Category: NBA

Raptors vs. Celtics same-game parlay predictions Jan. 15: Back White and Porzingis at +300

Celtics vs. Raptors predictions

The Toronto Raptors host the reigning champion Boston Celtics on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a heavy home underdog for good reason. That said, I’ll still back the Raptors to cover with some extra cushion. Player prop bets on Derrick White and Kristaps Porzingis round out this +300 SGP.

Check out my Raptors vs. Celtics same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 15.

Raptors vs. Celtics predictions

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Parlay: Raptors +20 + White over 12.5 points + Porzingis over 1.5 threes (+300)

Raptors +20 (-220): The only thing Toronto is contending for this season is Cooper Flagg, but that doesn’t mean the squad has been uncompetitive.

  • The Raptors are 22-17-1 ATS, the sixth-best mark in the NBA, despite owning a 9-31 record.
  • That includes a 12-5-1 ATS record as home underdogs, which is the best of any team that’s played more than two games with that distinction.

The Raps have played the Celtics twice — both times in Boston — with drastically different results. First, they lost 126-123 in overtime and second, they were routed 125-71.

But Toronto was missing RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick and Jamal Shead in the latter contest. They’re all slated to play tonight.

Darko Rajakovic’s group has covered this number in six of its last seven games since that blowout loss in Boston.

SGP legs

White over 12.5 points (-132): White has just nine points in his last two games while shooting a combined 2-of-14 from the field. That’s ugly. But he’s poised to bounce back tonight.

Boston’s point guard is averaging 16.4 PPG on the season and has cleared this mark in both contests against the Raptors, scoring 16 and 18 points.

He’s an active shooter from deep, and that’s an area Toronto struggles to defend (more on that later).

The Raptors also allow the fourth-most points per game to opposing PGs, according to Fantasy Pros.

Porzingis over 1.5 threes (-220): Porzingis is on a nice run for the Celtics this month, averaging 19.2 PPG while playing north of 30 minutes a night.

He’s also been solid from beyond the arc in January:

  • 2.2 threes/game
  • 39.3 3PT%
  • 1+ three in every game

The Raptors give up the fourth-most 3s per game (14.4) at the seventh-highest rate (37.0%). Porzingis is attempting 5.9 threes per game this season, which puts him in a good spot to cash this on volume alone.

Picks made at 10:39 a.m. ET 01/15/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 15: Bet on big nights for Curry, Miller and Banchero

NBA prop bets

Steph Curry and Paolo Banchero headline my NBA prop bets for Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Curry is a do-it-all star for the Golden State Warriors, and I like him to put up a solid rebounds/assists total tonight in Minnesota. But my best bet is on Brandon Miller, who I expect to shoot his way out of a small rough patch.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 15.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Brandon Miller 20+ points (-109)

I’d like to see Miller break out of a mini-slump, and that should happen at some point based on his shot volume.

In the past five games, the second-year small forward has struggled to fill the net:

  • 17.2 PPG
  • 38.2 FG%
  • Under 19.5 points in 4/5 games

But in that span, he’s still attempted 15.2 shots per game — including 9.8 attempts from 3-point range. When a guy shoots that much, a 20-point night is never out of reach.

Miller was a machine against that number just before this little skid. He had a 12-game stretch in which he cashed this bet every time, averaging 27.0 points on 21.8 FGA.

So, yes, the shot attempts are down a bit in his more recent games. But not to the point where he can’t hit this mark.

Tonight, Miller and the Charlotte Hornets face the Utah Jazz. Utah allows the fifth-most points and the third-most attempted 3s in the league.

If Miller keeps firing, I like his chances of turning things around — especially in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Utah allows the fifth-most PPG to opposing small forwards (23.4), per Betting Pros.

Quick picks

Banchero 25+ points (-113): I wish I could ask Banchero what happened on Sunday. In a narrow win over the Philadelphia 76ers, he only attempted eight shots.

Banchero finished with 20 points thanks to some efficient shooting (5-of-8 from the floor, 9-of-11 from the free throw line), but that only adds to my puzzlement.

Why not keep shooting when it’s going well?

