Category: NBA

Lakers vs. Bucks prop picks March 13: Bet on Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo to shine

Lakers vs. Bucks prop picks

The two biggest stars in Thursday’s Los Angeles Lakers vs. Milwaukee Bucks matchup have my attention.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is back in a high-scoring groove for the Lakers, and that should continue in tonight’s road matchup. For the home team, expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to have a big game as a rebounder.

Check out my Lakers vs. Bucks prop picks for March 13.

Lakers vs. Bucks prop picks

Best Bet: Doncic over 31.5 points (-118)

Remember when Donicic’s points prop was in the low 20s? Those days are over.

Just over a month ago, when Doncic returned from a six-week injury absence to debut for the Lakers, his prop markets were deflated.

But the five-time All-NBA point guard is back up to speed, and he’s got the best matchup possible on Thursday night.

Due in large part to Damian Lillard’s notoriously lacklustre defence, Milwaukee allows the most points per game to opposing PGs, per Betting Pros.

This will be Doncic’s first time facing the Bucks as a Laker, but he torched them plenty of times while playing for Dallas.

In five matchups against the Bucks since April 2022, Doncic cleared this point total four times while averaging 33.4 points.

Remember, LeBron James (groin) is out for the Lakers. That should put more of the scoring burden on Doncic’s shoulders.

Doncic had 26 field goal attempts on Monday in his first Laker game without LeBron, marking his highest shot total since November.

Key stat: Doncic has cashed this bet in two of his past three games and is averaging 29.7 PPG in his past six.

Quick pick

Giannis over 12.5 rebounds (-110): You can’t justifiably back many players at a rebounding milestone like this, but Giannis is one of the exceptions.

Coming off a 19-rebound performance, Giannis has cashed this bet in four of his past nine games.

He’s averaging 12.1 rebounds this season, so it’s not like this milestone is a typical day at the office, but it’s worth a play when the right matchup comes around.

  • The Lakers are missing three of their top five rebounders tonight, including LeBron and Jaxson Hayes (and it’s been a little while since they employed Anthony Davis, obviously).
  • Giannis had 35 rebounds in two matchups against the Lakers last season, cashing this bet both times.

Lakers vs. Bucks prop picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET 03/13/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 13: Count on big nights from Jimmy Butler, Coby White and Trey Murphy

NBA prop bets

Golden State Warriors star Jimmy Butler headlines Thursday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I like Butler to fill the stat sheet against the Sacramento Kings and am adding plays on Coby White and Trey Murphy.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 13.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Butler over 30.5 PRA (-127)

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The Warriors are 12-2 since acquiring Butler and sport the No. 5 offence in the NBA over that stretch.

They should have a great offensive night against the Kings, who are 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating since the start of February and are among the bottom 10 in both field goal and 3-point percentage. 

The latter area has been a particular concern all year. Sacramento’s defence ranks last in 3PT% and allows more triples per game than all but two teams.

Golden State is sure to be firing from long range, particularly Steph Curry, which will help Butler stack up some easy assists as one of the team’s top distributors.

Even without a 3-point shot himself, Butler should contribute as a scorer. 

  • Over the last 30 days, Sacramento has allowed the fifth-most PPG to the small forward position (per Betting Pros).
  • Butler is 7-6 vs. this line with the Warriors and had an efficient 17/7/3 outing when Golden State faced the Kings shortly after the trade.

He breezed past this number in an earlier matchup vs. Sacramento as a member of the Miami Heat (Nov. 4).

Key stat: Butler has cleared this line in three straight games, averaging 36.0 PRA.

Best NBA picks

White over 21.5 points (-125): White is taking more than 20 shots a game this month with 10 of them coming from long range. 

He’s doing it on 35.4 minutes a night, averaging 29 PPG. 

That’s propped up by a 44-point outburst against the Orlando Magic, but he’s cleared this line in three of his other four March games.

The Chicago Bulls guard is 8-8 vs. this number since Feb. 1, landing on 21 points once and 20 twice. An extra free throw or field goal in those games would make this pick look like a slam dunk.

