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Thunder vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions Nov. 6: Back Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic at +295

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets meet for a Western Conference heavyweight showdown.

The pregame narrative: OKC is the West’s last unbeaten team and I can’t see that changing against a shorthanded Denver team tonight. Back the Thunder to cover an alternate spread alongside prop bets on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic.

Check out my Thunder vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 6.

Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions

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Parlay: Thunder -3.5 + Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists + Jokic over 11.5 rebounds (+295)

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Thunder -3.5 (-190): OKC is dismantling teams right now.

The Thunder are a perfect 7-0 with a league-best +17.1 net rating. They’ve won each game by at least 12 points and began the season with a 15-point drumming of the Nuggets in Denver two weeks ago.

Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon were on the court then and are both out tonight.

Murray and Gordon were Denver’s second and fourth-ranked scorers from a year ago and that leaves the likes of Russell Westbrook and Christian Braun to pick up the slack.

Jokic is the best player on the planet but even he can’t do it all against a Thunder squad firing on all cylinders.

I expect OKC to comfortably win tonight.

SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists (-157): It’s very early but Gilgeous-Alexander is favoured to win the MVP after a red-hot start.

The Canadian superstar is averaging 25.7 points to pair with 6.9 assists, clearing this line in five of seven games.

He had eight helpers against Denver when these teams met a few weeks back and has logged nine assists in back-to-back games.

The Nuggets aren’t what they used to be defensively and sit a pedestrian 17th in defensive rating while allowing the second-most assists per game to point guards (11.3), according to Fantasy Pros.

As long as this isn’t a complete blowout, SGA should get enough run to clear this total.

Jokic over 11.5 rebounds (-225): The only hole to poke in the OKC’s game right now is its rebounding.

The Thunder had the third-worst rebounding rate last year (48.4%) and own the fourth-worst so far (47.7%). They will have help on the glass when Isaiah Hartenstein returns from injury but until then remain a prime fade candidate.

Jokic had 12 rebounds against OKC in October and has cleared this line in back-to-back games with 30 total boards in that span.

He’s played close to or over 40 minutes in each of Denver’s competitive games and has a notable size advantage against 208-pound Chet Holmgren.

NBA picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 11/06/24.

Raptors vs. Kings props Nov. 6: Back DeRozan, Dick to have big nights

The Toronto Raptors and Sacramento Kings meet for the second time in a week.

The pregame narrative: Toronto beat Sacramento as a 9.5-point underdog during Vince Carter’s jersey retirement on Saturday and the Raps are getting even more points tonight. On the prop market, I expect DeMar DeRozan and Gradey Dick to show out.

Check out my Raptors vs. Kings props for Nov. 6.

Raptors vs. Kings props

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Best Bet: DeRozan over 24.5 points (-112)

The revenge game narrative gets overused but there’s legitimate beef here.

Toward the end of Saturday’s festivities, during which DeRozan dropped 33 points and four assists, Drake felt the need to say: “If you ever put (up) a DeRozan banner, I’ll pull that thing down myself.”

DeRozan responded postgame with: “He’s gonna have a long way to climb to get there.”

Talking smack is one thing but the former Raptor has a golden opportunity to back it up on the court tonight. DeRozan has scored 20-plus points in all seven games as a King and is averaging 25.4 PPG on 17.0 field-goal attempts.

His floor as a scorer is high and the Raptors chronically struggle to defend small forwards.

Toronto allowed the most points per game to that position last year and is giving up the 10th-most points this season, according to Fantasy Pros.

DeRozan took a season-high 27 shots on Saturday and I expect him to be the primary attacker this evening.

Key stat: DeRozan has cleared this line in four of seven games (three straight) and came within a basket of it two additional times.

Quick pick

Dick over 2.5 threes (-175): I’m not a fan of paying this much juice but Dick has been torching teams from beyond the arc and gets a nice matchup.

The Kings are allowing opponents to shoot a healthy 37.2% from beyond the arc and Dick hit 3-of-8 attempts against them a few days ago.

The sophomore shooting guard has now cleared this number in three straight games and four of his last six after a rocky start to the season. Dick is leading the Raptors in 3-point attempts per game (7.4) and is playing north of 30 minutes per night.

From a pure volume standpoint, this seems like a smash play.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 11/06/2024.

Raptors vs. Kings props Nov. 6: Back DeRozan, Dick to have big nights

The Toronto Raptors and Sacramento Kings meet for the second time in a week.