The third-year power forward was only in his second game back from an oblique injury, but that hadn’t slowed him down in this previous matchup.

Against a solid Milwaukee Bucks defence, Banchero had 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting (in just 27 minutes) on Jan. 10.

Banchero faces Milwaukee again tonight. Hopefully he starts to see a bit of a minutes uptick, but either way, I know he’s capable of cashing.

Curry over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-115): At 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, Curry isn’t someone you’d expect to pull down a bunch of rebounds. But he’s been crushing it on the glass lately.

  • 6+ rebounds in 6/7 games since Dec. 28.
  • 5.1 RPG on the year

I don’t expect a huge rebounding total for Curry against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but that’s where his passing prowess comes in. Curry is averaging 6.1 assists this year, meaning he’s averaging 11.2 RA collectively.

In 31 games, Curry has cashed this bet 20 times (64.5%). That includes two of three meetings against the T-Wolves last month.

Draymond Green, who’s second on the Warriors in both rebounds and assists, is questionable due to an illness and a back injury. If he’s out, that could mean more opportunities for Curry.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 01/15/2025.

Thunder vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 14: Bet on Thunder to cover alt-spread, fade Maxey

Thunder vs. Sixers predictions

The first-place Oklahoma City Thunder looks to take care of business against the struggling Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Oklahoma City is posting elite defensive numbers and I am backing their alt spread in this +340 SGP. Therefore, I believe Maxey is worth fading as a scorer while Isaiah Hartenstein should hit the over on his assists prop.

Check out my Thunder vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 14.

Thunder vs. 76ers predictions

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Parlay: Thunder -9.5 + Maxey under 3.5 threes + Hartenstein over 3.5 assists (+320)

Thunder -9.5 (-200): It’s hard to imagine the Sixers finding any offensive success against an elite defence, especially with Joel Embiid out.

Oklahoma City is posting a league-best 102.9 defensive rating while carrying four of the top 10 qualified players in defensive rating.

Offensively, the Thunder are not world-beaters by any means. However, with the Sixers missing Embiid and Andre Drummond for this game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Isaiah Hartenstein can wreak havoc in the paint.

Atop the Western Conference standings, the Thunder are winning most of their games in blowout fashion. Seven of their last eight wins came by double-digits, including against the New York Knicks (117-107) and Boston Celtics (105-92).

Meanwhile, the Sixers are a woeful 4-13 ATS at home this season. Recent losses came against the Phoenix Suns (by 10 points) and an inferior New Orleans Pelicans team (by eight points).

SGP legs

Maxey under 3.5 threes (-138): Maxey is one the few shining lights in the Sixers lineup, but faces a tough matchup against a scrappy Thunder defence.

  • Best three-point defence (32%)
  • Allowing 12.4 3PTM per game (2nd)
  • Allowing 20.8 PPG to point guards (2nd)

The all-star point guard, being asked to attempt more three-point shots, is hitting at a career-worst 33.6 clip through 31 games.

He’s failed to exceed this mark in eight of his last 10 games, despite averaging 9.6 attempts during that stretch.

I expect an undersized Maxey to be held in check, with Paul George taking on a bigger shooting role.

Hartenstein over 3.5 assists (-150): If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Head coach Mark Daigneault is giving Hartenstein more reign to create plays, and it’s worked wonders thus far.

The seven-footer has cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 4.6 assists during that stretch.

Philly is the seventh-best team in preventing assists to centres. However, this doesn’t factor in the key absences in their paint protection.

The potential for a blowout does make it a tad worrisome. But there’s no reason this leg can’t cash before that becomes a factor.

Picks made at 2:33 p.m. on 01/14/25.

Thunder vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 14: Bet on Thunder to cover alt-spread, fade Maxey

Thunder vs. Sixers predictions

The first-place Oklahoma City Thunder looks to take care of business against the struggling Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Oklahoma City is posting elite defensive numbers and I am backing their alt spread in this +340 SGP. Therefore, I believe Maxey is worth fading as a scorer while Isaiah Hartenstein should hit the over on his assists prop.

Check out my Thunder vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 14.

