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NHL best bets Oct. 30: Bet on Canucks, Golden Knights to pick up wins

Two West Coast NHL games have my attention tonight.

The pregame narrative: The Vancouver Canucks wrap up their homestand with the New Jersey Devils in town and I expect them to win. Elsewhere, back the Vegas Golden Knights to beat the Los Angeles Kings.

Find my NHL best bets for Oct. 30 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Canucks moneyline (-124)

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Vancouver has impressed to start the season with a 4-1-3 record.

Rick Tocchet’s team has won four of its last five games with an overtime loss to the Carolina Hurricanes mixed in. During that stretch, the Canucks have scored three-plus goals in every contest while averaging 3.8 goals per game.

The Devils are still trying to find their way under new head coach Sheldon Keefe and have been a mess defensively so far.

New Jersey’s 6-4-2 record isn’t terrible but it has dropped four of the last five games while allowing an average of 5.0 goals per game.

Jacob Markstrom hasn’t been anything special in goal, either, with a 3.01 GAA (26th in NHL) and .895 SV% (27th).

He ranks 66th out of 70 goaltenders in Money Puck’s goals saved above expected.

Kevin Lankinen seems the likely candidate to start for Vancouver tonight and he’s been great, posting a 2.29 GAA and .920 SV%. The Finn is 20th in goals saved above expected.

Both teams can score, with the Hughes brothers leading the charge for each side. But Vancouver has been much better defensively and that should be the difference.

Key stat: Vancouver has at least gone to overtime in all four of its home games this season (2-0-2).

Quick pick

Golden Knights moneyline (-127): Yesterday, I backed the Kings to cover a -1.5 puck line against the lowly San Jose Sharks and they lost 4-2.

It was an ugly performance but just know this fade on L.A. isn’t purely out of spite.

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Vegas hammered Los Angeles, 6-1, a week ago and has now won four of its last five against its Pacific Division rivals.

The Golden Knights are 7-2-1 through 10 contests and averaging the most goals per game (4.70).

Even on the road, taking Vegas against a Los Angeles team on a back-to-back seems like a no-brainer.

NHL picks made at 1:27 p.m. ET 10/30/2024.

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Dodgers vs. Yankees Game 5 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Los Angeles to win the World Series in +275 SGP

The Los Angeles Dodgers have another chance to win the World Series tonight.

The pregame narrative: The New York Yankees staved off elimination yesterday but I think a gentleman’s sweep is in order. Back L.A. to win, Mookie Betts to record a hit, and fade Gerrit Cole on an alternate strikeout total.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Yankees same-game parlay predictions for Game 5 of the World Series on Oct. 30.

Yankees vs. Dodgers SGP predictions

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Parlay: Dodgers moneyline + Cole under 5.5 strikeouts + Betts over 0.5 hits (+275)

Dodgers moneyline (+130): New York’s bats exploded for 11 runs last night after combining for just seven across the first three games.

With Cole on the mound and a little momentum in their favour, taking the Yankees might seem like the right play.

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But the Dodgers have been the better team offensively this postseason and have their own stud on the bump.

Jack Flaherty posted a 3.10 ERA this season and was solid in the World Series opener, giving up two runs over 5.2 IP while striking out six. He had held New York scoreless through five before Giancarlo Stanton blasted a ball out of play.

I trust Flaherty to put Los Angeles in a good position early and believe Dave Roberts can work his elite bullpen from there onward.

The Dodgers are 9-3 since facing elimination in the NLDS while averaging 6.3 runs per game.

SGP legs

Cole under 5.5 strikeouts (-190): Cole isn’t at the height of his powers and Los Angeles has been incredibly difficult to retire on strikes this postseason.

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Fading the 2023 AL Cy Young winner at this number feels automatic.

Luis Gil threw 4.0 innings yesterday and recorded just one strikeout. Both Yankees starters before that — Clark Schmidt and Carlos Rodon — logged three while Cole had four punchouts in Game 1 last Friday.

Overall, opposing starters are 1-14 against this line versus Los Angeles in the playoffs.

Cole should have a longer leash than most starters but he’s thrown five-plus innings three times this playoffs and hasn’t cleared this line once.