The pregame narrative: Toronto beat Sacramento as a 9.5-point underdog during Vince Carter’s jersey retirement on Saturday and is getting the same amount of points tonight. On the prop market, I expect DeMar DeRozan and Gradey Dick to show out.

Check out my Raptors vs. Kings props for Nov. 6.

Raptors vs. Kings props

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Best Bet: DeRozan over 28.5 points and assists (-114)

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The revenge game narrative gets overused but there’s legitimate beef here.

Toward the end of Saturday’s festivities, during which DeRozan dropped 33 points and four assists, Drake felt the need to say: “If you ever put (up) a DeRozan banner, I’ll pull that thing down myself.”

DeRozan responded postgame with: “He’s gonna have a long way to climb to get there.”

Talking smack is one thing but the former Raptor has a golden opportunity to back it up on the court tonight. DeRozan has scored 20-plus points in all seven games as a King and is averaging 25.4 PPG on 17.0 field-goal attempts.

His floor as a scorer is high and the Raptors chronically struggle to defend small forwards.

Toronto allowed the most points per game to that position last year and is giving up the 10th-most points this season, according to Fantasy Pros. It also allowed the third-most assists per game to SFs in 2023.

DeRozan took a season-high 27 shots on Saturday and I expect him to be the primary attacker this evening. And if Toronto wants to send more bodies his way that should open up lanes for easy assists.

Key stat: DeRozan has cleared this line in four of seven games (three straight) with no fewer than 26 points and assists.

Quick pick

Dick over 2.5 threes (-139): This line has been moving around all morning and was sitting at -145 at one point. I’m not a fan of paying this much juice but Dick has been torching teams from beyond the arc and gets a nice matchup.

The Kings are allowing opponents to shoot a healthy 37.2% from beyond the arc and Dick hit 3-of-8 attempts against them a few days ago.

The sophomore shooting guard has now cleared this number in three straight games and four of his last six after a rocky start to the season. Dick is leading the Raptors in 3-point attempts per game (7.4) and is playing north of 30 minutes per night.

From a pure volume standpoint, this seems like a smash play.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 11/06/2024.

The 3 biggest NFL trade deadline betting moves

A trio of teams made significant upgrades at Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline.

The latest: Some of the biggest deals — such as Davante Adams to New York or DeAndre Hopkins to Kansas City — occurred weeks ago. But the deadline didn’t disappoint as the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, and Pittsburgh Steelers all made significant splashes with a Super Bowl in mind.

Check out the three biggest NFL trades from deadline day bettors need to know. For all of Tuesday’s moves, plus the latest injury news from the NFL, bookmark our NFL Player News and Injury Report, powered by RotoWire.

NFL trade deadline moves

1. Lions acquire Za’Darius Smith from Cleveland Browns

Return: 2025 fifth and 2026 sixth-round pick (Lions also received a 2026 seventh-round pick)

My Take: The Lions needed help off the edge and they got it. Detroit currently holds the shortest odds to win the NFC thanks to the No. 1 scoring offence in football. And now it has filled one of its greatest needs on a stacked roster.

Odds to win division: -278
Odds to win Super Bowl: +500

2. Commanders acquire Marshon Lattimore from New Orleans Saints

Return: 2025 third, fourth and sixth-round picks (Commanders also received a 2025 fifth-round pick)

My Take: The Commanders have something special brewing with standout rookie QB Jayden Daniels at the helm and the team’s brass is wasting no time bolstering the roster.

Washington’s secondary already allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game but did rank 22nd in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback. So there was room for improvement in acquiring Lattimore.

3. Steelers acquire Mike Williams from New York Jets

Return: 2025 fifth-round pick

My Take: Russell Wilson has the Steelers cooking and Williams should be a welcome addition to a receiving room consisting of George Pickens and not much else.

Pittsburgh has received infrequent contributions from guys like Calvin Austin III and Van Jefferson. But the hope is Williams can become the definitive No. 2 option.

Odds to win division: +240
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3,000

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More NFL trade deadline moves of note…

The Dallas Cowboys acquired second-year WR Jonathan Mingo from the Carolina Panthers for a 2025 fourth-round pick. My Take: It’s hard to see how this will help Dallas much with Dak Prescott placed on the IR due to a hamstring injury.
Pittsburgh also acquired starting defensive end Preston Smith from the Green Bay Packers for a seventh-round pick. My Take: He’ll slot in behind T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.
The Cincinnati Bengals acquired Khalil Herbert from the Chicago Bears in exchange for a 2025 seventh-round pick. My Take: That move makes sense after RB Zack Moss was placed on the IR Tuesday.

