Avery Perri

The Sacramento Kings host the Los Angeles Clippers for an intrastate rivalry match tonight.

The pregame narrative: With Kawhi Leonard out, Norman Powell has been forced to carry the scoring load for Los Angeles. I expect him to produce — albeit in a losing effort — and am also backing De’Aaron Fox from deep.

Check out my Clippers vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 8.

Clippers vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Kings moneyline + Fox over 1.5 threes + Powell over 22.5 points (+335)

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Kings moneyline (-278): Sacramento started its season with two losses but has been rolling since.

The Kings are 5-1 in their last six with the only loss coming in overtime in Toronto during Vince Carter’s jersey retirement night.

In that span, Sacramento ranks fifth in net rating (+9.0) and defensive rating (108.8). Offence wasn’t a problem for Mike Brown’s group last year, so it’s encouraging to see the team tighten up on the other end of the floor where it struggled.

The Clippers have been a great defensive team so far but have struggled to score without Leonard, which has led to a middling 4-4 record.

L.A. has won back-to-back games, but those were against the bottom-feeding San Antonio Spurs and the Philadelphia 76ers without Joel Embiid.

The Kings are 24-14 SU as a home favourite since the start of last season and 2-0 this year. I expect the good times to continue in California’s capital.

SGP legs

Fox over 1.5 threes (-265): Fox is having a dreadful start to the season shooting the deep ball. But he’s still firing with volume and that’s good enough for me.

Sacramento’s point guard is attempting 6.9 threes a night, which is more than any season except last year when he attempted 7.8.

He’s only connecting at a 29.1% clip but has still cleared this mark in five of eight games.

The Clippers are a nice matchup for Fox to get back on the horse. L.A. is allowing opponents to shoot 37.2% from deep, which is the ninth-highest rate in the NBA.

Powell over 22.5 points (+108): Clippers fans would love to have Leonard back but I’m sure Powell doesn’t hate his increased role.

The former Toronto Raptor has been on fire to start the season, scoring a team-high 25.0 PPG on impressive 53.0/48.5/86.2 shooting splits.

He’s gone over this mark in five straight games and ranks 47th in the NBA in usage rate, tied with LeBron James.

Much like the Clippers, the Kings struggle to defend the arc, ranking a pedestrian 17th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Powell takes the most threes per game (8.5) of anyone on L.A. and I expect him to be active this evening.

Picks made at 10:55 a.m. ET on 11/08/2024.

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The San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.

The pregame narrative: San Antonio lost yesterday and I’m looking to fade it on a back-to-back. Prop bets on Chris Paul and Anfernee Simons round out this +275 SGP.

Check out my Trail Blazers vs. Spurs same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 7.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs predictions

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Parlay: Trail Blazers +8.5 + Simons over 2.5 threes + Paul over 8.5 assists (+275)

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Trail Blazers +8.5 (-225): Both teams sit at 3-5 heading into tonight’s game but I feel much better about Portland covering this number.

San Antonio played last night and got smoked by the Houston Rockets on home court. Dating back to the start of last season, the Spurs are 3-11 when playing on no rest, which is the second-worst record in the NBA according to Team Rankings.

Their average point differential in those games is -11.4 and one of those losses was to the Trail Blazers in Portland.

San Antonio is also missing two-fifths of last year’s starting rotation with Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan sidelined.

New acquisition Harrison Barnes is averaging just 9.5 points per game and I don’t expect him to make much of an impact.

SGP legs

Simons over 2.5 threes (-220): I backed Simons to clear his 21.5-point total in today’s NBA prop bets and will double-dip by adding a teased-down 3-point line to this SGP.

The Spurs are great at defending the interior because that’s where Victor Wembanyama lives, but are awful are shutting down the perimeter.

San Antonio allows opponents to shoot at the sixth-highest rate from beyond the arc (37.8%) in the NBA.

Simons is shooting just 31.0% from deep this year but he’s still cleared this mark in four of eight games. Last year, he shot 38.5% from three and drained seven triples in his only game against the Spurs.

Paul over 20.5 points and assists (-114): Paul is into his 20th season but I’m not worried about the veteran’s usage on a back-to-back.

He only played 20 minutes in yesterday’s blowout loss and had cleared this mark in four straight games before that. And in San Antonio’s other back-to-back this season, he had 19 points and 10 assists against the Utah Jazz.

The Trail Blazers, much like the Spurs, excel in defending the paint but not the 3-point line.

Paul’s floor as a passer is high so I think he’ll rack up helpers, but I also like his chances of providing some offence with Sochan and Vassell out.

NBA picks made at 10:47 a.m. on 11/07/24.

I’ve got a pair of prop bets from Thursday’s slim three-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Anfernee Simons is the top dog in Portland and I expect him to torch the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Elsewhere, I’m fading Anthony Edwards from deep a tough matchup.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Thursday, Nov. 7.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Simons over 21.5 points (-113)

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Simons is a streaky player but he’s Portland’s No. 1 option and gets a nice matchup.

The seventh-year shooting guard leads the team in points (19.5) and field goal attempts (16.9) per game.

He’s coming off a 24-point outing against the New Orleans Pelicans and had 20 against the Phoenix Suns before that. Overall, Simons has cleared this total in four of eight games.

Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but keep in mind he’s shooting 38.5% from the field and 31.0% from deep. That’s well below his career averages and marks from last year, so some positive regression should be on the horizon.

The Spurs are a great slump-buster, especially for players who like to let it fly from deep.

San Antonio is 10th in defensive rating but that’s because Victor Wembanyama makes anything near the rim a no-fly zone. On the perimeter, the Spurs are allowing opponents to cash in at the sixth-highest rate (37.8%) in the NBA.

Simons attempts 8.3 threes per game and shot 38.5% from beyond the arc last year.

San Antonio is also on a back-to-back, so we’ll see how that affects its defensive rotation and Wembanyama’s minutes.

Key stat: Simons averaged 23.6 PPG last season and scored 40 points in his only game against the Spurs.

Quick picks

Edwards under 3.5 threes (-134): Fading Edwards is risky, but this is the spot to do it.

The 3-5 Chicago Bulls might need to re-think their defensive scheme but right now they’re locking up the perimeter and getting demolished in the paint.

Chicago is ceding the most paint points per game (57.3) with the fourth-lowest opponent 3-point shooting percentage (31.3%). Teams aren’t voluntarily going inside as the Bulls’ opponents are taking 39.5 threes a game, the fifth-most in basketball.

There is a risk that Edwards might clear this strictly based on volume but I trust Chicago’s perimeter defence to keep him at bay.

There is also a good chance of a Minnesota Timberwolves blowout, which would mean fewer minutes for Edwards.

Picks made at 8:13 a.m. ET on 11/07/2024.