Category: NBA

Warriors vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Jan. 13: Back RJ Barrett in +380 ticket

Warriors vs. Raptors predictions

On Monday, the Golden State Warriors take on the Toronto Raptors north of the border.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is in full tank mode but I believe there is potential for a lot of points tonight. Therefore, I’ll be taking the over on an alternate total with picks on RJ Barrett and Dennis Schroder in this +380 SGP.

Check out my Warriors vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 13.

Warriors vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Over 221.5 points + Barrett over 21.5 points + Schroder under 13.5 points (+400)

Over 221.5 points (-223): Toronto has been losing games and giving up a boatload of points at the same time.

Since Dec. 23, the Raptors are 1-9 SU while allowing 126.9 PPG.

In that span, the over on this total is 7-3, and when it hasn’t hit, it’s been because of the Raptors’ lacklustre offence.

However, Toronto scored 113.0 PPG at home this season, almost four points per game more than on the road (109.3).

Overs are 13-7 at Scotiabank Arena this season, also, which is the second-best home overs record in the NBA, per Team Rankings.

SGP legs

Barrett over 21.5 points (-120): This is a risky pick with how Barrett has been playing, but much like his team, he plays better at home.

And it’s pretty drastic.

  • Home: 27.2 PPG, 51.7/38.7/79.1 shooting
  • Road: 18.9 PPG, 40.8/27.7/60.9 shooting

Some believe he’s struggling due to returning players like Immanuel Quickly taking up shots, but the stats tell me it’s all about the location for Barrett.

He is 10-4 against this line at home this season. In his last game in Toronto, Barrett scored 25 points on 11-of-18 shooting against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Schroder under 13.5 points (-112): This isn’t a line we would’ve seen while Schroder was with the Brooklyn Nets, but he’s settled into a bench role with the Warriors.

In 13 appearances with his new team, Schroder is 2-11 against this line. Toronto provides a good matchup, but the point guard’s ceiling is currently limited.

With Golden State, he’s averaging 9.9 points per game while shooting the ball poorly (33.1%).

Toronto’s defence makes a lot of mistakes but the side has a lot of athletic defenders that can make Schroder’s life tough on Monday.

Anything but an above-average performance would be enough to cash this leg.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 01/13/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 13: Bet on Randle, fade Ja Morant on Monday night

NBA prop bets.

I have two prop bets — an over and an under pick — for tonight’s NBA action.

The pregame narrative: Ja Morant faces a tough matchup he has struggled in, while Julius Randle should take advantage of the downtrodden Washington Wizards.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 13.

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Best bet: Morant under 6.5 assists (-150)

Morant recently missed time with a shoulder injury, but that didn’t prevent him from firing at will against the Houston Rockets on Thursday.

Coming out of a five-game absence, Morant scored 27 points against Houston on 9-of-22 shooting. He only had three assists, which was his second-lowest total of the season.

Morant’s lowest assist total of the season? That came on Oct. 25, when he had two helpers … against the Rockets.

Given that Morant averages 7.5 assists per game, taking this under with extra juice is typically ill-advised. But Monday’s matchup suggests otherwise.

Houston allows the second-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros, as well as the second-fewest assists overall.

Defensive acumen has been the primary driver of Houston’s stellar season. The Rockets make life difficult on their opponents — especially in the backcourt — and I think Morant will struggle again tonight.

Key stat: Morant has gone under 6.5 assists in five of his past seven games, which includes a matchup against the Rockets.

Quick pick

Randle over 6.5 rebounds (-150): This pick asks for Randle to at least land on his season average (7.0 RPG), and it’s a reasonable play in my view.

Randle and the Minnesota Timberwolves are facing a beaten-down Wizards squad that has lost five of its past six games by 12 or more points. Things are bleak in DC.

The Wizards, who got trounced at home last night, allow the most rebounds per game in the NBA. Positionally, they also allow the most to power forwards.

Randle has cashed this bet in seven of his past 11 games, averaging 7.8 RPG in that span.

Picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 01/13/2025.

Warriors vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Jan. 13: Back RJ Barrett in +380 ticket

Warriors vs. Raptors predictions

On Monday, the Golden State Warriors take on the Toronto Raptors north of the border.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is in full tank mode but I believe there is potential for a lot of points tonight. Therefore, I’ll be taking the over on an alternate total with picks on RJ Barrett and Dennis Schroder in this +380 SGP.

Check out my Warriors vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 13.

Warriors vs. Raptors predictions

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Embed: #106063

Parlay: Over 221.5 points + Barrett over 21.5 points + Schroder under 13.5 points (+380)

Over 221.5 points (-195): Toronto has been losing games and giving up a boatload of points at the same time.

Since Dec. 23, the Raptors are 1-9 SU while allowing 126.9 PPG.

In that span, the over on this total is 7-3, and when it hasn’t hit, it’s been because of the Raptors’ lacklustre offence.

However, Toronto scored 113.0 PPG at home this season, almost four points per game more than on the road (109.3).

Overs are 13-7 at Scotiabank Arena this season, also, which is the second-best home overs record in the NBA, per Team Rankings.

SGP legs

Barrett over 21.5 points (-117): This is a risky pick with how Barrett has been playing, but much like his team, he plays better at home.

And it’s pretty drastic.

