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Best NHL prop pick Oct. 28: Back Connor Bedard and Clayton Keller to produce

Today’s top NHL prop pick is a parlay featuring Connor Bedard and Clayton Keller.

The pregame narrative: The Colorado Avalanche have won five straight and welcome the struggling Chicago Blackhawks into town. But I don’t trust Colorado’s goaltending situation, which makes Bedard a prime target. Elsewhere, Clayton Keller should have a night against the NHL’s worst team.

Find my NHL prop pick for Oct. 28 below.

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Best Bet: Bedard and Keller 1+ points each (+105)

Colorado started the season off 0-4-0 before rattling off five straight wins.

One big reason for the team’s recent success is Justus Annunen. The 24-year-old netminder started the season behind Alexandar Georgiev on the depth chart but has taken the starting role after the latter imploded to begin the year.

Annunen entered in relief of Georgiev twice before making his first start against the San Jose Sharks, where he turned away 25 shots in a 4-1 win.

But he played yesterday, and that means Georgiev is likely back in net tonight. He owns a 4.99 GAA to pair with an unsightly .811 SV% and is allowing -2.47 goals below expected per 60, according to Money Puck.

Bedard is following up his Calder Trophy-winning rookie season in style, with three goals and nine points in nine games. He’s already the best player on the Blackhawks and I expect him to produce tonight.

Colorado is allowing the fourth-most goals per game (4.00).

Keller should feast against Sharks

It’s difficult to contextualize how bad the Sharks are, but let me try.

They went 19-54-9 last season, putting up the lowest points percentage this millennium (.287). And things are even worse for San Jose this season.

The club is 0-7-2 through nine games, allowing the second-most goals per game (4.22).

It’s a feeding frenzy for every team that plays the Sharks and I expect Keller to be the latest beneficiary.

The Utah Hockey Club forward has nine points in as many games, cashing this bet six times.

Those aren’t eye-popping numbers but he still leads the team in shots (28) and is second in chances (50), per Natural Stat Trick.

NHL picks made at 4:09 p.m. ET 10/28/2024.

Best NHL prop picks Oct. 28: Back Connor Bedard and Cale Makar to produce

Today’s top NHL prop pick is a parlay featuring Connor Bedard and Cale Makar.

The pregame narrative: The Colorado Avalanche have won five straight and welcome the struggling Chicago Blackhawks into town. I don’t trust either team’s goaltending situation, which makes Bedard and Makar prime targets. Elsewhere, I’ll take a plus-money swing at Clayton Keller having a night.

Find my NHL prop picks for Oct. 28 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Bedard and Makar 1+ points each (-120)

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Colorado started the season off 0-4-0 before rattling off five straight wins.

One big reason for the team’s recent success is Justus Annunen. The 24-year-old netminder started the season behind Alexander Georgiev on the depth chart but has taken the starting role after the latter imploded to begin the year.

Annunen entered in relief of Georgiev twice before making his first start against the San Jose Sharks, where he turned away 25 shots in a 4-1 win.

But he played yesterday, and that means Georgiev is likely back in the net. He owns a 4.99 GAA to pair with an unsightly .811 SV% and is allowing -2.47 goals below expected per 60, according to Money Puck.

Bedard is following up his Calder Trophy-winning rookie season in style, with three goals and nine points in nine games. He’s already the best player on the Blackhawks and I expect him to produce tonight.

Not much has to be said about Makar, who is -455 to find the stat sheet tonight.

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The 25-year-old is the best defenceman on the planet and has 16 points, cashing this bet in every single game. Last year he led all rearguards with 1.17 points per game.

Chicago is starting Petr Mrazek and he’s been poor, posting a 3.20 GAA and .893 SV% in seven starts.

Key stat: Colorado (4.00) and Chicago (3.44) are allowing the fourth and 11th-most goals per game, respectively.

Quick picks

Keller to score 2+ points (+200): It’s difficult to contextualize how bad the Sharks are, but let me try.

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They went 19-54-9 last season, putting up the lowest points percentage this millennium (.287). Things are even worse for San Jose now as it is 0-7-2 through nine games while allowing the second-most goals per game (4.22).

It’s a feeding frenzy for every team that plays the Sharks and I expect Keller to be the latest beneficiary.

The Utah Hockey Club forward has nine points in as many games, cashing this bet twice. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers but he still leads the team in shots (28) and is second in chances (50), per Natural Stat Trick.

NHL picks made at 3:15 p.m. ET 10/28/2024.

Lakers vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions Oct. 28: Bet on Reaves and Durant at +310

The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers meet for the second time in four days.

