The San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.
The pregame narrative: San Antonio lost yesterday and I’m looking to fade it on a back-to-back. Prop bets on Chris Paul and Anfernee Simons round out this +275 SGP.
Check out my Trail Blazers vs. Spurs same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 7.
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs predictions
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Parlay: Trail Blazers +8.5 + Simons over 2.5 threes + Paul over 8.5 assists (+275)
Trail Blazers +8.5 (-225): Both teams sit at 3-5 heading into tonight’s game but I feel much better about Portland covering this number.
San Antonio played last night and got smoked by the Houston Rockets on home court. Dating back to the start of last season, the Spurs are 3-11 when playing on no rest, which is the second-worst record in the NBA according to Team Rankings.
Their average point differential in those games is -11.4 and one of those losses was to the Trail Blazers in Portland.
San Antonio is also missing two-fifths of last year’s starting rotation with Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan sidelined.
New acquisition Harrison Barnes is averaging just 9.5 points per game and I don’t expect him to make much of an impact.
SGP legs
Simons over 2.5 threes (-220): I backed Simons to clear his 21.5-point total in today’s NBA prop bets and will double-dip by adding a teased-down 3-point line to this SGP.
The Spurs are great at defending the interior because that’s where Victor Wembanyama lives, but are awful are shutting down the perimeter.
San Antonio allows opponents to shoot at the sixth-highest rate from beyond the arc (37.8%) in the NBA.
Simons is shooting just 31.0% from deep this year but he’s still cleared this mark in four of eight games. Last year, he shot 38.5% from three and drained seven triples in his only game against the Spurs.
Paul over 20.5 points and assists (-114): Paul is into his 20th season but I’m not worried about the veteran’s usage on a back-to-back.
He only played 20 minutes in yesterday’s blowout loss and had cleared this mark in four straight games before that. And in San Antonio’s other back-to-back this season, he had 19 points and 10 assists against the Utah Jazz.
The Trail Blazers, much like the Spurs, excel in defending the paint but not the 3-point line.
Paul’s floor as a passer is high so I think he’ll rack up helpers, but I also like his chances of providing some offence with Sochan and Vassell out.
NBA picks made at 10:47 a.m. on 11/07/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.