The slumping Orlando Magic continue a five-game road trip on Thursday night against the New Orleans Pelicans.
The pregame narrative: Orlando’s issues are on the offensive side, which is why I like the under on an alt total for tonight’s matchup. I’m also riding with Trey Murphy and Wendell Carter Jr. on the prop market.
Check out my Magic vs. Pelicans SGP predictions for March 13.
Magic vs. Pelicans predictions
Parlay: Under 222.5 points | Murphy over 19.5 points | Carter 8+ rebounds (+310)
Under 222.5 points (-205): Unders haven’t been commonplace for New Orleans this season, which has a lot to do with the Pelicans owning the worst defensive rating in the league. But Orlando is the perfect team to help buck that trend.
- Orlando has the No. 2 defensive rating in the NBA.
- The Magic play at the second-slowest pace (96.63 possessions/game).
- Orlando has the No. 28 offensive rating (New Orleans is No. 25).
Unders are 12-2 this season when Orlando is a road favourite. Look for the Magic to control the pace in tonight’s game.
New Orleans has gone under this total in four of its past five home games. Also, when the Pelicans last played the Magic in November, they combined for just 203 total points.
NBA SGP legs
Murphy over 19.5 points (-124): Orlando is a daunting matchup for pretty much any opposing scorer, but Murphy’s recent production tells me he can reach the 20-point milestone.
- So far this month, Murphy has 20+ points in 4 of 6 games (and he had 19 points in one of the outliers).
- Since Jan. 29, Murphy is averaging 22.7 PPG and has cleared this total in 12 of 19.
Murphy is the primary 3-point shooter for the Pelicans, averaging 8.5 attempts from deep.
Orlando allows the fifth-highest 3-point percentage (37.0%), so he could have a big night if he gets enough shots up.
Carter 8+ rebounds (-265): Carter has bounced in and out of the Magic’s starting lineup this year. He should be back in the starting five tonight, and that means he’ll have a nice opportunity as a rebounder.
- New Orleans allows the most rebounds per game to opposing centres (17.44), per Betting Pros.
- Carter has 8+ rebounds in 12 of 19 games as a starter.
All in all, Carter is averaging 7.5 rebounds this season. But that average is up to 9.1 RPG since he returned to the starting lineup 10 games ago, and I think that trend is more telling.
Magic vs. Pelicans predictions made at 10:20 a.m. ET 03/13/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.