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Celtics vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions Jan. 20: Bet on Curry, Porzingis in +275 SGP

In the middle of the NBA’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day slate, the Golden State Warriors host the Boston Celtics in a marquee matchup.

The pregame narrative: Golden State doesn’t appear to be a title contender like Boston is, but the Warriors should be able to cover a double-digit underdog spread at home on Monday. My +275 SGP also has prop bets on Steph Curry and Kristaps Porzingis.

Check out my Celtics vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 20.

Celtics vs. Warriors predictions

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Parlay: Warriors +13.5 + Curry 6+ assists + Porzingis 2+ threes (+275)

Warriors +13.5 (-186): Since their NBA Finals showdown in 2022, the Warriors and Celtics have met five times. Golden State has been the underdog each time, but it hasn’t always played like one.

Dating back to the start of the 2022-23 season, Golden State is 4-1 ATS against Boston with three outright wins as an underdog.

All three underdog wins came at Chase Center, which is where tonight’s matchup will be played.

I’m not calling for an upset, but Golden State has the chops to at least dodge a blowout loss. The Dubs have covered this number in 35 of 41 games this year (85.4%), and they’re 10-7 ATS as underdogs.

Boston, meanwhile, is just 16-23-1 ATS as a favourite and has failed to cover this number in seven of its past nine.

Curry (ankle) is questionable for the Warriors, but that doesn’t deter me, either. Golden State is 5-3 SU without him this year, covering this number in all eight games.

SGP legs

Curry 6+ assists (-165): Speaking of Curry, I hope he suits and can continue dishing the rock effectively against the Celtics.

Curry as 6+ assists in four straight games.

He’s averaging 6.2 APG this season.

Against the Celtics, Curry has 6+ assists in 4/5 games since Dec. 10, 2022.

The scoring numbers are starting to tick up again for Curry, but that hasn’t hurt his ability to make effective passes.

This is a very attainable line for a guy whose average sits above this line — especially considering he dropped nine dimes in Boston back on Nov. 6.

Porzingis 2+ threes (-159): There’s a bit too much juice for me to want to bet this straight up, but Porzingis’ 3s prop is a personal favourite of mine in the parlay world right now.

No team is more committed to shooting more 3s than the Celtics, who attempt a league-high 49.1 per night (the Bulls are second at 42.8). Porzingis isn’t as much of a volume shooter as some, but he tends to get plenty of looks.

5+ attempted threes in 14/18 games
2+ made threes in 13/18 games
47.7 3PT% in his past eight games

Porzingis has been reliable against this line all season, and he nearly doubles the price on this SGP. That’s good enough for me to buy in.

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. on 01/20/24.

Nets vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions Jan. 19: Expect Claxton and Russell to show up in losing effort

The Oklahoma City Thunder are massive home favourites over the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: I’m shaving 5.5 points off OKC’s standard -17.5 line tonight. Prop bets on two Brooklyn Nets — Nic Claxton and D’Angelo Russell — round out this +390 wager.

Check out my Nets vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 19.

Nets vs. Thunder predictions

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Parlay: Thunder -12 + Claxton over 7.5 rebounds + Russell over 1.5 threes (+320)

Thunder -12 (-225): This game has blowout written all over it.

OKC is a juggernaut with a laser focus on the Larry O’Brien Trophy while Brooklyn is hoping for a bit of luck in this year’s draft lottery.

Take a look at how impressive the Thunder have been so far:

34-6 record
13-5-1 ATS record a home favourite
+12.5 net rating (best in the NBA)

Brooklyn owns a fantastic 15-8-1 ATS record as a road underdog, so I’m trimming a few points off the spread. But the Nets are 25th in net rating and are on the last leg of a six-game West Coast road trip that’s gone terribly.

Fatigue should set in for a team that’s grossly outmatched.

SGP legs

Claxton over 7.5 rebounds (-103): The one flaw in OKC’s game is its rebounding. Isaiah Hartenstein was acquired to fix that problem but is out with an injury tonight.

The big man also missed the first 15 games of the season with an injury. In that span, the Thunder ranked dead last in rebounding rate (46.3%).

Claxton doesn’t have the biggest frame but at 6-foot-11 he’s a natural rebounder.

The sixth-year center is averaging 7.5 rebounds per game and is playing 28.0 minutes a night in January, which is the highest of any month this season.

He’s primed to have an above-average performance in a great matchup.

Russell over 1.5 threes (-230): Russell was acquired in a trade from the Los Angeles Lakers to start 2025 and is starting to find his stroke after a few games.