Thunder vs. 76ers predictions

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Parlay: Thunder -9.5 + Maxey under 3.5 threes + Hartenstein over 3.5 assists (+340)

Thunder -9.5 (-195): It’s hard to imagine the Sixers finding any offensive success against an elite defence, especially with Joel Embiid out.

Oklahoma City is posting a league-best 102.9 defensive rating while carrying four of the top 10 qualified players in defensive rating.

Offensively, the Thunder are not world-beaters by any means. However, with the Sixers missing Embiid and Andre Drummond for this game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Isaiah Hartenstein can wreak havoc in the paint.

Atop the Western Conference standings, the Thunder are winning most of their games in blowout fashion. Seven of their last eight wins came by double-digits, including against the New York Knicks (117-107) and Boston Celtics (105-92).

Meanwhile, the Sixers are a woeful 4-13 ATS at home this season. Recent losses came against the Phoenix Suns (by 10 points) and an inferior New Orleans Pelicans team (by eight points).

SGP legs

Maxey under 3.5 threes (-141): Maxey is one the few shining lights in the Sixers lineup, but faces a tough matchup against a scrappy Thunder defence.

  • Best three-point defence (32%)
  • Allowing 12.4 3PTM per game (2nd)
  • Allowing 20.8 PPG to point guards (2nd)

The all-star point guard, being asked to attempt more three-point shots, is hitting at a career-worst 33.6 clip through 31 games.

He’s failed to exceed this mark in eight of his last 10 games, despite averaging 9.6 attempts during that stretch.

I expect an undersized Maxey to be held in check, with Paul George taking on a bigger shooting role.

Hartenstein over 3.5 assists (-115): If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Head coach Mark Daigneault is giving Hartenstein more reign to create plays, and it’s worked wonders thus far.

The seven-footer has cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 4.6 assists during that stretch.

Philly is the seventh-best team in preventing assists to centres. However, this doesn’t factor in the key absences in their paint protection.

The potential for a blowout does make it a tad worrisome. But there’s no reason this leg can’t cash before that becomes a factor.

Picks made at 2:33 p.m. on 01/14/25.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions Jan. 14: Bet on Klay Thompson to shoot the lights out in +300 wager

Nuggets vs. Mavericks predictions

The Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks will run it back at the American Airlines Center on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: The banged-up Nuggets will put its three-game road win streak on the line Tuesday against a Mavericks squad with injury concerns of its own. The Nuggets won the Jan. 12 meeting, 112-101, and I’m predicting a similar result tonight. This +300 SGP also includes prop picks on Klay Thompson and Michael Porter Jr.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 14.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks predictions

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Parlay: Nuggets moneyline, Thompson 3+ threes, Porter Jr. 15+ points (+300)

Nuggets (-157): Denver is rolling right now and I’m buying in.

This game is littered with injury tags on both sides but the most important detail is that Nikola Jokic is listed as probable after dealing with an illness.

Since Dec. 8 the Nuggets are 12-5 as they sit fourth in the Western Conference. They beat the Mavericks on Saturday, and with Luka Doncic ruled out, expect a similar result.

The Mavericks are 9-8 this season without Doncic and 40-52 since 2018 when missing their franchise player.

To add insult to injury for Dallas, Kyrie Irving is listed as questionable with both a back injury and illness.

So Dallas could be down two superstars against a hot Nuggets side. Even if Irving plays, there’s reason to believe he’ll be less than 100%.

The Mavericks are 3-7 in their last 10 games.

SGP legs

Thompson 3+ threes (-195): With Doncic listed as out and Irving questionable, extra shots should open up for Thompson.

The veteran sharpshooter is starting to find his groove from range, hitting three-plus 3-pointers in eight of his past 11 games.

That includes a 6-for-13 night against the Nuggets on Saturday. He is now shooting 38.5% for the season from beyond the arc on 7.9 attempts per game.

Since Dec. 5, he’s been hitting threes at a 41.2% clip suggesting Thompson has shaken off the rust from the multitude of injuries he has suffered in recent years.

He looks like a premier shooter once again, capable of hitting this line on any night.