The pregame narrative: The Lakers are 3-0 with a win over the Suns in Los Angeles on Friday. I expect Phoenix to return the favour on its home court and have prop bets on Austin Reaves and Kevin Durant to round out this +310 SGP.

Check out my Lakers vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 28.

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Parlay: Suns +3.5 + Reaves over 24.5 PRA + Durant over 24.5 points (+310)

Suns +3.5 (-315): I think Phoenix wins tonight but will bank a few points just to be safe.

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Each of Los Angeles’ three wins came within the friendly confines of Crypto.com Arena. The Lakers went 20-24 on the road last season (regular season and playoffs included) and have lost six of their last seven games at Footprint Center.

LeBron James is still elite and Anthony Davis is playing out of his mind, but L.A. has gotten a tad lucky.

The Lakers shot 20 more free throws than the Suns on Friday and Davis, specifically, is attempting 15.0 free throws per game after averaging 6.9 last season. He is due for some regression and Phoenix should get a better whistle at home.

The Suns just handed the reigning Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks a 12-point defeat and I think they keep the good times rolling tonight.

SGP legs

Reaves over 24.5 PRA (-136): Reaves is any coach’s dream player. He’s efficient from the field, plays solid defence, and can stuff the stat sheet in more ways than one.

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The fourth-year shooting guard has cleared this line in every game and is averaging 30.7 PRA so far. His best outing was a 25-4-8 performance against the Suns on Friday.

Reaves is averaging 12.7 field goal attempts per game and that volume is what I’m looking for.

Phoenix also gave up the seventh-most rebounds and ninth-most assists to shooting guards last season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Durant over 24.5 points (-143): LeBron gets a ton of deserved respect for performing in the later years of his career but Durant is just as machine-like.

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The four-time scoring champion hasn’t averaged fewer than 25.0 points per game since his rookie season and has put up north of 27.0 PPG in both of his full seasons with Phoenix.

He’s cleared this line in each game so far and is coming off back-to-back performances of 30-plus points, shooting 11-of-17 against the Lakers last Friday.

KD averaged 28.0 PPG at home last season and cleared this mark in 26 of 36 games played at Footprint Center (72.2%).

Picks made at 1:54 p.m. on 10/28/24.

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Giants vs. Steelers Week 8 MNF TD picks: Back Najee Harris and Malik Nabers

Najee Harris and Malik Nabers are my picks to score on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers host the New York Giants to wrap up Week 8. Harris has been getting a steady workload while Nabers is Daniel Jones’ clear-cut No. 1 target. Both have a solid chance of finding pay dirt as a result.

Check out my Giants vs. Steelers TD picks for Monday Night Football on Oct. 28.

Giants vs. Steelers TD picks

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Best Bet: Harris anytime TD (-112)

Harris has been Pittsburgh’s bell-cow back all season and things are starting to break his way.

The fourth-year RB leads the team with 131 touches (18.7 per game) and has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks. In those games, he toted the ball a combined 35 times for 208 yards (5.9 yards per carry).

Harris didn’t catch a pass in Week 7 for the first time in nine games, but I’ll chalk that up as coincidental with Russell Wilson making his first start.

Either way, he is far more likely to score as a runner than a receiver. All 10 of Harris’ touchdowns since last season came on the ground.

I’m also not worried about Jaylen Warren cutting into his opportunities. The second-string RB hasn’t looked great since returning from a knee injury in Week 6 and is averaging just 3.3 YPC on the season.

New York’s defence ranks 13th in points allowed but is 20th in EPA per play thanks to some timely red zone stops. But I say the G-Men regress tonight and Harris gets in.

Key stat: Harris has taken 82.1% of Pittsburgh’s red zone rushes, which is the fourth-highest mark of any RB in the NFL, per Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Nabers anytime TD (+150): Betting against Pittsburgh’s defence in any capacity is risky, but this price on Nabers is too good to pass up.

The rookie out of LSU leads the NFL in targets per game (12.0) and still has a 26.1% target share despite missing two games.

Nabers has scored three times in five starts and put up 75-plus receiving yards in three games, too. He’s already one of the league’s best and I’ll bank on him getting the ball the few times New York makes it into the red zone tonight.

Picks made at 12:24 p.m. ET 10/28/2024.

Giants vs. Steelers Week 8 MNF TD picks: Back Najee Harris and Malik Nabers

Najee Harris and Malik Nabers are my picks to score on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers host the New York Giants to wrap up Week 8. Harris has been getting a steady workload while Nabers is Daniel Jones’ clear-cut No. 1 target. Both have a solid chance of finding pay dirt as a result.