  • White is streaky but is averaging 23.4 points in 10 games out of the break and has big upside from the perimeter.
  • The Brooklyn Nets are 25th in the NBA in opponent 3PT%.
  • White nailed five triples when he faced Brooklyn in November, finishing with 21 points.

Murphy over 2.5 threes (-134): We’re used to seeing Murphy’s 3-point line set at 3.5 but a down stretch gives us a chance to buy in at a lighter number. And I’m all for it.

  • The sharpshooting wing is averaging career highs of 3.1 made threes and 8.5 attempts per game.
  • Murphy has cleared this line in 29 of 50 games.
  • Even in his worst shooting month from distance, Murphy has cleared this at a 50% rate.

Orlando has been strong on the perimeter this season but vulnerable more recently, ranking 25th in opponent 3PT% since Feb. 1.

NBA prop picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET on 03/13/2025.

Magic vs. Pelicans SGP predictions March 13: Take the under but ride with Trey Murphy

Magic vs. Pelicans predictions

The slumping Orlando Magic continue a five-game road trip on Thursday night against the New Orleans Pelicans.

The pregame narrative: Orlando’s issues are on the offensive side, which is why I like the under on an alt total for tonight’s matchup. I’m also riding with Trey Murphy and Wendell Carter Jr. on the prop market.

Check out my Magic vs. Pelicans SGP predictions for March 13.

Magic vs. Pelicans predictions

Parlay: Under 222.5 points | Murphy over 19.5 points | Carter 8+ rebounds (+310)

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Under 222.5 points (-205): Unders haven’t been commonplace for New Orleans this season, which has a lot to do with the Pelicans owning the worst defensive rating in the league. But Orlando is the perfect team to help buck that trend.

  • Orlando has the No. 2 defensive rating in the NBA.
  • The Magic play at the second-slowest pace (96.63 possessions/game).
  • Orlando has the No. 28 offensive rating (New Orleans is No. 25).

Unders are 12-2 this season when Orlando is a road favourite. Look for the Magic to control the pace in tonight’s game.

New Orleans has gone under this total in four of its past five home games. Also, when the Pelicans last played the Magic in November, they combined for just 203 total points.

NBA SGP legs

Murphy over 19.5 points (-124): Orlando is a daunting matchup for pretty much any opposing scorer, but Murphy’s recent production tells me he can reach the 20-point milestone.

  • So far this month, Murphy has 20+ points in 4 of 6 games (and he had 19 points in one of the outliers).
  • Since Jan. 29, Murphy is averaging 22.7 PPG and has cleared this total in 12 of 19.

Murphy is the primary 3-point shooter for the Pelicans, averaging 8.5 attempts from deep.

Orlando allows the fifth-highest 3-point percentage (37.0%), so he could have a big night if he gets enough shots up.

Carter 8+ rebounds (-265): Carter has bounced in and out of the Magic’s starting lineup this year. He should be back in the starting five tonight, and that means he’ll have a nice opportunity as a rebounder.

  • New Orleans allows the most rebounds per game to opposing centres (17.44), per Betting Pros.
  • Carter has 8+ rebounds in 12 of 19 games as a starter.

All in all, Carter is averaging 7.5 rebounds this season. But that average is up to 9.1 RPG since he returned to the starting lineup 10 games ago, and I think that trend is more telling.

Magic vs. Pelicans predictions made at 10:20 a.m. ET 03/13/2025.

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Kings vs. Warriors SGP predictions March 13: Back Steph Curry and DeMar DeRozan at +295

Kings vs. Warriors predictions

The Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings wrap up Thursday’s five-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Golden State is 9-1 since the All-Star break and I want to get in on the action by teasing the home favourites down a few points. Prop bets on Steph Curry and DeMar DeRozan round out this wager.

Check out my Kings vs. Warriors SGP predictions for March 13.