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NBA parlay picks Nov. 6: Back the Celtics, Cavaliers and Suns +280

I’m targeting two of the Eastern Conference’s best teams in this +280 NBA parlay.

The pregame narrative: The Cleveland Cavaliers are undefeated and the Boston Celtics are borderline unstoppable at home. I like both teams to win and am also taking the Phoenix Suns to cover as home favourites against the Miami Heat.

Check out the full NBA parlay picks for Nov. 6.

NBA parlay picks

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Parlay: Cavaliers moneyline + Celtics -4.5 + Suns -5.5 (+280)

Cavaliers moneyline (-300): Cleveland is the East’s last unbeaten team and has been demolishing opponents en route to an 8-0 record.

The Cavs have a +12.7 net rating (fourth-best in the NBA) and the league’s best true shooting percentage (63.0%).

Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland make up a dynamite backcourt averaging a combined 43.6 PPG, and they should have a field day against the New Orleans Pelicans’ depleted roster.

Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III and CJ McCollum are all out, which means Jose Alvarado and Jordan Hawkins are the team’s 1-2 combo. Zion Williamson also missed Monday’s game with a hamstring injury and is considered day-to-day.

Even on the road, I expect the Cavs to rout the Pelicans.

Other picks

Celtics -4.5 (-200): Boston is coming off a season where it went 37-5 during the regular season on its famed parquet floors, posting the best regular season home net rating (+15.5) since the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors.

The Celtics were just as dominant in the playoffs (8-2) and are off to a 2-0 start at TD Garden so far.

Sure, the 6-1 Warriors are on a roll right now and have Steph Curry back in the lineup, but they have barely had to play any tough teams so far. Golden State has beaten New Orleans (twice), Washington, Utah, Portland and Houston — and only the Rockets are above .500.

I expect reality to set in for an average team against a true juggernaut.

Suns -5.5 (-110): Phoenix has rattled off five straight wins since losing on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers on Oct. 25.

The Suns are a perfect 4-0 at home with the eighth-best home net rating (+6.3) in the NBA. They haven’t been a great ATS team (2-5), but neither have the Heat (2-4).

Miami is 2-0 on the road but those wins came against the Hornets and Wizards.

I think this will be a matchup nightmare for Miami, who is allowing opponents to shoot 44.3% from the midrange, the eighth-worst mark in the NBA according to Cleaning the Glass.

Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are prolific scorers from that area of the court and should have big nights.

Picks made at 1:43 p.m. on 11/05/2024.

NBA parlay picks Nov. 6: Back the Celtics, Cavaliers and Suns +296

I’m targeting two of the Eastern Conference’s best teams in this +296 NBA parlay.

The pregame narrative: The Cleveland Cavaliers are undefeated and the Boston Celtics are borderline unstoppable at home. I like both teams to win and am also taking the Phoenix Suns to cover as home favourites against the Miami Heat.

Check out the full NBA parlay picks for Nov. 6.

NBA parlay picks

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Parlay: Cavaliers moneyline + Celtics -4.5 + Suns -5.5 (+296)

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Cavaliers moneyline (-295): Cleveland is the East’s last unbeaten team and has been demolishing opponents en route to an 8-0 record.

The Cavs have a +12.7 net rating (fourth-best in the NBA) and the league’s best true shooting percentage (63.0%).

Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland make up a dynamite backcourt averaging a combined 43.6 PPG, and they should have a field day against the New Orleans Pelicans’ depleted roster.

Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III and CJ McCollum are all out, which means Jose Alvarado and Jordan Hawkins are the team’s 1-2 combo. Zion Williamson also missed Monday’s game with a hamstring injury and is considered day-to-day.

Even on the road, I expect the Cavs to rout the Pelicans.

Other picks

Celtics -4.5 (-186): Boston is coming off a season where it went 37-5 during the regular season on its famed parquet floors, posting the best regular season home net rating (+15.5) since the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors.

The Celtics were just as dominant in the playoffs (8-2) and are off to a 2-0 start at TD Garden so far.

Sure, the 6-1 Warriors are on a roll right now and have Steph Curry back in the lineup, but they have barely had to play any tough teams so far. Golden State has beaten New Orleans (twice), Washington, Utah, Portland and Houston — and only the Rockets are above .500.

I expect reality to set in for an average team against a true juggernaut.

Suns -5.5 (-109): Phoenix has rattled off five straight wins since losing on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers on Oct. 25.