He’s shooting 9-for-18 from deep over his last three games with the Nets, clearing this total twice.

He most recently cashed five threes against the Lakers in a revenge game of sorts.

The Thunder own an elite perimeter defence but this should be an attainable number if Russell sticks to his 5.8 three-point attempts per game.

Picks made at 11:24 a.m. on 01/19/24.

Lakers vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 19: Back Reaves and Leonard at +320

The Battle of Los Angeles is renewed when the Clippers host the Lakers in primetime on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: The Clippers have dominated this fixture in recent years and have Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup. I’m backing them to win, Kawhi to score, and Austin Reaves to stuff the stat sheet in this +320 wager.

Check out my Lakers vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 19.

Lakers vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers moneyline + Leonard over 14.5 points + Reaves over 28.5 PRA (+320)

Clippers moneyline (-195): A trio of Clippers — James Harden, Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac — are listed as questionable. But each played on Thursday and the -4.5 line gives me confidence they’ll suit up tonight.

Still, it’s something worth monitoring.

The Clips have exceeded expectations this year and have thrived at the freshly built Intuit Dome. L.A. is 14-6 straight up at home and 9-2 ATS as a home favourite.

Shaving off a few points on the spread against a struggling Lakers squad makes sense to me.

The Clippers have also won seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams.

SGP legs

Leonard over 14.5 points (-215): Leonard is being treated with kid gloves right now, which makes sense considering his injury history.

He’s played no more than 24 minutes a night since making his season debut on Jan. 4 but is coming off a 24-point outing (on 8-of-11 shooting) against the Brooklyn Nets.

Kawhi has seen a minutes uptick in each game back so I’m hoping he gets into the high 20s tonight. But even if he doesn’t, this line should be attainable.

Leonard averaged 26.0 PPG against the Lakers last year on 53.7% shooting.

Reaves over 28.5 PRA (-129): Reaves is quickly becoming a special player.

The fourth-year shooting guard is coming off a 38-point night against the Brooklyn Nets, showing his ceiling as a scorer.

He’s averaging a career-best 18.5 PPG while also posting highs in rebounds (4.3) and assists (6.1).

That nets out to a 28.9 PRA which is right around this number. However, a slow start to the season is weighing that average down.

Reaves is averaging 20.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 7.1 assists (33.1 PRA) since returning from an injury on Dec. 12.

Picks made at 11:24 a.m. on 01/19/24.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 19: Back Monk and Maxey on Sunday

Malik Monk and Tyrese Maxey headline Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The Sacramento Kings are rolling with a new head coach and Monk has been at the forefront of their success. I expect him to fill the basket in a plus matchup and am also Tyrese Maxey against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 19.

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Best bet: Monk over 18.5 points (-134)

Sacramento is firing on all cylinders under Doug Christie and I want in.

The Kings are 8-2 since Christie took over for Mike Brown on Dec. 27.
In that span, they rank fourth in offensive rating (118.9) and eighth in pace (100.75 possessions per 48 minutes).

Monk has been a steady contributor all season and has hit another gear this month. He’s putting up 23.7 PPG in January after averaging just north of 16.0 PPG the two months prior.

Has Christie unlocked something in the eighth-year guard? We’ll need a larger sample size to make that declaration. But Monk is shooting the ball more frequently and more accurately, which is good enough for me.

And tonight he gets to play a Washington Wizards team which has gotten torched by guards all season.

The Wizards allow the most points per game to point guards and the fourth-most points per game to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Monk has scored 20+ points in six of seven games this month.

Quick picks

Maxey over 29.5 points (-112): Surprise, surprise: Joel Embiid is back on the injured list.

That’s bad news for the Philadelphia 76ers but good news if you want to back Maxey. The Sixers point guard has been humming over his last six games, averaging 30.0 PPG and clearing this line five times.

He hasn’t been the most efficient but is taking a ton of shots and gets a great matchup.

The Milwaukee Bucks have consistently struggled to defend guards since acquiring Damian Lillard. They’re allowing the fourth most points per game to PGs this season.

Picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 01/19/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 19: Back Monk, Wembanyama, Maxey on Sunday

Malik Monk and Victor Wembanyama headline Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The Sacramento Kings are rolling with a new head coach and Monk has been at the forefront of their success. I expect him to fill the basket in a plus matchup and am also backing Wembanyama to continue wreaking havoc on defence.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 19.

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Best bet: Monk over 19.5 points (-118)

Sacramento is firing on all cylinders under Doug Christie and I want in.

The Kings are 8-2 since Christie took over for Mike Brown on Dec. 27.
In that span, they rank fourth in offensive rating (118.9) and eighth in pace (100.75 possessions per 48 minutes).