Porter Jr. 15+ points (-143): Here’s another player who’s been on a tear.

On Saturday, Porter fell short of this mark, finishing with 13 points. But he scored 15-plus in 11 straight games straight before that, averaging 21.2 points over that span.

For the season, he’s averaging 18.1 PPG, more than he needs tonight for this leg to cash.

Denver’s Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are both questionable. If either of those two were to miss the game, Porter will surely benefit from more volume, too.

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. on 01/14/24.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 14: Back Fox, Booker and Vucevic on Jan. 14

NBA prop bets

Our NBA prop bets for Jan. 14 contain picks on two guards and one big man.

The pregame narrative: De’Aaron Fox has a winning matchup tonight, so I expect him to score at will. I’m also backing Devin Booker and Nikola Vucevic on the prop markets.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 14.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Fox over 25.5 points (-120)

In a contract year, Fox is earning himself quite the payday. The 27-year-old is averaging 26.6 points on an efficient 48.8% from the field.

He has cleared this line in five of the past six games and has drawn a favourable matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. Consider:

  • The Bucks allow the second most points per game (26.7) to PGs, per Fantasy Pros.
  • In Milwaukee’s most recent game on Jan. 12, Jalen Brunson scored 44 points on 16-of-26 shooting.

Also working in Fox’s favour is that he has a high floor as a scorer. In 36 total games this season, he scored 20-plus points 31 times.

Key stat: Fox cashed this wager in both games against Milwaukee last season while averaging 30.5 points per.

Quick picks

Booker over 33.5 points/assists (-120): Booker’s opponent Tuesday, the Atlanta Hawks, play at a high pace and are a below-average defensive team.

That makes any opposing player prop look enticing, but let’s focus on Booker.

Since the Suns moved Bradley Beal to the bench, Booker is 3-2 against this line, averaging 35.4 points/assists. He’s taken on more playmaking responsibilities and it’s been working.

Tonight, he gets a great matchup:

  • The Hawks allow the third-most PPG (119.8).
  • They also give up the third-most assists (28.8).

Vucevic over 10.5 rebounds (+100): I love this pick at plus money.

Vucevic averages 10.1 rebounds per game, so we’ll need an above-average performance against the New Orleans Pelicans. I think he’ll deliver.

  • New Orleans allows the most rebounds per game (17.4) to centres.
  • Vucevic has cleared this line in six of the past eight contests.

The Pelicans have relied on Yves Missi at centre and he’s exceeded expectations. But he’s still a rookie and can have a hard time in the paint against veteran big men.

Vucevic is just that and he’s averaged 10-plus rebounds in 11 of his 13 NBA seasons. I predict a strong night on the glass Tuesday.

Picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 01/14/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 14: Back Fox, Booker and Vucevic on Jan. 14

NBA prop bets

Our NBA prop bets for Jan. 14 contain picks on two guards and one big man.

The pregame narrative: De’Aaron Fox has a winning matchup tonight, so I expect him to score at will. I’m also backing Devin Booker and Nikola Vucevic on the prop markets.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 14.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Fox over 25.5 points (-115)

In a contract year, Fox is earning himself quite the payday. The 27-year-old is averaging 26.6 points on an efficient 48.8% from the field.

He has cleared this line in five of the past six games and has drawn a favourable matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. Consider:

  • The Bucks allow the second most points per game (26.7) to PGs, per Fantasy Pros.
  • In Milwaukee’s most recent game on Jan. 12, Jalen Brunson scored 44 points on 16-of-26 shooting.

Also working in Fox’s favour is that he has a high floor as a scorer. In 36 total games this season, he scored 20-plus points 31 times.

Key stat: Fox cashed this wager in both games against Milwaukee last season while averaging 30.5 points per.

Quick picks

Booker over 33.5 points/assists (-120): Booker’s opponent Tuesday, the Atlanta Hawks, play at a high pace and are a below-average defensive team.

That makes any opposing player prop look enticing, but let’s focus on Booker.

Since the Suns moved Bradley Beal to the bench, Booker is 3-2 against this line, averaging 35.4 points/assists. He’s taken on more playmaking responsibilities and it’s been working.

