The New York Jets host the Houston Texans for a Halloween edition of Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: New York’s season has been a horror show in its own right but the Jets should cover a hefty alternate spread at home. I’m also looking for Joe Mixon and Davante Adams to step up in the prop market.
Check out my Texans vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions for Week 9 below.
Texans vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Jets +7.5 + Adams over 4.5 receptions + Mixon over 80.5 rushing yards (+380)
Jets +7.5 (-435): Houston is a 2.5-point underdog with its top two receivers — Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs — out of the lineup.
So I’ll say this: If New York can’t cover this number it might as well tank and look forward to 2025.
The Jets are 2-6 but should have won last week and are 6-2 against a +7.5 spread. The only exceptions were a pair of road losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers.
C.J. Stroud has historically struggled on the road, with a 5-6 record and 90.5 passer rating (10-2 at home, 105.7 passer rating).
I expect Aaron Rodgers to keep the flies off New York for at least one more week.
Other parlay picks
Adams over 4.5 receptions (-159): The Rodgers-to-Adams connection hasn’t flourished yet but it’s not due to a lack of effort.
Adams has logged over 94% of snaps in both games as a Jet and ranks second in targets (15) in that span.
He’s gone under this mark in both games with four catches last week and three the week before that.
Houston’s secondary is elite and the team also ranks seventh in pressure rate, making this a tough matchup.
But Rodgers is one of the best at getting the ball out quickly and Adams has the chemistry to find open space and gobble up receptions.
Mixon over 80.5 rushing yards (-112): On Tuesday, I took the over on Mixon’s 79.5 rushing total as my TNF best bet. That line has moved by a yard but I still would play it up into the high 80s.
The veteran tailback has assumed bell-cow status on Houston, clearing 100 rushing yards in four of his five starts while logging 25-plus carries three times.
The only time he didn’t go over this mark was in Week 2 when he left early with an ankle sprain against the Chicago Bears.
The Jets don’t boast a great rush defence, ranking 21st in defensive EPA per rush while allowing the 10th-most rushing yards to tailbacks.
I don’t believe New York will blow out Houston (hence the massively teased-up spread) so the Texans’ game script should call for a heavy dose of Mixon.
Picks made at 2:37 p.m. on 10/30/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.