The Boston Celtics host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a potential NBA Finals preview on Wednesday night.
The pregame narrative: Boston and OKC are tied with the shortest odds to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy (+175) and the former is a 2.5-point favourites as of 11:30 a.m. Look for Chet Holmgren to provide secondary scoring and fade Jayson Tatum’s assist total.
Check out my Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks for March 12.
Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks
Best Bet: Holmgren over 15.5 points (-130)
This line asks a lot out of Holmgren, who’s slumping and averaging just 14.6 PPG this season.
The third-year forward is 0-4 against this line in his last four games, shooting 40.0% from the field and 1-of-14 from deep.
But there are a few reasons why I believe he’s due for a turnaround.
First off, some positive regression is bound to happen. Holmgren cleared this line in three straight games before his slump while shooting 6-of-12 from deep.
More importantly, though, is the absence of Jalen Williams. The forward is second to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in minutes (32.6), points (21.3) and field-goal attempts (16.9) per game.
- Holmgren is 11-7 against this line when playing 20-plus minutes without Williams, per Stat Muse.
- In the seven games he fell short, he had either 14 or 15 points five times.
Boston is great at containing power forwards but I like this play from a volume standpoint alone.
Key stat: Excluding a contest where he left after five minutes with an injury, Holmgren has scored 19, 20 and 29 points in his last three games without Williams.
Quick pick
Tatum under 6.5 assists (-130): I don’t love these odds but believe the juice is worth the squeeze for Tatum on Wednesday.
OKC owns the league’s best defensive rating (106.1) and allows the fourth-fewest assists per game (24.4).
The Thunder do a particularly strong job at limiting power forwards in the assists department, per Fantasy Pros:
- Third-fewest APG on the season (3.79)
- Seventh-fewest APG in the last 30 days (3.93)
Tatum averages 5.8 helpers a night and has fallen under this mark in 35 of 60 starts (58.3%).
In 14 career starts against OKC, Tatum has fallen under this mark 13 times. He has three or fewer assists in 10 of those games.
Thunder vs. Celtics prop picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 03/12/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.