The New York Giants and Chicago Bears headline these NFL Week 12 upset picks.
The pregame narrative: A quarterback change has me backing the Giants to win as home underdogs. Elsewhere, the Bears are catching a Minnesota Vikings team which has looked a little suspect lately.
Check out these NFL Week 12 upset picks.
NFL Week 12 upset picks
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Best bet: Giants moneyline (+197)
It’s Tommy DeVito time.
Brian Daboll announced that Daniel Jones has been relegated to the third-string role, essentially protecting the team from paying out the sum of his contract if he were to sustain an injury.
To put it another way: Danny Dimes has played his last snaps as a Giant.
That’s great news for anyone cheering for the team or looking to bet on them considering Jones has been terrible over the last two seasons:
- 3-13 record as a starter
- More interceptions (13) than touchdowns (10)
- 76.6 passer rating (would rank 36th this season)
No one expects DeVito to be the next Tom Brady, but anything is an upgrade at this point.
Last year, the undrafted signal caller came in relief and won three of six starts while throwing eight touchdowns to three interceptions. He posted a passer rating above 100.0 in each of those wins.
The Giants host a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team dealing with a litany of injuries.
Baker Mayfield has been solid but is without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans and that’s stifled their ability to win close games.
Evans was spotted at practice on Monday but is still listed as questionable, while standout offensive tackle Tristian Wirfs has been designated as week-to-week with a knee injury.
Key stat: Tampa Bay is 1-5 in its last six and has lost four straight.
Week 12 upset predictions
Bears moneyline (+155): The Bears were inches away from snapping a 10-game losing streak against the Green Bay Packers but had what would have been a game-winning kick blocked as time expired.
Chicago has now lost four in a row but I think now is a good time to buy low.
The Vikings are 8-2 but have lost two of five since their Week 6 bye. In that span, they barely beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and have gotten mediocre play from Sam Darnold.
- Darnold Week 1-5 (pre-bye): 5-0 record, 103.4 passer rating, 11 TD, 4 INT
- Darnold Week 7-11 (post-bye): 3-2 record, 97.1 passer rating, 8 TD, 6 INT
Justin Jefferson is still the best receiver in the game but Chicago’s secondary is elite (second in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback) and should mitigate the damage through the air.
At home, I like the value on the Bears pulling off a divisional upset in what’s essentially a must-win game.
Picks made at 1:24 p.m. ET on 11/19/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.