The Paolo Banchero-less Orlando Magic travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks tonight.
The pregame narrative: With Orlando missing its best player I expect Dallas to pick up a win on home court. Prop bets on Luka Doncic and Franz Wagner round out this +300 SGP.
Check out my Magic vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 3.
Magic vs. Mavericks predictions
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Parlay: Mavericks moneyline + Doncic over 2.5 threes + Wagner over 19.5 points (+300)
Mavericks moneyline (-250): Banchero was lighting the league on fire before suffering an oblique tear on Wednesday, averaging 29.0 points 8.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists on 49.5% shooting.
His 31.1% usage rate was the 15-highest in the NBA and that type of production is impossible to replace.
I think Wagner can chip in (more on that later) but will fade Orlando against the reigning Western Conference champs in Dallas.
The Mavericks are 3-2 and have a relatively clean bill of health with their Big Three of Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson all available.
Orlando has gotten torched from beyond the arc this year and that trio should make it pay.
SGP legs
Doncic over 2.5 threes (-155): How bad has the Magic been at defending the deep ball? Opponents are connecting at a 38.3% clip so far which is the fifth-highest rate in the NBA.
That’s a massive shock considering Orlando held opponents to the sixth-lowest rate last year.
Doncic doesn’t have as big a piece of the pie as he did last year but he’s still attempting a healthy 9.6 three-pointers a night, clearing this mark in three of five games.
Last year, he went over 2.5 threes in 54 of 70 games (77.1%).
If Luka stays anywhere near his current volume I love his chances of having a night.
Wagner over 19.5 points (-152): Wagner is going to have to elevate his game with Banchero sidelined and this is a good matchup for him to succeed.
The German forward is averaging 17.7 points on 49.4% shooting, clearing this total in three of six games. He went under this line in the first game without Banchero but put up 19 shots which is the type of volume I like to see.
The Mavericks have allowed the seventh-most PPG to opposing power forwards (25.97), according to Fantasy Pros.
Picks made at 11:25 a.m. on 11/03/24.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.