The Suns are a perfect 4-0 at home with the eighth-best home net rating (+6.3) in the NBA. They haven’t been a great ATS team (2-5), but neither have the Heat (2-4).

Miami is 2-0 on the road but those wins came against the Hornets and Wizards.

I think this will be a matchup nightmare for Miami, who is allowing opponents to shoot 44.3% from the midrange, the eighth-worst mark in the NBA according to Cleaning the Glass.

Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are prolific scorers from that area of the court and should have big nights.

Picks made at 1:43 p.m. on 11/05/2024.

Best NHL prop picks Nov 5: Back Kirill Kaprizov, Jake DeBrusk to produce

I’ve got two prop bets from tonight’s sizeable NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Kirill Kaprizov is on a heater and I like him and the Minnesota Wild to torch a backup goaltender tonight. After that, Jake DeBrusk is a good bet to record a point against the Anaheim Ducks.

Find my NHL prop picks for Nov. 5 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: DeBrusk to record a point (+100)

DeBrusk got the monkey off his back on Saturday when he scored his first goal as a Vancouver Canuck in a 3-2 win over the San Jose Sharks.

The former Boston Bruin had just four points (all assists) in nine games before then despite playing on Vancouver’s top line and second power play.

But I think the levy is about to break for a talented player riding shotgun with J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser — especially since he gets to play the Ducks tonight.

Anaheim has allowed the eighth-fewest goals per game (2.82) thanks to the fantastic play of Lukas Dostal. The 24-year-old Czechian netminder has a 2.22 GAA and .937 SV% through nine starts and is first in goals saved above expected (13.0), per Money Puck.

But the Ducks are playing with fire, allowing a league-high 73.8 chances and 34.7 shots per 60, per Natural Stat Trick.

I am happy to bet on some regression from Dostal at some point, especially considering he has started three straight games for Anaheim (last played on Sunday).

Key stat: DeBrusk has a point in five of 10 games.

Quick picks

Kaprizov to score 2+ points (+105): Kirill “The Thrill” Kaprizov is living up to his name so far.

The Russian winger has a league-high 21 points and has led his Wild to a stellar 8-1-2 record through 11 games.

Kaprizov was held pointless in a 2-1 overtime victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday but had two-plus points in six straight games before that.

The Los Angeles Kings are on a back-to-back and that means David Rittich is in the net tonight. The veteran netminder has had a miserable start to the season, posting a 3.09 GAA and .870 SV% through six starts.

He’s allowed 11 goals in his last three games and five came across two starts against the awful San Jose Sharks.

Picks made at 11:07 on 11/05/2024.

Best NHL prop picks Nov 5: Back Kirill Kaprizov, Jake DeBrusk to produce

I’ve got two prop bets from tonight’s sizeable NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Kirill Kaprizov is on a heater and I like him and the Minnesota Wild to torch a backup goaltender tonight. After that, Jake DeBrusk is a good bet to record a point against the Anaheim Ducks.

Find my NHL prop picks for Nov. 5 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: DeBrusk to record a point (-103)

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DeBrusk got the monkey off his back on Saturday when he scored his first goal as a Vancouver Canuck in a 3-2 win over the San Jose Sharks.

The former Boston Bruin had just four points (all assists) in nine games before then despite playing on Vancouver’s top line and second power play.

But I think the levy is about to break for a talented player riding shotgun with J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser — especially since he gets to play the Ducks tonight.

Anaheim has allowed the eighth-fewest goals per game (2.82) thanks to the fantastic play of Lukas Dostal. The 24-year-old Czechian netminder has a 2.22 GAA and .937 SV% through nine starts and is first in goals saved above expected (13.0), per Money Puck.

But the Ducks are playing with fire, allowing a league-high 73.8 chances and 34.7 shots per 60, per Natural Stat Trick.

I am happy to bet on some regression from Dostal at some point, especially considering he has started three straight games for Anaheim (last played on Sunday).

Key stat: DeBrusk has a point in five of 10 games.

Quick picks

Kaprizov to score 2+ points (+125): Kirill “The Thrill” Kaprizov is living up to his name so far.

The Russian winger has a league-high 21 points and has led his Wild to a stellar 8-1-2 record through 11 games.

Kaprizov was held pointless in a 2-1 overtime victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday but had two-plus points in six straight games before that.

The Los Angeles Kings are on a back-to-back and that means David Rittich is in the net tonight. The veteran netminder has had a miserable start to the season, posting a 3.09 GAA and .870 SV% through six starts.