Kings vs. Warriors predictions

Parlay: Warriors -3.5 | Curry over 26.5 points | DeRozan over 19.5 points (+295)

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Warriors -3.5 (-225): After a slow start to the season, I was one of many who thought Golden State’s reign of terror was over. But you just can’t bury a team with Curry at the helm.

The Warriors were active at the trade deadline, acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat, and that’s paid immediate dividends. Check out how the Dubs have done since the trade on Feb. 7:

  • 12-2 record (9-5 ATS)
  • +10.4 net rating (4th in NBA)
  • 108.9 defensive rating (3rd in NBA)

Golden State has covered a -3.5 spread in 11 of those victories, including a 132-108 rout of the Kings on the road.

Sacramento is 5-5 in its last 10 but I’m not going to put much stock into its wins (Spurs, Mavericks, Jazz, Hornets, Rockets). Four of those five losses were by six-plus points.

NBA SGP legs

Curry over 26.5 points (-120): When Curry gets hot, look out.

The future Hall of Famer has been on fire since the All-Star break, averaging 29.5 points on 51.4/43.9/96.7 shooting splits.

He’s gone over 26.5 points in five of his last seven games, scoring 40 against the Brooklyn Nets and 52 against the Orlando Magic.

Sacramento has held point guards in check this season but Curry has performed well against his intrastate rival over the last few years, going 10-5 against this line in his last 15 games.

DeRozan over 19.5 points (-182): DeRozan lives right around this number.

  • DeRozan is averaging 22.1 points.
  • He’s scored 18+ points in 13 of his last 15 games.
  • In that span, he’s scored 20+ points 10 times.

Golden State has the second-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (46.4%), and DeRozan ranks in the 100th percentile for mid-range shot frequency (72%), per Cleaning the Glass.

He scored 34 points against the Warriors on Feb. 21 and has cleared this mark in 36 of 59 games (61.0%) on the season.

Kings vs. Warriors predictions made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 03/13/2025.

Lakers vs. Bucks prop picks March 13: Bet on Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo to shine

Lakers vs. Bucks prop picks

The two biggest stars in Thursday’s Los Angeles Lakers vs. Milwaukee Bucks matchup have my attention.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is back in a high-scoring groove for the Lakers, and that should continue in tonight’s road matchup. For the home team, expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to have a big game as a rebounder.

Check out my Lakers vs. Bucks prop picks for March 13.

Lakers vs. Bucks prop picks

Best Bet: Doncic over 31.5 points (-118)

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Remember when Donicic’s points prop was in the low 20s? Those days are over.

Just over a month ago, when Doncic returned from a six-week injury absence to debut for the Lakers, his prop markets were deflated.

But the five-time All-NBA point guard is back up to speed, and he’s got the best matchup possible on Thursday night.

Due in large part to Damian Lillard’s notoriously lacklustre defence, Milwaukee allows the most points per game to opposing PGs, per Betting Pros.

This will be Doncic’s first time facing the Bucks as a Laker, but he torched them plenty of times while playing for Dallas.

In five matchups against the Bucks since April 2022, Doncic cleared this point total four times while averaging 33.4 points.

Remember, LeBron James (groin) is out for the Lakers. That should put more of the scoring burden on Doncic’s shoulders.

Doncic had 26 field goal attempts on Monday in his first Laker game without LeBron, marking his highest shot total since November.

Key stat: Doncic has cashed this bet in two of his past three games and is averaging 29.7 PPG in his past six.

Quick pick

Giannis 14+ rebounds (+125): You can’t justifiably back many players at a rebounding milestone like this, but Giannis is one of the exceptions.

Coming off a 19-rebound performance, Giannis has cashed this bet in four of his past nine games.

He’s averaging 12.1 rebounds this season, so it’s not like this milestone is a typical day at the office, but it’s worth a play when the right matchup comes around.

  • The Lakers are missing three of their top five rebounders tonight, including LeBron and Jaxson Hayes (and it’s been a little while since they employed Anthony Davis, obviously).
  • Giannis had 35 rebounds in two matchups against the Lakers last season, cashing this bet both times.

Lakers vs. Bucks prop picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET 03/13/2025.

