Category: NBA

The top teams in each conference clash on Thursday when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The pregame narrative: The Cavs won the first leg of this matchup, 129-122, in Cleveland on Jan. 8. But I’m expecting a better effort from the Thunder at home and am fading Evan Mobley while backing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Thunder prop picks for Jan. 16.

Cavaliers vs. Thunder prop picks

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Best Bet: Mobley under 19.5 points (-112)

Mobley is in the midst of his best scoring season (19.0 PPG) and cleared this number against the Thunder just over a week ago with 21 points.

But I have good reason to fade the Cavaliers’ big man tonight.

This is a number he’s cleared more often than not, though just barely. Mobley is 19-18 against this line and has landed on exactly 20 or 21 points five times.

He’s shooting an efficient 57.7% from the field but doesn’t put up a ton of shots (12.6 per game).

Mobley hasn’t attempted more than 13 field goals in five straight games, which really limits his ceiling as a scorer — especially against a team like the Thunder.

OKC has the best defensive rating (102.9) and lowest opponent effective field goal percentage (49.9%) in the NBA.

I expect Mark Daigneault’s group to dial in defensively at home and limit Mobley tonight.

Key stat: The Thunder give up the second-fewest PPG to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Quick pick

Gilgeous-Alexander over 1.5 threes (-134): Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the league in scoring (31.4), which has put him in pole position to win MVP.

The Canadian superstar has never been a big 3-point shooter and has reverted to being a mid-range assassin and elite finisher after attempting plenty of deep balls to start the season.

Still, I think this is a fair price to back SGA at tonight.

Cleveland has allowed the eighth-highest opponent 3-point rate (36.5%) in the NBA. It also allows the 12th-most 3s per game to opposing point guards.

Gilgeous-Alexander went 1-for-6 from deep against the Cavs in their last meeting, but that’s the type of volume I like to see.

He’s cleared this number in 23 of 39 starts (58.9%).

Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 01/16/2025.

I’m locking into tonight’s Los Angeles Clippers versus Portland Trail Blazers matchup with a pair of prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Norman Powell is shooting (and scoring) in bunches, and he looks like a great play tonight against a struggling Blazers squad. I also think Scoot Henderson can build off a career night, while Cade Cunningham is worth a look at plus money.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 16.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Powell 25+ points (-108)

Powell just continues to crush it in his first season as a starter for the Clippers.

The 10-year veteran is playing more and shooting more than ever before, which has led to a career-high scoring average (23.7 PPG).

He’s not just benefiting from volume, though. Powell is shooting the lights out, especially from 3-point range. His 44.7% shooting beyond the arc ranks second in the NBA.

Last night, Powell finished with 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting (3-of-4 from deep). I’m sure he would’ve done more damage, but in a game the Clippers won by 59 points, he spent most of the second half on the bench.

Now he’ll face the Portland Trail Blazers, who are a plus matchup for talented shooting guards:

• 29th in points by opposing SGs
• 28th in defensive rating
• 27th in opponent 3PT%

Prior to last night’s abridged appearance, Powell had scored 25-plus points in nine of 12 games. This is a smash spot.

Key stat: Powell finished with 30 points in both previous matchups against the Blazers this season.

Quick picks

Henderson over 1.5 threes (-138): Two nights ago, Henderson re-entered Portland’s starting lineup and enjoyed the best game of his very young and embattled career:

• 39 minutes
• 39 points
• 13-of-18 shooting (8/10 3PT)

With multiple would-be starters slated to miss tonight’s game, Henderson should slot back into a starting spot.

Combine a minutes boost with what should be a confidence boost after his 39-point night, and I think we’re in business here.

Henderson has cashed this bet in six of his past 12 games, and he came off the bench in 11 of those games. The Clippers aren’t an ideal matchup, but on the heels of a back-to-back, he might be catching them at the right time.

Cunningham over 2.5 threes (+110): Cunningham is having a moment right now, making a serious push for his first all-star bid in the final days of fan voting.

The Detroit Pistons’ floor general has scored 30-plus points in four of his past six games, and I think they’ll need to lean on him in a key matchup against the Indiana Pacers.

Cunningham’s markets are looking bloated these days thanks to his strong output, but I think plus-money odds on this 3s line has value.

• In two previous matchups vs. Indiana this year, Cunningham is 6-of-12 (50.0%) from deep.

• Cunningham has 3+ threes in 13/19 games since Nov. 29, shooting 40.2% beyond the arc in that span.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 01/16/2025.

Steph Curry and Paolo Banchero headline my NBA prop bets for Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Curry is a do-it-all star for the Golden State Warriors, and I like him to put up a solid rebounds/assists total tonight in Minnesota. But my best bet is on Brandon Miller, who I expect to shoot his way out of a small rough patch.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 15.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Brandon Miller 20+ points (-110)

I’d like to see Miller break out of a mini-slump, and that should happen at some point based on his shot volume.

In the past five games, the second-year small forward has struggled to fill the net:

• 17.2 PPG
• 38.2 FG%
• Under 19.5 points in 4/5 games

But in that span, he’s still attempted 15.2 shots per game — including 9.8 attempts from 3-point range. When a guy shoots that much, a 20-point night is never out of reach.

Miller was a machine against that number just before this little skid. He had a 12-game stretch in which he cashed this bet every time, averaging 27.0 points on 21.8 FGA.

So, yes, the shot attempts are down a bit in his more recent games. But not to the point where he can’t hit this mark.

Tonight, Miller and the Charlotte Hornets face the Utah Jazz. Utah allows the fifth-most points and the third-most attempted 3s in the league.

If Miller keeps firing, I like his chances of turning things around — especially in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Utah allows the fifth-most PPG to opposing small forwards (23.4), per Betting Pros.

Quick picks

Banchero 25+ points (-112): I wish I could ask Banchero what happened on Sunday. In a narrow win over the Philadelphia 76ers, he only attempted eight shots.

Banchero finished with 20 points thanks to some efficient shooting (5-of-8 from the floor, 9-of-11 from the free throw line), but that only adds to my puzzlement.

Why not keep shooting when it’s going well?

The third-year power forward was only in his second game back from an oblique injury, but that hadn’t slowed him down in this previous matchup.

Against a solid Milwaukee Bucks defence, Banchero had 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting (in just 27 minutes) on Jan. 10.

Banchero faces Milwaukee again tonight. Hopefully he starts to see a bit of a minutes uptick, but either way, I know he’s capable of cashing.

Curry over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-112): At 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, Curry isn’t someone you’d expect to pull down a bunch of rebounds. But he’s been crushing it on the glass lately.

• 6+ rebounds in 6/7 games since Dec. 28.
• 5.1 RPG on the year

I don’t expect a huge rebounding total for Curry against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but that’s where his passing prowess comes in. Curry is averaging 6.1 assists this year, meaning he’s averaging 11.2 RA collectively.

In 31 games, Curry has cashed this bet 20 times (64.5%). That includes two of three meetings against the T-Wolves last month.

Draymond Green, who’s second on the Warriors in both rebounds and assists, is questionable due to an illness and a back injury. If he’s out, that could mean more opportunities for Curry.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 01/15/2025.