In fact, he hasn’t even gotten to five strikeouts.

Betts over 0.5 hits (-278): There are a few players on L.A.’s roster who have Cole’s number.

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Kike Hernandez (.391) and Freddie Freeman (.348) are both batting well over .300 with 25-plus plate appearances while Betts is 7-for-20 (.350).

Taking any of those guys to record a hit is playable but Betts has just one strikeout in 20 ABs against Cole. That’s the difference for me.

Betts has a hit in seven of his last eight games and is batting .364 in that span.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 10/30/24.

Raptors vs. Hornets same-game parlay predictions Oct. 30: Back Toronto ATS, LaMelo Ball at +320

The Toronto Raptors hit the road without Scottie Barnes to play the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Barnes left Monday’s contest against the Denver Nuggets with an eye injury and is out but I still like Toronto to cover as road underdogs. Prop bets on LaMelo Ball and Ochai Agbaji round out this +320 SGP.

Check out my Raptors vs. Hornets same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 30.

Raptors vs. Hornets predictions

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Parlay: Raptors +6.5 + Ball over 24.5 points + Agbaji over 9.5 points (+320)

Raptors +6.5 (-113): Barnes is Toronto’s best player but let’s not forget who the Raptors are dealing with here.

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The Hornets went 21-61 last season and 27-55 the year before that. They’ve only been home favourites 14 times in that span but are 4-10 ATS in those games, according to Team Rankings.

Toronto might feel like a sideshow at times but Charlotte is a legitimate circus.

Brandon Miller and Mark Williams are out, representing two notable losses for the home team.

The Hornets are 1-2 on the season and 0-3 against this line. Don’t expect them to blow out the Raptors today.

SGP legs

Ball over 24.5 points (-230): No matter what happens, Ball is going to get his shots up.

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The fifth-year guard has averaged 19.7 field goal attempts over the last two seasons and is at 20.7 through three games this year (while averaging 31.7 points and going 3-0 against this line).

Ball loves to let it fly from deep (he’s averaging 12.0 3PA per game), which is a boon for any over bettor.

The Raptors had the sixth-highest opponent 3-point percentage last year (39.7) and currently have the fifth-highest through the first week of the season (39.7).

Agbaji over 10.5 points (-162): Agbaji could be a nice reclamation project for Darko Rajakovic and the Raptors.

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The Kansas product won the 2022 NCAA Final Four Most Outstanding Player and was drafted 14th overall by the Utah Jazz that year.

He wasn’t a game-changer in Salt Lake City but has been on a solid run for Toronto in his third year as a pro.

Agbaji is averaging 12.3 points on 58.8% shooting, clearing this line in three straight games.

He put up 19 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday and 15 against the Denver Nuggets on Monday, attempting 12 field goals in each contest.

Those are two respectable teams — Charlotte is not. Agbaji has earned more playing time and I like his chances of having another solid game.

Picks made at 10:03 a.m. on 10/30/24.

NFL Week 9 upset picks: Back Patriots, Jaguars as underdogs

The New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars are my two NFL Week 9 upset picks.

The pregame narrative: New England takes on a spiralling Tennesee Titans team while the Jacksonville Jaguars look to end the Philadelphia Eagles’ winning streak.

Check out these NFL Week 9 upset picks.

NFL Week 9 upset picks

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Best bet: Patriots moneyline (+145)

The Patriots needed a borderline miracle to beat the New York Jets last week but they did it, effectively ending their divisional rivals’ season.

Drake Maye was flashing early on but exited the game with a concussion, leaving Jacoby Brissett to take the reins. The journeyman was serviceable in his absence, completing 15-of-24 passes for 132 yards and no turnovers in the win.

If Maye can suit up, I love New England’s chances this week. But even if he can’t, this is a good spot to back the Pats.

The Titans are horrible and have quarterback issues of their own with Mason Rudolph taking over for an injured Will Levis a few weeks ago. Head coach Brian Callahan stated he’s “hopeful” Levis will return but that’s not a good thing in my books.