Check out my Giants vs. Steelers TD picks for Monday Night Football on Oct. 28.

Giants vs. Steelers TD picks

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Best Bet: Harris anytime TD (-103)

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Harris has been Pittsburgh’s bell-cow back all season and things are starting to break his way.

The fourth-year RB leads the team with 131 touches (18.7 per game) and has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks. In those games, he toted the ball a combined 35 times for 208 yards (5.9 yards per carry).

Harris didn’t catch a pass in Week 7 for the first time in nine games, but I’ll chalk that up as coincidental with Russell Wilson making his first start.

Either way, he is far more likely to score as a runner than a receiver. All 10 of Harris’ touchdowns since last season came on the ground.

I’m also not worried about Jaylen Warren cutting into his opportunities. The second-string RB hasn’t looked great since returning from a knee injury in Week 6 and is averaging just 3.3 YPC on the season.

New York’s defence ranks 13th in points allowed but is 20th in EPA per play thanks to some timely red zone stops. But I say the G-Men regress tonight and Harris gets in.

Key stat: Harris has taken 82.1% of Pittsburgh’s red zone rushes, which is the fourth-highest mark of any RB in the NFL, per Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Nabers anytime TD (+200): Betting against Pittsburgh’s defence in any capacity is risky, but this price on Nabers is too good to pass up.

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The rookie out of LSU leads the NFL in targets per game (12.0) and still has a 26.1% target share despite missing two games.

Nabers has scored three times in five starts and put up 75-plus receiving yards in three games, too. He’s already one of the league’s best and I’ll bank on him getting the ball the few times New York makes it into the red zone tonight.

Picks made at 12:24 p.m. ET 10/28/2024.

Maple Leafs vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions Oct. 28: Back Marner, Connor at +225

The undefeated Winnipeg Jets welcome the Toronto Maple Leafs into town on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Winnipeg is 8-0-0 largely thanks to the stellar play of Connor Hellebuyck. Toronto, meanwhile, has lost three straight with three different goalies. I’m taking the under on an alternate game total but do expect Mitch Marner and Kyle Connor to contribute.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 28.

Maple Leafs vs. Jets predictions

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Parlay: Under 7.5 goals + Marner over 0.5 points + Scheifele over 0.5 points (+225)

Over 7.5 goals (-345): Hellebuyck won the Vezina Trophy last year and would be right in the mix if the season ended today.

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Sure, we’re only a few weeks in, but the American is sporting a 1.66 GAA and .940 SV% through six starts (both second among NHL goalies). Hellebuyck also ranks eighth in Money Puck’s goals saved above expected (4.5).

Two spots above him on that list is Anthony Stolarz (5.0 goals saved above expected), who has made a strong first impression with the Maple Leafs’ faithful.

The 30-year-old netminder owns a 2.19 GAA and .927 SV%, and five of his seven starts have fallen under this total.

With two hot goalies playing I can’t see this turning into a track meet.

SGP legs

Marner over 0.5 points (-265): A seven-goal cushion gives us enough leeway to back two players finding the stat sheet, and Marner is an obvious choice for the Leafs.

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He was involved in each of Toronto’s three goals on Saturday and is up to 10 points on the season while playing north of 20 minutes a night.

Marner hasn’t quite caught fire yet, but he’s riding shotgun with Auston Matthews and is on the team’s top power play unit. That means he should have plenty of opportunities to produce.

Connor over 0.5 points (-225): Connor also sits at 10 points and has found the stat sheet in every game so far.

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The sharpshooter skates on Line 1 alongside an elite playmaker (Mark Scheifele) and is Winnipeg’s top power play option.

Connor leads all Jets in shots (29) and chances (55), according to Natural Stat Trick.

NHL picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 10/28/24.

Mavericks vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions Oct. 26: Back Doncic and Durant at +390

The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns meet for a star-studded matchup in the desert tonight.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic has routinely torched the Suns and I expect him to lead the Mavs to a road win tonight. A prop bet on Kevin Durant rounds out this +390 same-game parlay.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 26.

Mavericks vs. Suns predictions

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Parlay: Mavericks moneyline + Doncic over 3.5 threes + Durant over 21.5 points (+390)

Mavericks moneyline (-148): Dallas came out of the Western Conference last season before losing in the NBA Finals and I expect it to establish dominance early.

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The Mavericks picked up a tidy 11-point road win against the San Antonio Spurs in their opener and now get a Suns team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Phoenix lost to the Los Angeles Lakers last night and barely scraped by an injury-riddled Los Angeles Clippers team in overtime on Wednesday.