Monk has been a steady contributor all season and has hit another gear this month. He’s putting up 23.7 PPG in January after averaging just north of 16.0 PPG the two months prior.

Has Christie unlocked something in the eighth-year guard? We’ll need a larger sample size to make that declaration. But Monk is shooting the ball more frequently and more accurately, which is good enough for me.

And tonight he gets to play a Washington Wizards team which has gotten torched by guards all season.

The Wizards allow the most points per game to point guards and the fourth-most points per game to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Monk has scored 20+ points in six of seven games this month.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 4.5 steals and blocks (-117): Wembanyama’s scoring has plummeted this month but that hasn’t slowed him on the defensive end.

The 7-foot-4 phenom is living up to his alien moniker with a ridiculous 6.1 “stocks” (1.4 steals, 4.7 blocks) per night in January.

Wemby has cleared this total in six straight games and has 19 stocks (five steals, 14 blocks) in his last two outings.

This isn’t a great matchup. The Heat don’t turn the ball over much and give up the 11th-fewest blocks per game to centers. But I’ll go ahead and call Wembaynama’s defence matchup-proof.

Maxey over 27.5 points (-125): Surprise, surprise: Joel Embiid is back on the injured list.

That’s bad news for the Philadelphia 76ers but good news if you want to back Maxey. The Sixers point guard has been humming over his last six games, averaging 30.0 PPG and clearing this line each time.

He hasn’t been the most efficient but is taking a ton of shots and gets a great matchup.

The Milwaukee Bucks have consistently struggled to defend guards since acquiring Damian Lillard. They’re allowing the fourth most points per game to PGs this season.

Picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 01/19/2025.

Rockets vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 18: Back VanVleet, Sengun at +350

The Houston Rockets are heavy favourites over the Portland Trail Blazers in Saturday’s NBA nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Portland is a bad team but has a respectable ATS record as a home underdog. I’ll tease the Blazers up a few points while also backing Fred VanVleet and Alperen Sengun to produce.

Check out my Rockets vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 18.

Rockets vs. Trail Blazers predictions

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Parlay: Trail Blazers +16.5 + VanVleet over 2.5 threes + Sengun over 9.5 rebounds (+350)

Trail Blazers +16.5 (-220): Portland (13-27) is a bottom-feeder while Houston (27-13) sits second in the Western Conference.

The Rockets should win this game, no doubt, but I think this is enough cushion to feel safe with a young Blazers squad.

Portland is 9-7 ATS as a home underdog, losing those games by an average of 7.7 points.
The Blazers have lost three straight games by 20+ points but covered this number in 7/8 prior, winning four of those games outright.
Since Damian Lillard was traded, Portland is 4-2 against this number vs. Houston.

Houston has a stellar road record but has also only covered this number twice in its last 10 games. I expect a close game as the Rockets wrap up a three-game West-Coast road trip.

SGP legs

VanVleet over 2.5 threes (-118): One of the biggest issues with Portland is its perimeter defence. The squad allows the seventh-most 3s per game (14.0) at the third-highest rate (37.9%).

VanVleet has struggled from deep this season — owning a 32.9 3PT% — but is still attempting 7.6 threes per game.

He missed the Rockets’ last game for personal reasons but is not listed on today’s injury report. A little extra rest for the veteran shouldn’t hurt.

Also, FVV is shooting above 40.0% from deep in three straight games, clearing this line twice. I’m keen on playing this as a standalone wager.

Sengun over 9.5 rebounds (-177): Houston leads the league in rebounding rate and a lot of that has to do with Sengun.

The Turkish phenom is corralling 10.4 boards per night and has cleared this number in three of his last five games.

He has a plus matchup against Portland, which ranks 24th in rebounding rate (48.9%) and 29th in defensive rebound rate (67.2%).

Jerami Grant is questionable and Donovan Clingan is out tonight for the Blazers, which takes some size out of their lineup. Sengun should have plenty of opportunities to get to the double-digit mark.

Picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET 01/18/2025

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 18: Count on Amen Thompson to make the most of increased role

A youngster on the Houston Rockets headlines my NBA prop bets for Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Amen Thompson has thrived in an enhanced role lately, and he has another compelling matchup to seize tonight. I also like Trae Young to fill the net against the Boston Celtics.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 18.

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Best bet: Thompson over 12.5 rebounds/assists (-143)

Thompson got an early Christmas gift from the Houston Rockets this year: a huge boost in minutes.

