Avery Perri

The Paolo Banchero-less Orlando Magic travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks tonight.

The pregame narrative: With Orlando missing its best player I expect Dallas to pick up a win on home court. Prop bets on Luka Doncic and Franz Wagner round out this +300 SGP.

Check out my Magic vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 3.

Magic vs. Mavericks predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Parlay: Mavericks moneyline + Doncic over 2.5 threes + Wagner over 19.5 points (+300)

Embed: #99176

Mavericks moneyline (-250): Banchero was lighting the league on fire before suffering an oblique tear on Wednesday, averaging 29.0 points 8.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists on 49.5% shooting.

His 31.1% usage rate was the 15-highest in the NBA and that type of production is impossible to replace.

I think Wagner can chip in (more on that later) but will fade Orlando against the reigning Western Conference champs in Dallas.

The Mavericks are 3-2 and have a relatively clean bill of health with their Big Three of Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson all available.

Orlando has gotten torched from beyond the arc this year and that trio should make it pay.

SGP legs

Doncic over 2.5 threes (-155): How bad has the Magic been at defending the deep ball? Opponents are connecting at a 38.3% clip so far which is the fifth-highest rate in the NBA.

That’s a massive shock considering Orlando held opponents to the sixth-lowest rate last year.

Doncic doesn’t have as big a piece of the pie as he did last year but he’s still attempting a healthy 9.6 three-pointers a night, clearing this mark in three of five games.

Last year, he went over 2.5 threes in 54 of 70 games (77.1%).

If Luka stays anywhere near his current volume I love his chances of having a night.

Wagner over 19.5 points (-152): Wagner is going to have to elevate his game with Banchero sidelined and this is a good matchup for him to succeed.

The German forward is averaging 17.7 points on 49.4% shooting, clearing this total in three of six games. He went under this line in the first game without Banchero but put up 19 shots which is the type of volume I like to see.

The Mavericks have allowed the seventh-most PPG to opposing power forwards (25.97), according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. on 11/03/24.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

I have one NBA prop bet from each of Sunday’s games.

The pregame narrative: First up, Cade Cunningham is in a good spot to rack up assists against the Brooklyn Nets. After that, I like Franz Wagner and Zaccharie Risacher to fill the basket.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 3.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Wagner over 19.5 points (-139)

Embed: #99157

Paolo Banchero was off to a red-hot start before tearing his oblique against the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.

It’s a devastating loss for the Orlando Magic but is also an opportunity for other players on the roster to step up.

Wagner is the team’s No. 3 scorer (behind Banchero and Jalen Suggs) and will need to be at his best for the Magic to keep pace with the Eastern Conference’s top teams.

He is putting up 17.7 points on 49.4% shooting, clearing this total in three of six games.

In Orlando’s first game without Banchero, Wagner dropped 17 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers. It wasn’t an eye-popping performance by any means but Wagner took 19 shots, and that type of volume is what I love to see.

Moreover, Cleveland is one of the league’s best defensive units, ranking fourth in defensive rating. Dallas is a respectable 13th but has gotten torched by power forwards so far.

Key stat: The Mavericks have allowed the seventh-most PPG to opposing power forwards (25.97), according to Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Cunningham over 7.5 assists (+116): You have to be a real basketball sicko to earnestly tune into today’s Detroit Pistons vs. Brooklyn Nets game.

With that said, Cunningham has a nice chance to smash this total.

Detroit’s point guard is averaging 7.2 assists per night and has put up at least six assists in every game. He has an extremely high floor as a passer and now gets one of the league’s worst teams.

Brooklyn is off to a 3-3 start, ranking 19th in defensive rating. But the squad finished 18 games below .500 last year so I won’t let this decent start fool me.

Risacher over 1.5 threes (-106): Atlanta finished 36-46 last season and had a 3.0% chance of nabbing the first overall pick in the draft. It did and the reward was Risacher.

The Frenchman has had some tough games so far but I like his chances of performing tonight.

New Orleans hasn’t been able to defend the 3-point line at all so far, allowing opponents to connect at a 38.2% clip from deep (sixth-highest in NBA).

Risacher has only cleared this line once so far but he’s attempting 4.5 a night, so I’ll bank on an improvement.

Picks made at 9:45 a.m. on 11/02/2024.

The Atlanta Hawks have a date with the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta has dropped four straight but I expect it to cover a hefty alternate spread tonight. Additionally, bet on 2024 No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher from deep and fade a teased-up Zion Williamson point total.

Check out my Hawks vs. Pelicans same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 3.

Hawks vs. Pelicans predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Parlay: Hawks +10.5 + Risacher over 1.5 threes + Williamson under 30.5 points (+290)

Embed: #99146

Hawks +10.5 (-278): Tonight seems like a prime spot to back the struggling Hawks.

The Pelicans will be without three guards (C.J. McCollum, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray) due to injury which severely hampers their perimeter offence.

Atlanta has been a disaster defending the deep ball, allowing opponents to shoot a league-high 41.0% from beyond the arc. Zion barely shoots from deep and Ingram only averages 6.2 attempts per game, preferring to attack from the midrange or at the rim.

The Hawks have been great at defending that area of the court, allowing the sixth-fewest paint points per game.

Atlanta is 4-2 against this line despite its 2-4 record while New Orleans is 1-5 against a -10.5 spread.

