The Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys meet for an intrastate showdown on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Nico Collins is back and I expect him to go berserk against an awful Cowboys defence. And without Dak Prescott under centre, Rico Dowdle should get a heavy workload as Dallas’ RB1.
Check out my Texans vs. Cowboys prop picks for Monday Night Football on Nov. 18.
Texans vs. Cowboys prop picks
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Best Bet: Collins over 72.5 receiving yards (-115)
Simply put, when Collins is on the field he’s one of the best in the game.
As Houston’s star wideout exited Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills with a hamstring injury, he had accrued a then-league-best 567 receiving yards — with at least 75 in every game.
Collins has cleared this line in seven straight regular season games dating back to last season and is averaging 97.2 receiving yards per game with C.J. Stroud under centre.
The Texans were hoping he could return last week against the Detroit Lions but gave him an extra week and now bring him back in a much softer landing spot.
Dallas’ defence is a top-to-bottom mess and ranks 25th in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com. The two biggest concerns for this wager are that teams have run all over the Cowboys and there is risk of a blowout.
But Collins practically clears this line in his sleep and should return to his insanely high target share (especially without the injured Stefon Diggs).
Key stat: Collins ranked fourth in targets per routes run last year (32.0%), according to RotoWire.
Quick pick
Dowdle over 77.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114): Cooper Rush shouldn’t inspire much confidence in anyone but I think Dowdle will still get his looks.
The running back turned 12 carries into 53 yards against the vaunted Philadelphia Eagles defence last week and also hauled in all three of his targets (albeit only for three yards).
If he gets a similar workload tonight, I like his chances of going over this number.
Dowdle has averaged a healthy 4.5 YPC this season behind a dreadful offensive line and has also put up 25-plus receiving yards in three of the last four weeks.
The Texans’ defence is stout but Mike McCarthy can’t justify giving Ezekiel Elliott — who is averaging 3.2 YPC this season — any looks that aren’t on the goal line.
Dowdle has logged over 50.0% of snaps in back-to-back weeks after not clearing that mark before this season. That’s a good sign in my book.
Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 11/18/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.