Tonight, he gets a great matchup:

  • The Hawks allow the third-most PPG (119.8).
  • They also give up the third-most assists (28.8).

Vucevic over 10.5 rebounds (+100): I love this pick at plus money.

Vucevic averages 10.1 rebounds per game, so we’ll need an above-average performance against the New Orleans Pelicans. I think he’ll deliver.

  • New Orleans allows the most rebounds per game (17.4) to centres.
  • Vucevic has cleared this line in six of the past eight contests.

The Pelicans have relied on Yves Missi at centre and he’s exceeded expectations. But he’s still a rookie and can have a hard time in the paint against veteran big men.

Vucevic is just that and he’s averaged 10-plus rebounds in 11 of his 13 NBA seasons. I predict a strong night on the glass Tuesday.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 01/14/2025.

Spurs vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 13: Bet on Wembanyama and Davis at +310

Spurs vs. Lakers predictions

The San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers take part in a marquee Monday night game.

The pregame narrative: With both teams coming off extended rest, I’m hesitant to pick a side. Instead, my +310 SGP features player props on Anthony Davis, Victor Wembanyama and Chris Paul.

Check out my Spurs vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 13.

Spurs vs. Lakers predictions

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Parlay: Davis over 24.5 points + Wembanyama over 2.5 threes + Paul over 7.5 assists (+310)

Davis over 24.5 points (-152): This is a matchup Davis can take advantage of, as he’s demonstrated before.

Since the Spurs acquired Wembanyama in the 2023 NBA Draft, Davis is 3-1 against this line versus them. In those games, he scored an average of 31.0 points.

To add, San Antonio allows the fourth-most points per game (25.1) to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

Wemby is a shot-blocking machine but his inexperience can lead to defensive breakdowns and I expect Davis to go off on Monday after an extended break.

SGP legs

Wembanyama over 2.5 threes (-159): Wembanyama has been in a bit of a tough shooting spell right now, failing to clear this line in three of the past five games.

Before that, he sank three or more 3-pointers in six straight games and I’m always happy backing the volume.

Davis is a premier paint defender, so I expect Wemby to spend more time on the perimeter. In his two meetings with the Lakers this season, he attempted 22 total 3s.

Wemby went 2-for-9 and 4-for-13, respectively, in those games. But that volume is what has my attention.

At 7-foot-3, Wembanyama looks unconventional firing 3s at an alarming rate. But he’s a good shooter, averaging 3.3 makes on 9.3 attempts per game from deep (35.4%).

With an expected uptick in volume on Monday, this was a no-brainer addition to the SGP.

Paul over 7.5 assists (-150): Paul has fit like a glove in San Antonio.

The 12-time all-star is no longer in his prime, but he can still dish the rock with the best of them.

In Year 20, Paul averages 8.3 assists per game (sixth in the NBA) and draws a good matchup against the Lakers. Los Angeles allows the fifth-most assists to point guards (9.7).

Additionally, Paul is 15-2 against this line when playing more than 30 minutes in a game this season.

In a game with a 4.5-point spread — in favour of the Lakers — I expect a close game in which Paul logs a lot of minutes.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. on 01/13/24.

Heat vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 13: Fade James Harden but bet on L.A. to win

Heat vs. Clippers predictions

The Los Angeles Clippers look to lean into their home-court advantage tonight against the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: L.A. has been one of the league’s strongest home squads, and I like the Clippers on an alt spread in this +475 SGP. Even so, I think James Harden is worth fading as a scorer while Bam Adebayo should hit the over on his assists prop.

Check out my Heat vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 13.

Heat vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers -3.5 + Harden under 20.5 points + Adebayo over 3.5 assists (+475)

Clippers -3.5 (-175): For the Clippers, getting a stadium all to themselves has been worth the wait.

In Year 1 at the Intuit Dome, the Clips are 12-6 straight up and ATS. They also have the NBA’s top ATS record as home favourites (7-2-0).