The 2023 second-rounder has made some baffling decisions this year and ranks 31st among all qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play (-0.241). When you’re behind guys like Deshaun Watson, there is an issue.

Brissett hasn’t been much better but he’s a veteran who can take care of the ball with just one interception on the season.

Tennesee’s defence has gotten torched in consecutive weeks by the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions, allowing 86 points in two games. L’Jarius Sneed is also at risk of missing a second straight game.

Key stat: Tennesee is 2-9 in its last 11 games dating back to 2023.

Week 9 upset predictions

Jaguars moneyline (+285): Jacksonville is in the dumps but has been playing better than its 2-6 record suggests.

The Jaguars are 2-3 over their last five games with competitive losses to the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans. In that span, they’re averaging a healthy 26.4 PPG while ranking ninth in offensive EPA per play.

Philadelphia is finally healthy and has kicked around some bad teams lately, but I still don’t trust it as a contender — especially with Nick Sirianni at the helm.

Jacksonville’s secondary is awful but its run defence is much better, which bodes well against the run-heavy scheme Philly will want to employ.

The Eagles should win this game, but these are called upset picks for a reason. I say Doug Pederson exacts some revenge against his old team.

Picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 10/29/2024.

Texans vs. Jets Week 9 TNF best bets and odds: Take the under, back Joe Mixon

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Houston Texans (6-2) lead the AFC South while the New York Jets (2-6) have lost five straight. Injuries to Houston’s receiving corps have the Texans as slight underdogs, but I’m staying away from backing a side. Instead, take the under and roll with Joe Mixon.

Check out my Texans vs. Jets best bets for the Week 9 matchup on Thursday Night Football.

Texans vs. Jets best bets

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Best bet: Mixon over 77.5 rushing yards (-118)

Mixon is as close to a bell-cow back as you’re going to get in the modern NFL.

The first-year Texan toted the ball 30 times for 159 yards in his debut before getting injured the following game. Since returning to the lineup on Oct. 13, he’s put up 100-plus rushing yards in three straight while receiving 25 carries in back-to-back games.

Mixon gashed the Indianapolis Colts for 102 yards his last time out and they’re one of the NFL’s better teams at stopping the run, ranking seventh in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per rush.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank 21st and have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to tailbacks.

Giving the ball to Mixon early and often seems like a no-brainer — especially with Nico Collins out and Stefon Diggs doubtful.

Key stat: Excluding the game where he left early with an injury, Mixon is 4-0 against this line while averaging 119.5 rushing yards per game.

Quick pick

Under 42 points (-110): How often have we seen ugly Thursday Night Football games?

It seems like more often than not fans are subjected to a slog of an appetizer before Sunday’s main course, and with Houston banged up and New York being New York, I expect that to continue.

Aaron Rodgers and Co. are putting up the eighth-fewest points (18.8) and ninth-fewest yards (310.6) per game, and DeMeco Ryans has Houston’s defence flying.

The Texans rank eighth in defensive EPA per play and seventh in pressure rate.

And while I expect Mixon to churn, I don’t think it’ll lead to many points.

Houston’s home/away splits under C.J. Stroud are stark: He has a 106.3 passer rating at home while putting up 24.0 PPG and a 90.5 passer rating on the road (21.5 PPG).

Picks made at 12:25 p.m. ET 10/29/2024.

NHL best bets Oct. 29: Back the Los Angeles Kings, Montreal Canadiens to win

I’m fading the NHL’s worst team on a back-to-back tonight.

The pregame narrative: The San Jose Sharks won their first game of the season yesterday but I think the good times will be short-lived. Back the Los Angeles Kings on the puck line and also bet on the Montreal Canadiens to win.

Find my NHL best bets for Oct. 29 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Kings -1.5 (-118)

The Sharks were staring down another multi-goal defeat with just over 4:30 remaining in the game last night before rallying from 4-1 to force overtime and beat the Utah Hockey Club.

It was a nice moment for a team that started its year off 0-7-2 but don’t expect another win so soon.

San Jose went 19-54-9 last season, putting up the lowest points percentage (.287) since the 1998-99 Tampa Bay Lightning. Its reward was the right to draft No. 1 overall pick Macklin Celebrini but he’s injured and won’t return to the lineup for at least a few more weeks.