SGP legs

Risacher over 1.5 threes (-106): Atlanta fell backwards into the No. 1 pick and Risacher last year by winning the draft lottery with just a 3.0% chance.

The rookie has had an up-and-down start to his career, as expected, but tonight should be a good matchup for the Frenchman.

Like Atlanta, New Orleans’ 3-point line has been open season as opponents are connecting at a 38.2% clip (sixth-highest in NBA).

Risacher has only cleared this line in one of six games and was 1-for-6 from deep his last time out but he’s attempting 4.5 a night and should keep firing.

Williamson under 30.5 points (-177): We already talked about Atlanta’s ability to defend the paint, which has me looking to fade Zion on an alternate total.

The big man is coming off a 34-point outing against the Indiana Pacers but they’re one of the league’s worst defensive units. Before that, he was 1-3 against this line, failing to crack 20 points in each of those games.

Williamson is shooting just 44.2% from the field so far and Atlanta would be wise to focus its energy on stopping him tonight.

Picks made at 8:49 a.m. on 11/03/24.

The Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks meet tonight for an intrastate showdown.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is ice cold from 3-point land but I expect him to break out of that funk tonight. Also, expect Houston to cover an alternate spread behind a strong game from Jabari Smith Jr.

Check out my Rockets vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 31.

Rockets vs. Mavericks predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Parlay: Rockets +10.5 + Doncic over 2.5 threes + Smith Jr. over 18.5 points and rebounds (+295)

Rockets +10.5 (-205): Houston went 1-3 against Dallas last year but covered this line in three of those games, including both at American Airlines Center.

Embed: #98894

The Rockets are also 4-0 against this line this season while the Mavericks are 1-3 (barely covering it in a 120-109 win over the San Antonio Spurs on opening night).

Perhaps a blowout game is on the horizon for Dallas, but I can’t see it happening against a Houston team that plays stingy defence.

The Rockets ranked 10th in defensive rating last year and are eighth through four games played in 2024-25.

SGP legs

Doncic over 2.5 threes (-180): Doncic was 0-for-7 from deep on Tuesday before hitting a massive step-back dagger from the logo to down the Minnesota Timberwolves

Embed: #98895

He went 1-of-9 the game before that, so Doncic definitely isn’t “feeling it” from deep. That said, he’s still attempting 10.3 threes a night and has proven to be a capable scorer from long range.

Doncic netted four triples in Dallas’ opener and five the game after that. Last year, he cleared this mark in 54 of 70 games (77.1%).

The addition of Klay Thompson muddies the water a little, but I’ll still back the reigning scoring champion at this number.

Smith Jr. over 18.5 points and rebounds (-113): Smith hasn’t been the first, second, or third scoring option for the Rockets this year but he’s still averaging 11.5 points and 9.0 rebounds while playing north of 30 minutes a night.

Embed: #98896

The third-year power forward dropped 17 points and eight rebounds his last time out and I like him to keep the ball rolling tonight.

Last year, he torched the Mavericks repeatedly, averaging 19.3 points and 8.3 rebounds, going 4-0 against this line.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. on 10/31/24.

The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers square off in the NBA’s Halloween nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix is rolling and gets Los Angeles on a back-to-back. I expect the Suns to win and am backing Devin Booker and James Harden to clear alternate point and 3-point totals, respectively.

Check out my Suns vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 31.

Suns vs. Clippers predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Parlay: Suns moneyline + Booker over 22.5 points + Harden over 2.5 threes (+285)

Suns moneyline (-205): The Suns’ Big Three is healthy and they’re looking good so far.

Embed: #98839

Phoenix is 3-1, with wins over the Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are efficiently filling the basket, but Mike Budenholzer’s calling card early on has been a stingy defence.

The squad ranks sixth in defensive rating and is holding opponents to the ninth-lowest field-goal percentage.

Without Kawhi Leonard in the mix, I struggle to see an aging Clippers roster buck that trend on the second night of a back-to-back. L.A. was 6-9 straight up on no rest last season.

SGP legs

Booker over 22.5 points (-175): Booker scored only 15 points against Los Angeles in the season opener, but he shot 5-of-9 from the field and 4-of-5 from deep.

Embed: #98848

Since then, he’s averaging 18.6 field goal attempts per game and has cleared this line in two of three contests. He just dropped 33 points on the Lakers and played a team-high 39 minutes.

I won’t let his opening night production discourage me because this should be a nice matchup.

The Clippers allowed the eighth-most points per game to opposing SGs last season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Booker averaged 27.1 PPG last season and cleared this line in 46 of 68 starts (67.6%).

Harden over 2.5 threes (-155): With the way stars tend to rest in the modern NBA, there is a chance Harden sits out tonight. But at home, against a divisional rival, I’m hoping L.A.’s main man plays.

Embed: #98840

The Beard ranks third among all starters in usage rate (33.9%) and is heaving up 9.3 threes a night. He’s only cleared this line once but went 5-of-11 from deep yesterday and 2-of-12 the game before that.

If he keeps firing at this rate, I love his chances of clearing this total.

Phoenix is a fine defensive team, but it ranked a middling 16th in opponent 3-point percentage last year. And this year, it ranks 22nd through four games.

Picks made at 8:52 a.m. on 10/31/24.