The Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks meet tonight for an intrastate showdown.
The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is ice cold from 3-point land but I expect him to break out of that funk tonight. Also, expect Houston to cover an alternate spread behind a strong game from Jabari Smith Jr.
Check out my Rockets vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 31.
Rockets vs. Mavericks predictions
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Parlay: Rockets +10.5 + Doncic over 2.5 threes + Smith Jr. over 18.5 points and rebounds (+295)
Rockets +10.5 (-205): Houston went 1-3 against Dallas last year but covered this line in three of those games, including both at American Airlines Center.
The Rockets are also 4-0 against this line this season while the Mavericks are 1-3 (barely covering it in a 120-109 win over the San Antonio Spurs on opening night).
Perhaps a blowout game is on the horizon for Dallas, but I can’t see it happening against a Houston team that plays stingy defence.
The Rockets ranked 10th in defensive rating last year and are eighth through four games played in 2024-25.
SGP legs
Doncic over 2.5 threes (-180): Doncic was 0-for-7 from deep on Tuesday before hitting a massive step-back dagger from the logo to down the Minnesota Timberwolves
He went 1-of-9 the game before that, so Doncic definitely isn’t “feeling it” from deep. That said, he’s still attempting 10.3 threes a night and has proven to be a capable scorer from long range.
Doncic netted four triples in Dallas’ opener and five the game after that. Last year, he cleared this mark in 54 of 70 games (77.1%).
The addition of Klay Thompson muddies the water a little, but I’ll still back the reigning scoring champion at this number.
Smith Jr. over 18.5 points and rebounds (-113): Smith hasn’t been the first, second, or third scoring option for the Rockets this year but he’s still averaging 11.5 points and 9.0 rebounds while playing north of 30 minutes a night.
The third-year power forward dropped 17 points and eight rebounds his last time out and I like him to keep the ball rolling tonight.
Last year, he torched the Mavericks repeatedly, averaging 19.3 points and 8.3 rebounds, going 4-0 against this line.
Picks made at 12:50 p.m. on 10/31/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.