Offence is difficult to come by and defence is non-existent. San Jose is allowing the second-most goals (4.20) and sixth-most shots (32.8) per game while scoring the third-fewest goals per game (2.30).

Vitek Vanecek will be in goal for the Sharks tonight, and he owns a 4.00 GAA and .869 SV% through five starts. Those numbers rank 50th and 49th, respectively, among all NHL goalies … in a 32-team league.

The Kings are far from a juggernaut but they own a tidy 5-2-2 record through nine games with three multi-goal victories. They played San Jose last week and won 3-2 but I think a blowout is well within the cards tonight.

Key stat: San Jose’s opponents are 6-4 against this line this season.

Quick pick

Canadiens to win (+150): The Canadiens are 4-4-1 through nine games which is much better than expected, especially after Patrick Laine went down with an injury before the season began.

Back at home, against an underwhelming Seattle Kraken team, I like Montreal to pick up a third straight win.

Seattle has lost three in a row after starting the season off 4-2-0 and ranks a pedestrian 19th in even-strength chances per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Sam Montembeault has been hot and cold for the Canadiens but owns a respectable 2.94 GAA and .914 SV%. He’s held three of six opponents to two or fewer goals and the Kraken’s offence doesn’t scare me one bit.

NHL picks made at 3:26 p.m. ET 10/29/2024.

NHL best bets Oct. 29: Back the Los Angeles Kings, Montreal Canadiens to win

I’m fading the NHL’s worst team on a back-to-back tonight.

The pregame narrative: The San Jose Sharks won their first game of the season yesterday but I think the good times will be short-lived. Back the Los Angeles Kings on the puck line and also bet on the Montreal Canadiens to win.

Find my NHL best bets for Oct. 29 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Kings -1.5 (-108)

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The Sharks were staring down another multi-goal defeat with just over 4:30 remaining in the game last night before rallying from 4-1 to force overtime and beat the Utah Hockey Club.

It was a nice moment for a team that started its year off 0-7-2 but don’t expect another win so soon.

San Jose went 19-54-9 last season, putting up the lowest points percentage (.287) since the 1998-99 Tampa Bay Lightning. Its reward was the right to draft No. 1 overall pick Macklin Celebrini but he’s injured and won’t return to the lineup for at least a few more weeks.

Offence is difficult to come by and defence is non-existent. San Jose is allowing the second-most goals (4.20) and sixth-most shots (32.8) per game while scoring the third-fewest goals per game (2.30).

Vitek Vanecek will be in goal for the Sharks tonight, and he owns a 4.00 GAA and .869 SV% through five starts. Those numbers rank 50th and 49th, respectively, among all NHL goalies … in a 32-team league.

The Kings are far from a juggernaut but they own a tidy 5-2-2 record through nine games with three multi-goal victories. They played San Jose last week and won 3-2 but I think a blowout is well within the cards tonight.

Key stat: San Jose’s opponents are 6-4 against this line this season.

Quick pick

Canadiens to win (+145): The Canadiens are 4-4-1 through nine games which is much better than expected, especially after Patrick Laine went down with an injury before the season began.

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Back at home, against an underwhelming Seattle Kraken team, I like Montreal to pick up a third straight win.

Seattle has lost three in a row after starting the season off 4-2-0 and ranks a pedestrian 19th in even-strength chances per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Sam Montembeault has been hot and cold for the Canadiens but owns a respectable 2.94 GAA and .914 SV%. He’s held three of six opponents to two or fewer goals and the Kraken’s offence doesn’t scare me one bit.

NHL picks made at 3:26 p.m. ET 10/29/2024.

NFL Week 9 upset picks: Back Patriots, Jaguars as underdogs

The New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars are my two NFL Week 9 upset picks.

The pregame narrative: New England takes on a spiralling Tennesee Titans team while the Jacksonville Jaguars look to end the Philadelphia Eagles’ winning streak.

Check out these NFL Week 9 upset picks.

NFL Week 9 upset picks

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Best bet: Patriots moneyline (+150)

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