The Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders begin Week 11 with a huge divisional showdown.
The pregame narrative: Washington has surprised everyone this season but I believe Philadelphia is a cut above and should win at home. Back Jalen Hurts to keep his scoring streak alive and A.J. Brown to have a night through the air.
Check out my Commanders vs. Eagles same-game parlay predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Commanders vs. Eagles predictions
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Parlay: Eagles moneyline + Hurts to score + Brown over 80.5 receiving yards (+380)
Eagles moneyline (-182): The Commanders went from having the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft to owning a 7-3 record through Week 10.
That’s largely thanks to the stellar play of that pick, QB Jayden Daniels.
I don’t want to rag on the Commanders because they’ve been a great story but Philadelphia is hitting its stride and that should terrify every team in the NFC.
Since their Week 5 bye:
- The Eagles are 5-0
- Have a +82 point differential
- Are averaging 29.4 PPG
- Have the No. 1 defensive EPA per play
Hurts and Saquon Barkley form the nucleus of a rushing attack averaging the second-most yards per game.
Washington allows the fifth-most yards per carry (4.8) and rushing yards per game (142.7), and that’s going to be a problem.
Back the Birds at home.
Other parlay picks
Hurts to score (-155): Speaking of Hurts, the quarterback is on a rampage in the red zone, scoring eight touchdowns in his last four games with eight total scores in that span.
Our Jordan Horrbin highlighted Hurts as one of his TD scorer picks last week and I’ll re-iterate two of the stats he highlighted:
- Hurts had 15 red zone carries in Weeks 7-10 compared to 12 red zone passing attempts.
- His 12 carries inside the five-yard line lead all QBs and is tied for fourth among all ball carriers.
Barkley is a TD-scoring machine in his own right but Hurts loves to call his own number and has much better odds (Barkley is -295).
The Commanders give up the 10th-most red zone scoring attempts on the road, so he should have plenty of opportunities to find pay dirt.
Brown over 80.5 receiving yards (-118): I gave out the over on Brown’s receiving total as one of my best bets for TNF and will gladly double dip.
The superstar wide receiver has hauled in 23 receptions for 397 yards in four games versus Washington since joining Philly, topping this line in three of those contests.
He’s also gone over this line in four of five games this season and is coming off a 107-yard outing against the Dallas Cowboys.
The Commanders acquired star cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline but he won’t play on Thursday due to a hamstring injury.
Washington’s secondary has been solid but Lattimore would definitely make a difference.
To hammer home how important Brown is to this offence (and give a little more reassurance to my moneyline pick): The Eagles are 6-0 when he’s in the lineup this year.
Picks made at 1:39 p.m. ET 11/13/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.