A youngster on the Houston Rockets headlines my NBA prop bets for Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: Amen Thompson has thrived in an enhanced role lately, and he has another compelling matchup to seize tonight. I also like Trae Young to fill the net against the Boston Celtics.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 18.
NBA prop bets
Go to full NBA betting markets
Best bet: Thompson over 12.5 rebounds/assists (-143)
Thompson got an early Christmas gift from the Houston Rockets this year: a huge boost in minutes.
In 10 games dating back to Dec. 23, the second-year small forward has averaged:
- 37.4 minutes
- 15.6 points
- 10.7 rebounds
- 3.3 assists
That’s roughly 11 minutes per night more than he’d been playing previously, and as you’d expect, he’s matched that with an increase in production.
There’s still a bit too much streakiness in Thompson’s shot volume from night to night, so I’m targeting his rebounds and assists in a smash matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Portland has allowed opposing small forwards to average 8.2 rebounds (fifth-most) and 4.3 assists (third-most) this season, per Betting Pros.
Thompson faced the Blazers twice in November when he was still coming off the bench. He cashed this bet once while totalling 18 rebounds and six assists in those matchups.
With more opportunities in recent games, Thompson has made this line very attainable.
And he’s found another gear this month after frontcourt teammate Jabari Smith Jr. (hand) suffered an injury.
Key stat: In his past six games (all without Smith), Thompson has averaged 11.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists.
Quick pick
Young over 23.5 points (-112): Young had his worst shooting performance of the year when he last faced Boston, but that was back in early November.
A 10-game scoring surge from the star point guard is what I’m keying in on:
- 27.2 PPG
- 40.4 3PT%
- 24+ points in 7/10 games
The Celtics played last night, so this might be a good opportunity for the lightning-quick Hawks (No. 2 in possessions per game) to get into track meet mode.
And Young should be encouraged to fire a bunch of 3s, both because he’s hot from outside and because the Celtics will be shooting plenty of their own.
Picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 01/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.