76ers vs. Raptors SGP predictions March 12: Bet on Jamal Shead and Quentin Grimes at +350

76ers vs. Raptors predictions

Two tanking teams meet at Scotiabank Arena tonight when the Toronto Raptors host the Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Most of the stars are sidelined and both GMs will be rooting for a loss in the press box. But there’s still value to be had in this dumpster-fire of a contest, and I’ve built out a three-leg wager featuring Quentin Grimes and Jamal Shead.

Check out my 76ers vs. Raptors SGP predictions for March 12.

76ers vs. Raptors predictions

Parlay: Sixers +9.5 | Grimes 20+ points | Shead 2+ threes (+350)

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Sixers +9.5 (-286): Here is a list of players out on Wednesday:

  • RJ Barrett
  • Immanuel Quickley
  • Gradey Dick
  • Jakobe Walter
  • Joel Embiid
  • Tyrese Maxey
  • Paul George

I don’t feel confident backing either team to win with their worst foot forward but do like banking a boatload of points with the road team.

Darko Rajakovic has made a point of resting his starters down the stretch and I don’t expect Jakob Poeltl or Scottie Barnes — who might miss the game with a finger injury — to get meaningful minutes in crunch time.

Toronto has only covered a -9.5 spread twice in its last 18 games and one of those contests was against the bottom-feeding Washington Wizards.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has covered this line in 15 of its last 20, including once against Toronto.

NBA SGP legs

Grimes 20+ points (-107): Grimes isn’t a household name by any stretch but he’s quietly become a productive player with the 76ers.

The 24-year-old was acquired at the deadline for Caleb Martin and is averaging 20.4 points since he entered the starting lineup on Feb. 12.

And this month, we’ve seen that Grimes can explode as a scorer:

  • 44 points vs. Warriors
  • 35 points vs. Hawks
  • 30 points vs. Timberwolves
  • 25 points vs. Jazz

Grimes took a career-high 25 shots his last time out vs. Atlanta and should breeze by this total if his volume is remotely similar. And with all of Philadelphia’s injuries, it should be.

Shead 2+ threes (-114): This should be a good spot for Shead to show us what he’s made of.

The 2024 second-round pick hasn’t been asked to do much this year but is now thrust into a starting role, and has a great matchup.

Philadelphia has the third-worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.1%) and gives up the most 3s per game to opposing point guards (3.53), per Fantasy Pros.

Shead has canned at least one triple in 14 of 18 games where he’s played 20-plus minutes. He should be looking to attack Philly from beyond the arc tonight.

76ers vs. Raptors predictions made at 2:30 p.m. ET on 03/12/2025.

Knicks vs. Trail Blazers SGP predictions March 12: Back New York and Anunoby on road in +325 play

Knicks vs. Trail Blazers predictions

This New York Knicks and Portland Trail Blazers close out the NBA’s nine-game slate at Moda Center on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: New York is a slim road favourite and I love the team to cover a small spread in this +325 play. Legs on Anfernee Simons and OG Anunoby round out this same-game parlay recommendation.

Check out my Knicks vs. Trail Blazers SGP predictions for March 12.

Knicks vs. Trail Blazers predictions

Parlay: Knicks -3.5 | Simons 3+ threes | Anunoby 3+ threes (+325)

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Knicks -3.5 (-120): New York is on the road and without star point guard Jalen Brunson but this line still feels light.

The Knicks have 13 more wins than Portland, have been strong on the road (20-12), and sport the sixth-best net rating in the NBA (Portland ranks No. 23).

Portland has been one of the strongest teams in the NBA against the spread and significantly better than New York. But as a bottom-10 team, the Blazers are often given more than 3.5 points.

The Blazers are going to be without a couple of key bodies tonight while the Knicks are in good shape outside of Brunson.

Portland has dropped four straight, losing by double digits in three of them.

While the Blazers are 5-5 straight up over their last 10, those wins came against five of the seven worst teams in the NBA.

NBA SGP legs

Simons 3+ threes (-315): The Blazers guard is cooking.