Dallas is fully healthy and Klay Thompson looked vintage against San Antonio on Thursday, scoring 22 points on 6-of-10 shooting from deep. I think Phoenix will have its hands full between Thompson, Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

SGP legs

Doncic over 3.5 threes (+110): Way back in 2018, Phoenix made a franchise-altering blunder when it selected Arizona product Deandre Ayton over Doncic in the NBA Draft. The Suns have done well since but Doncic tends to let them know what they missed out on.

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The Slovenian superstar is averaging 34.1 points in his last 10 games against Phoenix, excluding one contest where he left early due to an injury.

Luka has turned up the heat recently, scoring 41, 34 and 50 points in his last three games against the Suns while clearing this line in each contest.

He averaged the second-most 3-point attempts (10.6) and makes (4.1) last season. Thompson is going to cut into that volume a bit but with revenge on his mind, I expect Doncic to clear this total.

Durant over 21.5 points (-295): Durant can usually blow by this line in his sleep.

Embed: #98446

The four-time scoring champion hasn’t averaged 25.0 points per game since his rookie season and has put up north of 27.0 in both of his full seasons with the Suns.

KD has scored 25 and 30 points through two games and cleared this line in 57 of 75 starts (76.0%) last season.

He did go under this mark in two of three games against the Mavericks but I’m not going to let that small sample cloud my judgment of what KD is: A walking bucket.

Picks made at 3:15 p.m. on 10/26/24.

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Best NBA prop bets Oct. 26: Fade Anthony Davis, back Franz Wagner and Nikola Vucevic

The NBA contributes 10 games to a jam-packed Saturday night in sports.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Vucevic headlines today’s prop bets and I have additional recommendations on Franz Wagner and Anthony Davis.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 26.

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Best Bet: Vucevic over 10.5 rebounds (-138)

A few days ago I backed Nikola Jokic to go over 12.5 rebounds against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

He fell just shy with 12 in a losing effort but I’ll go back to the well tonight … except with Vucevic. The logic for this pick is the same: The Thunder have a big rebounding problem.

Last year, OKC ranked inside the top four for offensive rating, defensive rating, and effective field goal percentage but was 28th in rebounding rate.

Sam Presti acquired Isiah Hartenstein in free agency to address that issue but he’s out for the foreseeable future with a hand injury.

That means Chet Holmgren will be Vucevic’s dance partner which should be a recipe for success (on the glass, at least). The 7-foot-1, 208-pound Holmgren has a unicorn skillset but is far from an imposing rebounder.

Vucevic has nearly 60 pounds on Holmgren and has recorded 11 and 10 rebounds in his two starts this year. He also cleared this mark in six of his last eight games to close out the 2023-24 season (play-in included).

Key stat: Last season, OKC allowed the fifth-most rebounds per game to centres (15.47), according to Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Wagner over 1.5 threes (-108): Wagner is coming off a solid season which ended on a bad note.

The German forward shot 1-for-15 from the field in Game 7 of the opening round and went 0-for-5 from deep. It exacerbated his 3-point struggles throughout the year and gave him something to focus on during the offseason.

We’re only two games into the season, but so far, so good.

Wagner has gone 3-for-6 from beyond the arc in both games and the Magic are 2-0.

Tonight he gets to play a Memphis Grizzlies team which had the fourth-highest opponent 3-point percentage last season.

Davis under 26.5 points (-125): Fading Davis after his red-hot start is a bold move but I’m here for it.

The Brow dropped 36 and 35 points through his first two games while making 13 free throws in each contest. Getting to the line is a skill but AD only averaged 6.8 free throw attempts per game last year so I’m banking on some regression.

However, this is more about Davis’ opponent than his success at the charity stripe.

He’s going up against the Sacramento Kings and that’s proven to be a tough matchup. Davis is 1-4 against this line since he joined the Lakers and Domantas Sabonis joined the Kings, averaging 19.8 points in those contests.

Sacramento allowed the 13th-fewest paint points per game last season.

Picks made at 12:23 p.m. on 10/26/2024.

Raptors vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Oct. 26: Back DiVincenzo, Minnesota at +290

The Toronto Raptors battle the Minnesota Timberwolves for the first road game of their young season.

The pregame narrative: Toronto beat an injury-riddled Philadelphia 76ers team last night but is a massive underdog against the Western Conference juggernaut T-Wolves. I’m backing Minnesota to cover an alternate spread alongside props on Donte DiVincenzo and Scottie Barnes.

Check out my Raptors vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 26.

Raptors vs. Timberwolves predictions

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Parlay: Timberwolves -9.5 + DiVincenzo over 2.5 threes + Barnes under 7.5 rebounds (+290)

Timberwolves -9.5 (-220): Don’t let Toronto’s win yesterday fool you, this team is not good.

