The New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars are my two NFL Week 9 upset picks.
The pregame narrative: New England takes on a spiralling Tennesee Titans team while the Jacksonville Jaguars look to end the Philadelphia Eagles’ winning streak.
Check out these NFL Week 9 upset picks.
NFL Week 9 upset picks
Go to full NFL Week 9 betting markets.
Best bet: Patriots moneyline (+145)
The Patriots needed a borderline miracle to beat the New York Jets last week but they did it, effectively ending their divisional rivals’ season.
Drake Maye was flashing early on but exited the game with a concussion, leaving Jacoby Brissett to take the reins. The journeyman was serviceable in his absence, completing 15-of-24 passes for 132 yards and no turnovers in the win.
If Maye can suit up, I love New England’s chances this week. But even if he can’t, this is a good spot to back the Pats.
The Titans are horrible and have quarterback issues of their own with Mason Rudolph taking over for an injured Will Levis a few weeks ago. Head coach Brian Callahan stated he’s “hopeful” Levis will return but that’s not a good thing in my books.
The 2023 second-rounder has made some baffling decisions this year and ranks 31st among all qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play (-0.241). When you’re behind guys like Deshaun Watson, there is an issue.
Brissett hasn’t been much better but he’s a veteran who can take care of the ball with just one interception on the season.
Tennesee’s defence has gotten torched in consecutive weeks by the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions, allowing 86 points in two games. L’Jarius Sneed is also at risk of missing a second straight game.
Key stat: Tennesee is 2-9 in its last 11 games dating back to 2023.
Week 9 upset predictions
Jaguars moneyline (+285): Jacksonville is in the dumps but has been playing better than its 2-6 record suggests.
The Jaguars are 2-3 over their last five games with competitive losses to the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans. In that span, they’re averaging a healthy 26.4 PPG while ranking ninth in offensive EPA per play.
Philadelphia is finally healthy and has kicked around some bad teams lately, but I still don’t trust it as a contender — especially with Nick Sirianni at the helm.
Jacksonville’s secondary is awful but its run defence is much better, which bodes well against the run-heavy scheme Philly will want to employ.
The Eagles should win this game, but these are called upset picks for a reason. I say Doug Pederson exacts some revenge against his old team.
Picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 10/29/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.