In six games this month, Simons is averaging 28.5 points on 22.2 attempts from the field. He’s torched everyone he’s played outside of the Western Conference-best Oklahoma City Thunder.

  • March 10: 32 pts, 6 threes
  • March 9: 34 points, 4 threes
  • March 7: 14 points, 1 three
  • March 5: 30 points, 3 threes
  • March 3: 34 points, 6 threes
  • March 2: 27 points, 4 threes

Simons took at least 10 three-point attempts in the five games he hit this line.

He’s averaging 3.1 per game this season and the Knicks rank second-last in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Anunoby over 16.5 points (-129): Thanks to his outside work, Anunoby has cleared this line in five of his last six games.

Anunoby has drilled three-plus 3-pointers in all but one of those contests. He’s averaging 8.8 attempts from long range in March, by far his highest output of any month this season.

Some more things to like about the way Anunoby is trending:

  • 15+ FGA in 7 straight
  • 40+ mins in 3 of 5 March games
  • 13-12 vs. this line in last 25

He’s 13-20 in his other 33 games.

Tom Thibodeau rides his starters hard and Brunson’s absence should only help Anunoby stay on the court vs. Portland, which has allowed more than 125 points in five of its last eight losses.

Knicks vs. Trail Blazers predictions made at 11:20 a.m. ET 03/12/2025.

Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks March 12: Back Chet Holmgren, fade Jayson Tatum

Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks

The Boston Celtics host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a potential NBA Finals preview on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Boston and OKC are tied with the shortest odds to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy (+175) and the former is a 2.5-point favourites as of 11:30 a.m. Look for Chet Holmgren to provide secondary scoring and fade Jayson Tatum’s assist total.

Check out my Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks for March 12.

Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks

Best Bet: Holmgren over 15.5 points (-130)

This line asks a lot out of Holmgren, who’s slumping and averaging just 14.6 PPG this season.

The third-year forward is 0-4 against this line in his last four games, shooting 40.0% from the field and 1-of-14 from deep.

But there are a few reasons why I believe he’s due for a turnaround.

First off, some positive regression is bound to happen. Holmgren cleared this line in three straight games before his slump while shooting 6-of-12 from deep.

More importantly, though, is the absence of Jalen Williams. The forward is second to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in minutes (32.6), points (21.3) and field-goal attempts (16.9) per game.

  • Holmgren is 11-7 against this line when playing 20-plus minutes without Williams, per Stat Muse.
  • In the seven games he fell short, he had either 14 or 15 points five times.

Boston is great at containing power forwards but I like this play from a volume standpoint alone.

Key stat: Excluding a contest where he left after five minutes with an injury, Holmgren has scored 19, 20 and 29 points in his last three games without Williams.

Quick pick

Tatum under 6.5 assists (-130): I don’t love these odds but believe the juice is worth the squeeze for Tatum on Wednesday.

OKC owns the league’s best defensive rating (106.1) and allows the fourth-fewest assists per game (24.4).

The Thunder do a particularly strong job at limiting power forwards in the assists department, per Fantasy Pros:

  • Third-fewest APG on the season (3.79)
  • Seventh-fewest APG in the last 30 days (3.93)

Tatum averages 5.8 helpers a night and has fallen under this mark in 35 of 60 starts (58.3%).

In 14 career starts against OKC, Tatum has fallen under this mark 13 times. He has three or fewer assists in 10 of those games.

Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 03/12/2025.

Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks March 12: Back Chet Holmgren, fade Jayson Tatum

Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks

The Boston Celtics host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a potential NBA Finals preview on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Boston and OKC are tied with the shortest odds to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy (+175) and the former is a 2-point favourite as of 10:45 a.m. Look for Chet Holmgren to provide secondary scoring and fade Jayson Tatum‘s assist total.

Check out my Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks for March 12.

Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks

Best Bet: Holmgren over 15.5 points (-105)

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This line asks a lot out of Holmgren, who’s slumping and averaging just 14.6 PPG this season.