In each of its past five games as a home favourite, Los Angeles won by a double-digit margin. That includes victories over the Hawks and Warriors within the past three weeks.

Miami has won three games in a row amid a six-game West Coast swing, but I’m still not confident backing the Heat in a spot like this.

The Heat are 8-11 ATS as visitors this season, and they recently lost by 36 points at home against the lowly Jazz (Jan. 4).

SGP legs

Harden under 20.5 points (-120): Harden has cleared this point total more often than not this season, but that’s because of a bloated shot volume.

The 16-year vet is shooting a career-low 38.9% from the floor, and that dreadful inefficiency seems to finally be catching up.

Look at Harden’s numbers over his past eight games:

  • 18.8 PPG
  • 37.8 FG%
  • 28.6 3PT%
  • Under 20.5 points in 5/8

Kawhi Leonard isn’t on the injury report, so he should be in tonight. If Leonard can get more involved — after only making his season debut on Jan. 4 — Harden should be disincentivized to shoot at will.

Adebayo over 3.5 assists (-130): In the right matchup, Adebayo should be cashing this bet with ease. He averages 4.6 assists per game, after all.

And as it turns out, the Clippers look like the type of matchup where Adebayo can take advantage.

  • Adebayo has 4+ assists in 3/5 games vs. LAC since 2022 (finishing with exactly three assists in one of the outliers).
  • This season, LAC has allowed the third-most assists to opposing centres (4.9/game), per Betting Pros.

Adebayo has gone over 3.5 assists in 15 of his past 24 games (62.5%), averaging 5.0 APG in that span. Miami doesn’t have a clear-cut No.1 facilitator, and the veteran centre takes his turn.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 01/13/24.

Heat vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 13: Fade James Harden but bet on L.A. to win

Heat vs. Clippers predictions

The Los Angeles Clippers look to lean into their home-court advantage tonight against the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: L.A. has been one of the league’s strongest home squads, and I like the Clippers on an alt spread in this +430 SGP. Even so, I think James Harden is worth fading as a scorer while Bam Adebayo should hit the over on his assists prop.

Check out my Heat vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 13.

Heat vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers -3.5 + Harden under 20.5 points + Adebayo over 3.5 assists (+430)

Clippers -3.5 (-186): For the Clippers, getting a stadium all to themselves has been worth the wait.

In Year 1 at the Intuit Dome, the Clips are 12-6 straight up and ATS. They also have the NBA’s top ATS record as home favourites (7-2-0).

In each of its past five games as a home favourite, Los Angeles won by a double-digit margin. That includes victories over the Hawks and Warriors within the past three weeks.

Miami has won three games in a row amid a six-game West Coast swing, but I’m still not confident backing the Heat in a spot like this.

The Heat are 8-11 ATS as visitors this season, and they recently lost by 36 points at home against the lowly Jazz (Jan. 4).

SGP legs

Harden under 20.5 points (-120): Harden has cleared this point total more often than not this season, but that’s because of a bloated shot volume.

The 16-year vet is shooting a career-low 38.9% from the floor, and that dreadful inefficiency seems to finally be catching up.

Look at Harden’s numbers over his past eight games:

  • 18.8 PPG
  • 37.8 FG%
  • 28.6 3PT%
  • Under 20.5 points in 5/8

Kawhi Leonard isn’t on the injury report, so he should be in tonight. If Leonard can get more involved — after only making his season debut on Jan. 4 — Harden should be disincentivized to shoot at will.

Adebayo over 3.5 assists (-175): In the right matchup, Adebayo should be cashing this bet with ease. He averages 4.6 assists per game, after all.

And as it turns out, the Clippers look like the type of matchup where Adebayo can take advantage.

  • Adebayo has 4+ assists in 3/5 games vs. LAC since 2022 (finishing with exactly three assists in one of the outliers).
  • This season, LAC has allowed the third-most assists to opposing centres (4.9/game), per Betting Pros.

Adebayo has gone over 3.5 assists in 15 of his past 24 games (62.5%), averaging 5.0 APG in that span. Miami doesn’t have a clear-cut No.1 facilitator, and the veteran centre takes his turn.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 01/13/24.