In 10 games dating back to Dec. 23, the second-year small forward has averaged:

37.4 minutes
15.6 points
10.7 rebounds
3.3 assists

That’s roughly 11 minutes per night more than he’d been playing previously, and as you’d expect, he’s matched that with an increase in production.

There’s still a bit too much streakiness in Thompson’s shot volume from night to night, so I’m targeting his rebounds and assists in a smash matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Portland has allowed opposing small forwards to average 8.2 rebounds (fifth-most) and 4.3 assists (third-most) this season, per Betting Pros.

Thompson faced the Blazers twice in November when he was still coming off the bench. He cashed this bet once while totalling 18 rebounds and six assists in those matchups.

With more opportunities in recent games, Thompson has made this line very attainable.

And he’s found another gear this month after frontcourt teammate Jabari Smith Jr. (hand) suffered an injury.

Key stat: In his past six games (all without Smith), Thompson has averaged 11.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists.

Quick pick

Young over 23.5 points (-112): Young had his worst shooting performance of the year when he last faced Boston, but that was back in early November.

A 10-game scoring surge from the star point guard is what I’m keying in on:

27.2 PPG
40.4 3PT%
24+ points in 7/10 games

The Celtics played last night, so this might be a good opportunity for the lightning-quick Hawks (No. 2 in possessions per game) to get into track meet mode.

And Young should be encouraged to fire a bunch of 3s, both because he’s hot from outside and because the Celtics will be shooting plenty of their own.

Picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 01/18/2025.

Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Jan. 18: Back Cleveland to win, Edwards from deep at +325

The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Cleveland Cavaliers in a star-studded Saturday night matchup.

The pregame narrative: The Cavs pace the Eastern Conference and I’ll back them to beat a T-Wolves squad playing on a back-to-back. Prop bets on Anthony Edwards and Jarrett Allen round out this +325 wager.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 18.

Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves predictions

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Parlay: Cavaliers moneyline + Edwards over 2.5 threes + Allen under 12.5 points (+325)

Cavaliers moneyline (-235): The Cavs are coming off a 20-point loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but there are plenty of reasons to believe they’ll rebound tonight.

The Cavs have the best record (34-6) and net rating (+9.7) in the Eastern Conference.
Cleveland is 4-1 following a loss this season, winning three of those games by double digits.
Minnesota is 2-3 SU when playing on a back-to-back this year.

Kenny Atkinson has turned the Cavs into legitimate title contenders with an elite defence and strong offence. His team plays with the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA, while Minnesota ranks 27th.

With more rest, I expect Cleveland to dictate the pace of this game and pour it on a Minnesota team that was in New York less than 24 hours ago.

SGP legs

Edwards over 2.5 threes (-265): Edwards has put a miserable December behind him and is on a tear from deep to start 2025.

5.1 threes on 10.1 attempts/game (47.4%)
3+ threes in 7/9 games
5+ threes in 5/9 games

The dynamic shooting guard is coming off a 36-point night where he canned eight triples against the Knicks.

The one suspect part of Cleveland’s game is its perimeter defending, and Edwards should exploit that.

The Cavs rank 20th in opponent 3-point percentage (36.5%), though they do allow the 11th-fewest 3s per game (11.4).

But this bet seems safe strictly from a volume standpoint.

Allen under 12.5 points (-106): Evan Mobley is questionable with calf soreness. If he’s ruled out that should open up more looks for Allen, and you may see his point total rise a few ticks.

But either way, I’m happy to fade Cleveland’s big man.

Allen takes 72% of his shots at the rim and 26% of his shots in the “short mid-range” (shots from four to 14 feet), per Cleaning the Glass.

Minnesota has the ninth-best rim defence and fourth-best short mid-range defence. With Rudy Gobert in the paint, nothing should come easy.

Picks made at 11:47 a.m. ET 01/18/2025

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 18: Count on Amen Thompson, Trayce Jackson-Davis to make the most of increased roles

A couple of youngsters headline my NBA prop bets for Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Amen Thompson and Trayce Jackson-Davis have thrived in enhanced roles lately, and they both have compelling matchups to seize tonight. I also like Trae Young to fill the net against the Boston Celtics.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 18.

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Best bet: Thompson over 13.5 rebounds/assists (+105)

Thompson got an early Christmas gift from the Houston Rockets this year: a huge boost in minutes.

In 10 games dating back to Dec. 23, the second-year small forward has averaged:

37.4 minutes
15.6 points
10.7 rebounds
3.3 assists

That’s roughly 11 minutes per night more than he’d been playing previously, and as you’d expect, he’s matched that with an increase in production.