The third-year forward is 0-4 against this line in his last four games, shooting 40.0% from the field and 1-of-14 from deep.

But there are a few reasons why I believe he’s due for a turnaround.

First off, some positive regression is bound to happen. Holmgren cleared this line in three straight games before his slump while shooting 6-of-12 from deep.

More importantly, though, is the absence of Jalen Williams. The forward is second to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in minutes (32.6), points (21.3) and field-goal attempts (16.9) per game.

  • Holmgren is 11-7 against this line when playing 20-plus minutes without Williams, per Stat Muse.
  • In the seven games he fell short, he had either 14 or 15 points five times.

Boston is great at containing power forwards but I like this play from a volume standpoint alone.

Key stat: Excluding a contest where he left after five minutes with an injury, Holmgren has scored 19, 20 and 29 points in his last three games without Williams.

Quick pick

Tatum under 6.5 assists (-148): I don’t love these odds but believe the juice is worth the squeeze for Tatum on Wednesday.

OKC owns the league’s best defensive rating (106.1) and allows the fourth-fewest assists per game (24.4).

The Thunder do a particularly strong job at limiting power forwards in the assists department, per Fantasy Pros:

  • Third-fewest APG on the season (3.79)
  • Seventh-fewest APG in the last 30 days (3.93)

Tatum averages 5.8 helpers a night and has fallen under this mark in 35 of 60 starts (58.3%).

In 14 career starts against OKC, Tatum has fallen under this mark 13 times. He has three or fewer assists in 10 of those games.

Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks made at 10:55 a.m. ET 03/12/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 12: Expect big nights from stars Ja Morant, Kevin Durant and Tyler Herro

NBA prop bets

Ja Morant and Kevin Durant headline tonight’s top prop picks for Wednesday’s nine-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Both Western Conference stars are playing high-end ball and I expect that to continue. I also have a play on Miami Heat sharpshooter Tyler Herro.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 12.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Morant over 26.5 points (-108)

This is a hefty number but Morant is on fire ahead of tonight’s matchup. 

Morant has been slowed by injuries once again this season, and it shows in his scoring average: 21.7 points per game. 

But he sure looks healthy now. Since February, Morant has dropped 24.5 PPG.

  • Morant has scored 25-plus points eight times in those 13 contests, including five of his last six. 
  • Over those six games, the point guard has taken 20+ shots five times. 

Everything points to another big scoring night. March has so far been Morant’s top month for scoring, minutes played and shot volume. 

And he gets a juicy matchup against the Utah Jazz, who are last in the Western Conference and rank 29th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Key stat: Utah allows the third-most points to point guards, per Betting Pros.

Best NBA picks

Durant over 30.5 points and rebounds (-130): We need 31 combined points and rebounds from Durant tonight, a number he has been smashing. 

  • Durant is averaging 29.0 points and 8.0 rebounds in five March games on 40.1 minutes a night.
  • He’s cleared this line in four of those games — landing on 30 in the outlier — and did it on points alone his last time out (35 points vs. Grizzlies). 
  • The veteran is 7-4 against this line since the All-Star Game.

Durant dropped 37 points and five rebounds in the game before the break against the Houston Rockets, who he sees tonight. 

The Phoenix Suns are desperate for wins in their attempt to get into the play-in round and will ride their leading scorer as long as they’re in the mix.

Herro over 21.5 points (-125): This isn’t a great matchup for Herro on the surface but he’ll get the Los Angeles Clippers on a back-to-back.

Los Angeles defends guards well, ranks fourth in defensive rating, and limits opponents from the outside.

But the Heat will have the rest advantage and the Clippers are sure to be undermanned. Kawhi Leonard will almost certainly sit.

Herro is slumping in what’s been a career year but this is still a light line and not a number we’re able to get him at often.

Despite a slow March (20.4 PPG), Herro has notched 21-plus points in four of five games.

The long-range assassin is 6-4 against this line since the ASG and can get dangerous from deep in a hurry, giving him big scoring upside every night.

NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 03/12/2025.