The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets meet for a Western Conference heavyweight showdown.
The pregame narrative: OKC is the West’s last unbeaten team and I can’t see that changing against a shorthanded Denver team tonight. Back the Thunder to cover an alternate spread alongside prop bets on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic.
Check out my Thunder vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 6.
Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions
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Parlay: Thunder -3.5 + Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists + Jokic over 11.5 rebounds (+295)
Thunder -3.5 (-190): OKC is dismantling teams right now.
The Thunder are a perfect 7-0 with a league-best +17.1 net rating. They’ve won each game by at least 12 points and began the season with a 15-point drumming of the Nuggets in Denver two weeks ago.
Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon were on the court then and are both out tonight.
Murray and Gordon were Denver’s second and fourth-ranked scorers from a year ago and that leaves the likes of Russell Westbrook and Christian Braun to pick up the slack.
Jokic is the best player on the planet but even he can’t do it all against a Thunder squad firing on all cylinders.
I expect OKC to comfortably win tonight.
SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists (-157): It’s very early but Gilgeous-Alexander is favoured to win the MVP after a red-hot start.
The Canadian superstar is averaging 25.7 points to pair with 6.9 assists, clearing this line in five of seven games.
He had eight helpers against Denver when these teams met a few weeks back and has logged nine assists in back-to-back games.
The Nuggets aren’t what they used to be defensively and sit a pedestrian 17th in defensive rating while allowing the second-most assists per game to point guards (11.3), according to Fantasy Pros.
As long as this isn’t a complete blowout, SGA should get enough run to clear this total.
Jokic over 11.5 rebounds (-225): The only hole to poke in the OKC’s game right now is its rebounding.
The Thunder had the third-worst rebounding rate last year (48.4%) and own the fourth-worst so far (47.7%). They will have help on the glass when Isaiah Hartenstein returns from injury but until then remain a prime fade candidate.
Jokic had 12 rebounds against OKC in October and has cleared this line in back-to-back games with 30 total boards in that span.
He’s played close to or over 40 minutes in each of Denver’s competitive games and has a notable size advantage against 208-pound Chet Holmgren.
NBA picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 11/06/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.