting markets

Warren over 36.5 rushing yards (-112): Najee Harris is having a resurgent year as Pittsburgh’s bell-cow but Warren deserves some love, too.

The third-year back is 4-0 against this line in his last four while averaging 49.3 yards on 4.5 YPC.

Warren has game-breaking speed and ripped off a 74-yard touchdown run when he last played the Browns in 2023. That occurred during a five-game stretch where he averaged 85.2 rushing yards and went 5-0 against this line.

All that is to say he’s a capable back who had a slow start this season due to injury.

Cleveland can’t stop the run and allows the sixth-most yards per attempt (4.8) while ranking 25th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback. Warren should be involved plenty.

Picks made at 8:32 a.m. ET 11/21/2024.

NFL Week 12 upset picks: Back Giants, Bears to come through as underdogs

The New York Giants and Chicago Bears headline these NFL Week 12 upset picks.

The pregame narrative: A quarterback change has me backing the Giants to win as home underdogs. Elsewhere, the Bears are catching a Minnesota Vikings team which has looked a little suspect lately.

Check out these NFL Week 12 upset picks.

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Best bet: Giants moneyline (+200)

It’s Tommy DeVito time.

Brian Daboll announced that Daniel Jones has been relegated to the third-string role, essentially protecting the team from paying out the sum of his contract if he were to sustain an injury.

To put it another way: Danny Dimes has played his last snaps as a Giant.

That’s great news for anyone cheering for the team or looking to bet on them considering Jones has been terrible over the last two seasons:

3-13 record as a starter
More interceptions (13) than touchdowns (10)
76.6 passer rating (would rank 36th this season)

No one expects DeVito to be the next Tom Brady, but anything is an upgrade at this point.

Last year, the undrafted signal caller came in relief and won three of six starts while throwing eight touchdowns to three interceptions. He posted a passer rating above 100.0 in each of those wins.

The Giants host a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team dealing with a litany of injuries.

Baker Mayfield has been solid but is without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans and that’s stifled their ability to win close games.

Evans was spotted at practice on Monday but is still listed as questionable, while standout offensive tackle Tristian Wirfs has been designated as week-to-week with a knee injury.

Key stat: Tampa Bay is 1-5 in its last six and has lost four straight.

Week 12 upset predictions

Bears moneyline (+150): The Bears were inches away from snapping a 10-game losing streak against the Green Bay Packers but had what would have been a game-winning kick blocked as time expired.

Chicago has now lost four in a row but I think now is a good time to buy low.

The Vikings are 8-2 but have lost two of five since their Week 6 bye. In that span, they barely beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and have gotten mediocre play from Sam Darnold.

Darnold Week 1-5 (pre-bye): 5-0 record, 103.4 passer rating, 11 TD, 4 INT
Darnold Week 7-11 (post-bye): 3-2 record, 97.1 passer rating, 8 TD, 6 INT

Justin Jefferson is still the best receiver in the game but Chicago’s secondary is elite (second in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback) and should mitigate the damage through the air.

At home, I like the value on the Bears pulling off a divisional upset in what’s essentially a must-win game.

Picks made at 2:02 p.m. ET on 11/19/2024.

NFL Week 12 upset picks: Back Giants, Bears to come through as underdogs

The New York Giants and Chicago Bears headline these NFL Week 12 upset picks.

The pregame narrative: A quarterback change has me backing the Giants to win as home underdogs. Elsewhere, the Bears are catching a Minnesota Vikings team which has looked a little suspect lately.

Check out these NFL Week 12 upset picks.

NFL Week 12 upset picks

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Best bet: Giants moneyline (+197)

It’s Tommy DeVito time.

Brian Daboll announced that Daniel Jones has been relegated to the third-string role, essentially protecting the team from paying out the sum of his contract if he were to sustain an injury.

To put it another way: Danny Dimes has played his last snaps as a Giant.

That’s great news for anyone cheering for the team or looking to bet on them considering Jones has been terrible over the last two seasons:

3-13 record as a starter
More interceptions (13) than touchdowns (10)
76.6 passer rating (would rank 36th this season)

No one expects DeVito to be the next Tom Brady, but anything is an upgrade at this point.

Last year, the undrafted signal caller came in relief and won three of six starts while throwing eight touchdowns to three interceptions. He posted a passer rating above 100.0 in each of those wins.

The Giants host a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team dealing with a litany of injuries.

Baker Mayfield has been solid but is without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans and that’s stifled their ability to win close games.

Evans was spotted at practice on Monday but is still listed as questionable, while standout offensive tackle Tristian Wirfs has been designated as week-to-week with a knee injury.

Key stat: Tampa Bay is 1-5 in its last six and has lost four straight.

Week 12 upset predictions

Bears moneyline (+155): The Bears were inches away from snapping a 10-game losing streak against the Green Bay Packers but had what would have been a game-winning kick blocked as time expired.

Chicago has now lost four in a row but I think now is a good time to buy low.

The Vikings are 8-2 but have lost two of five since their Week 6 bye. In that span, they barely beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and have gotten mediocre play from Sam Darnold.

Darnold Week 1-5 (pre-bye): 5-0 record, 103.4 passer rating, 11 TD, 4 INT
Darnold Week 7-11 (post-bye): 3-2 record, 97.1 passer rating, 8 TD, 6 INT

Justin Jefferson is still the best receiver in the game but Chicago’s secondary is elite (second in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback) and should mitigate the damage through the air.

At home, I like the value on the Bears pulling off a divisional upset in what’s essentially a must-win game.

Picks made at 1:24 p.m. ET on 11/19/2024.