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Philadelphia didn’t have Joel Embiid or Paul George in the lineup and Tyrese Maxey shot an awful 6-for-23 from the floor… and the Raptors still only won by eight.

Two days before that Toronto was blown out by 30 points on its home court by the Cleveland Cavaliers and I expect another rout tonight.

The T-Wolves were one of the best home teams last season, boasting a 30-11 record and a +8.2 net rating (fourth-best in the NBA). They’ve started 1-1 on the road with a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers and a close win over the Sacramento Kings.

Back within the friendly confines of Target Center things should come much easier.

Toronto had the worst net rating post-trade deadline last year (-11.3) and is likely without RJ Barrett again tonight.

SGP legs

DiVincenzo over 2.5 threes (+120): DiVincenzo is a pure shooter and I expect him to have a field day against Toronto’s defence.

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He hasn’t found his footing with the T-Wolves just yet but is still averaging 7.0 three-point attempts per game. DiVincenzo was a lightning rod for the New York Knicks last year, cashing in 3.5 triples per game at an impressive 40.1% clip.

If the volume is there the shots will begin to fall.

Toronto had the sixth-highest opponent 3-point percentage last year and gave up the fifth-most triples to opposing SGs per game, per Fantasy Pros.

Barnes under 7.5 rebounds (-200): Yesterday, I missed a +320 SGP with Barnes over 7.5 rebounds being the losing leg. I’m taking the other side of that wager tonight but just know it’s not out of spite.

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The Timberwolves are a nightmare matchup for Barnes, whose regular line is set at over/under 6.5 and slightly shaded toward the over (-125).

Minnesota was eighth in rebounding rate last year and allowed the 12th fewest boards per game to opposing small forwards. And that was before the squad added Julius Randle, who is a menace on the glass.

Barnes is 0-2 against this line with six and five rebounds in his two games.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 10/26/24.

Best NBA prop bets Oct. 26: Fade Anthony Davis, back Franz Wagner and Nikola Vucevic

The NBA contributes 10 games to a jam-packed Saturday night in sports.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Vucevic headlines today’s prop bets and I have additional recommendations on Franz Wagner and Anthony Davis.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 26.

NBA prop bets

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Best Bet: Vucevic over 10.5 rebounds (-130)

Embed: #98420

A few days ago I backed Nikola Jokic to go over 12.5 rebounds against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

He fell just shy with 12 in a losing effort but I’ll go back to the well tonight … except with Vucevic. The logic for this pick is the same: The Thunder have a big rebounding problem.

Last year, OKC ranked inside the top four for offensive rating, defensive rating, and effective field goal percentage but was 28th in rebounding rate.

Sam Presti acquired Isiah Hartenstein in free agency to address that issue but he’s out for the foreseeable future with a hand injury.

That means Chet Holmgren will be Vucevic’s dance partner which should be a recipe for success (on the glass, at least). The 7-foot-1, 208-pound Holmgren has a unicorn skillset but is far from an imposing rebounder.

Vucevic has nearly 60 pounds on Holmgren and has recorded 11 and 10 rebounds in his two starts this year. He also cleared this mark in six of his last eight games to close out the 2023-24 season (play-in included).

Key stat: Last season, OKC allowed the fifth-most rebounds per game to centres (15.47), according to Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Wagner over 1.5 threes (-110): Wagner is coming off a solid season which ended on a bad note.

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The German forward shot 1-for-15 from the field in Game 7 of the opening round and went 0-for-5 from deep. It exacerbated his 3-point struggles throughout the year and gave him something to focus on during the offseason.

We’re only two games into the season, but so far, so good.

Wagner has gone 3-for-6 from beyond the arc in both games and the Magic are 2-0.

Tonight he gets to play a Memphis Grizzlies team which had the fourth-highest opponent 3-point percentage last season.

Davis under 25.5 points (-115): Fading Davis after his red-hot start is a bold move but I’m here for it.

Embed: #98422

The Brow dropped 36 and 35 points through his first two games while making 13 free throws in each contest. Getting to the line is a skill but AD only averaged 6.8 free throw attempts per game last year so I’m banking on some regression.

However, this is more about Davis’ opponent than his success at the charity stripe.

He’s going up against the Sacramento Kings and that’s proven to be a tough matchup. Davis is 1-4 against this line since he joined the Lakers and Domantas Sabonis joined the Kings, averaging 19.8 points in those contests.

Sacramento allowed the 13th-fewest paint points per game last season.

Picks made at 12:23 p.m. on 10/26/2024.