There’s still a bit too much streakiness in Thompson’s shot volume from night to night, so I’m targeting his rebounds and assists in a smash matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Portland has allowed opposing small forwards to average 8.2 rebounds (fifth-most) and 4.3 assists (third-most) this season, per Betting Pros.

Thompson faced the Blazers twice in November when he was still coming off the bench. He cashed this bet once while totalling 18 rebounds and six assists in those matchups.

With more opportunities in recent games, Thompson has made this line very attainable.

And he’s found another gear this month after frontcourt teammate Jabari Smith Jr. (hand) suffered an injury.

Key stat: In his past six games (all without Smith), Thompson has averaged 11.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists.

Quick picks

Jackson-Davis over 20.5 points/rebounds (-115): Jackson-Davis re-entered the Golden State Warriors’ starting lineup on Dec. 21, and since then he’s shown flashes as a talented starting centre.

Consistency is still lacking, but I think the second-year big is worth backing when the right matchup comes around. Like this one.

The Washington Wizards allow the most points (28.1/game) and the fourth-most rebounds (16.1/game) to opposing centres. With them due up on the schedule, this total should be within reach.

In 14 games since re-joining the starting lineup, Jackson-Davis has cashed this bet seven times while averaging 19.5 PR.

Young over 23.5 points (-108): Young had his worst shooting performance of the year when he last faced Boston, but that was back in early November.

A 10-game scoring surge from the star point guard is what I’m keying in on:

27.2 PPG
40.4 3PT%
24+ points in 7/10 games

The Celtics played last night, so this might be a good opportunity for the lightning-quick Hawks (No. 2 in possessions per game) to get into track meet mode.

And Young should be encouraged to fire a bunch of 3s, both because he’s hot from outside and because the Celtics will be shooting plenty of their own.

Picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 01/18/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 17: Bet on Wembanyama to dominate vs. Grizzlies, Herro to shine in Butler’s return

Victor Wembanyama was a defensive menace against the Memphis Grizzlies two nights ago, and I expect him to run it back on Friday in the same matchup.

The pregame narrative: The over on Wemby’s steals/blocks market comes in at plus money, and I’m buying in. Earlier in the night, look for Tyler Herro to stay hot in Jimmy Butler’s return.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 17.

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Best bet: Herro 35+ points/rebounds/assists (-134)

My initial thought with Herro was to back him over 24.5 points, but with the unpredictability of Butler’s return, I think this catch-all market might be a better play (you know, in case Butler starts heaving one-legged 3s from the corner again).

Herro is listed as a shooting guard, but he’s more like a Swiss Army knife for Miami.

In addition to leading the team in scoring (24.3 PPG), he’s also the leading passer (5.0 APG) and their No. 2 rebounder (5.7 RPG).

Altogether, that works out to an average of 35.0 PRA right on the dot.

Butler is also an accomplished passer and rebounder, but again, we don’t know what we’re getting from him tonight.

After fuelling trade rumours and serving a seven-game suspension, Butler is expected to play on Friday — but for how long and at what intensity?

Herro, on the other hand, has embraced a leadership role and is putting up career-best numbers across the board.

Over his past 15 games, Herro has cashed this bet 10 times while averaging 36.2 PRA.

Key stat: Against the Denver Nuggets (tonight’s opponents) back in November, Herro had 24 points, seven rebounds and 11 assists.

Quick picks

Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 threes (-129): The last time he faced the Orlando Magic, Porzingis went 0-for-4 from deep. Generally speaking, though, he’s dominant against this line.

Porzingis has cashed this bet in 12 of 17 games this year, averaging 2.2 makes on 37.0% shooting.

Yes, Orlando is arguably the worst possible matchup, as the team holds opponents to an NBA-low 11.0 threes per game.

But at Porzingis’ current volume (5.9 attempted threes per game), I don’t think this is too lofty of an ask.

Wembanyama over 5.5 steals/blocks (+102): This is a sky-high line that only Wembanyama could reach. But on the plus side of even money, I’m willing to take a flier on the over.

Two nights ago, Wemby swatted eight shots (all in the first half) and added two steals against the Grizzlies. He’ll see them again tonight, which is part of what makes this an enticing pick.

Memphis’ opponents have tallied the eighth-most steals (9.5/game) and the seventh-most blocks (5.8/game) this season.

The other factor here is that Wemby is a 1-of-1 rim protector. His output of “stocks” over the past 14 games is absurd:

5.1 blocks/game
1.0 steals/game
6+ stocks in 7/14
5+ stocks in 11/14

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 01/17/2025.