He’s allowed 11 goals in his last three games and five came across two starts against the awful San Jose Sharks.

Picks made at 11:07 on 11/05/2024.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Bruins Nov. 5: Back Boston, Pastrnak against Matthews-less Toronto

The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome their biggest rival, the Boston Bruins, into town tonight.

The pregame narrative: Toronto lost in overtime to Boston in Game 7 last season and again a few weeks ago. To make matters worse for the Leafs, Auston Matthews is unavailable tonight. I expect the Bruins to continue dominating their rival and am also backing Mitch Marner and David Pastrnak to produce.

Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. Bruins for the game on Nov. 5.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Bruins

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Best Bet: Bruins moneyline (+132)

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Toronto scraped and clawed its way to a series-deciding Game 7 last year … and lost.

But things weren’t nearly as close in the regular season. Boston has won eight straight games against its rival outside of the playoffs, with three of those coming by three-plus goals.

The Leafs can’t seem to figure out Jeremy Swayman or the Bruins’ defence and are averaging just 1.7 goals per game against them in the last 10 meetings (playoffs included).

Without Matthews, who is still the world’s best goalscorer despite his slow start, I can’t imagine Toronto having an offensive outburst.

Then there’s the question of goaltending, with neither Joseph Woll nor Anthony Stolarz being confirmed at the time of writing.

Woll has looked shaky so far with an .892 SV% across three starts and Stolarz has cooled off after his red-hot start, allowing 10 goals in his last three outings.

Key stat: Toronto has lost five of its last seven games.

Quick picks

Marner and Pastrnak 1+ point each (+107): Neither team is playing immaculate hockey right now but I love the value of pairing these superstar wingers to find the stat sheet.

Let’s start with Marner, who has registered a point in five straight games. He started that streak with a three-assist game against the Bruins on Oct. 26 and has 14 points in 13 games on the year.

The 27-year-old won’t get to play with Matthews tonight but will still get top-line minutes and significant power play time. The PP isn’t performing at an elite pace but that’s bound to change at some point.

Marner has played at a 1.27 points per game pace over the last three seasons, notching points in nine of his last 11 regular season games against Boston.

As for Pastrnak, the man is a straight-up Leaf killer.

He scored the overtime winner in Game 7 and in their first meeting this season and has 62 points (30 goals) in 50 career games against Toronto.

NHL picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET on 11/05/24.

Colts vs. Vikings Week 9 SNF prop picks: Back Joe Flacco, Jonathan Taylor

Joe Flacco and Jonathan Taylor headline my Sunday Night football prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The Indianapolis Colts made a significant quarterback change this week when they benched Anthony Richardson for Flacco. I expect the veteran QB to have a busy night and am targeting Taylor in the receiving game.

Check out my Colts vs. Vikings prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Nov. 3.

Colts vs. Vikings prop picks

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Best Bet: Flacco over 22.5 completions (-136)

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Flacco may be 39 years old but he’s still a gunslinger.

The veteran signal-caller has done nothing but perform when called upon the last few seasons, winning a handful of games with the Cleveland Browns last year before going 2-1 with the Colts this season (one relief appearance).

In his two starts with Indianapolis, he’s averaging 27.5 completions a game on 41 attempts.

The Vikings aren’t a team to run on, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per contest with the lowest defensive EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com.

They’re not really a team to pass on, either, but I think the Colts will need to find ways to get the ball out, and quickly, in prime time.

Brian Flores has been dialling it up for Minnesota, with the highest blitz rate (41.4%) and pressure rate (30.2%). That means there won’t be time for long-winded plays to develop and, I think, will force Flacco into completing plenty of checkdowns.

Also, if the Vikings (5-point favourites) get up early, it could force the Colts to abandon the run entirely.

Key stat: Since the start of last season, Flacco is 6-2 against this line when starting a game.

Quick pick

Taylor over 15.5 receiving yards (-110): Taylor only has one game under his belt with Flacco this season but the results were promising.

He caught a season-high three passes for 20 yards in addition to adding 88 yards and a score on the ground. Flacco will need to get the ball out quickly tonight so I can see a similar level of volume for Indy’s bell-cow back.

Even without Flacco, this is a line Taylor has cleared or flirted with in most games. He’s logged 20-plus receiving yards in three of five starts and had 12 in another.

The Vikings are allowing 36.4 receiving yards to running backs per game, according to Pro Football Reference.

Picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET 11/03/2024.