  • Home: 27.2 PPG, 51.7/38.7/79.1 shooting
  • Road: 18.9 PPG, 40.8/27.7/60.9 shooting

Some believe he’s struggling due to returning players like Immanuel Quickly taking up shots, but the stats tell me it’s all about the location for Barrett.

He is 10-4 against this line at home this season. In his last game in Toronto, Barrett scored 25 points on 11-of-18 shooting against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Schroder under 13.5 points (-113): This isn’t a line we would’ve seen while Schroder was with the Brooklyn Nets, but he’s settled into a bench role with the Warriors.

In 13 appearances with his new team, Schroder is 2-11 against this line. Toronto provides a good matchup, but the point guard’s ceiling is currently limited.

With Golden State, he’s averaging 9.9 points per game while shooting the ball poorly (33.1%).

Toronto’s defence makes a lot of mistakes but the side has a lot of athletic defenders that can make Schroder’s life tough on Monday.

Anything but an above-average performance would be enough to cash this leg.

Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 01/13/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 13: Fade Austin Reaves and Ja Morant on Monday night

NBA prop bets

Anyone else in a Monday mood? Two of my three NBA prop bets for tonight’s action are fades.

The pregame narrative: Austin Reaves and Ja Morant both face tough matchups that they’ve struggled in before, while Julius Randle should take advantage of the downtrodden Washington Wizards.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 13.

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Best bet: Morant under 6.5 assists (-136)

Morant recently missed time with a shoulder injury, but that didn’t prevent him from firing at will against the Houston Rockets on Thursday.

Coming out of a five-game absence, Morant scored 27 points against Houston on 9-of-22 shooting. He only had three assists, which was his second-lowest total of the season.

Morant’s lowest assist total of the season? That came on Oct. 25, when he had two helpers … against the Rockets.

Given that Morant averages 7.5 assists per game, taking this under with extra juice is typically ill-advised. But Monday’s matchup suggests otherwise.

Houston allows the second-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros, as well as the second-fewest assists overall.

Defensive acumen has been the primary driver of Houston’s stellar season. The Rockets make life difficult on their opponents — especially in the backcourt — and I think Morant will struggle again tonight.

Key stat: Morant has gone under 6.5 assists in five of his past seven games, which includes a matchup against the Rockets.

Quick picks

Randle 8+ rebounds (+117): This pick asks for a full rebound more than Randle’s season average (7.0 RPG), but it’s a reasonable plus-money play in my view.

Randle and the Minnesota Timberwolves are facing a beaten-down Wizards squad that has lost five of its past six games by 12 or more points. Things are bleak in DC.

The Wizards, who got trounced at home last night, allow the most rebounds per game in the NBA. Positionally, they also allow the most to power forwards.

Randle has cashed this bet in six of his past 11 games, averaging 7.8 RPG in that span.

Reaves under 23.5 points/rebounds (-113): Reaves had a five-game stretch from Christmas Day through Jan. 3 where this line would’ve been far too low.

But outside of that heater, the under has been a more successful side this year.

  • Reaves is averaging 18.3 points and 4.3 rebounds (22.6 PR).
  • He’s gone under 23.5 PR in 21/31 games (67.7%).

In a matchup with Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Victor Wembanyama on the court, I’m not sure there’ll be many rebounds on the scrap heap for Reaves to grab.

The Wemby-era Spurs have already proven to be a tough matchup for Reaves, too.

In five games against Wemby’s Spurs, Reaves has hit this under four times while averaging 15.8 points and 4.2 rebounds.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 01/13/2025.

Hornets vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions Jan. 12: Fade offence, but look for Brandon Miller to break through

Hornets vs. Suns predictions

In the final NBA matchup of the night, the Phoenix Suns host the Charlotte Hornets.

The pregame narrative: Sunday’s game in the desert has rock fight potential, as both teams have been hitting unders at a high clip lately. Along with an alt total, this +285 SGP features prop bets on Devin Booker and Brandon Miller.

Check out my Hornets vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 12.

Hornets vs. Suns predictions

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Embed: #106037

Parlay: Under 230.5 points + Booker 6+ assists + Miller over 17.5 points (+285)

Under 230.5 points (-235): Charlotte’s combination of slow pace and inefficient offence has made it the most under-friendly team in the NBA.

  • 29th in offensive rating
  • 22nd in possessions per game
  • Unders are 23-12-0

Phoenix also plays slow (23rd in possessions/game) and is on an ironclad run of unders lately. Since Dec. 15, unders are 10-1-2 in Suns games.

That includes the matchup between these teams last Tuesday, which finished with 219 total points.

Each of the Hornets’ past eight games has finished with 223 total points or fewer. This looks like a safe number to me.

SGP legs

Booker 6+ assists (-360): Booker exploded for 39 points when he faced the Hornets last week, but that wasn’t his only statistical highlight. The standout guard added 10 assists, too.

Though he’s listed as a shooting guard, Booker is actually the Suns’ primary passer. He averages 6.9 assists per game, as well as 12.0 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to shots).

Over his past 11 games, Booker has cashed this bet nine times while averaging 7.9 APG.

Miller over 17.5 points (-132): This is the riskiest leg of the ticket — made even riskier by the alt under — but it really doesn’t feel like much of an ask for Miller.

  • He’s averaging 21.2 PPG on the season.
  • Over his past 16 games, Miller has cashed this bet 14 times.
  • Miller averages 18.3 FGA and 11.0 3PA.

One of Miller’s toughest nights of the season came against the Suns, as he shot just 5-of-16 from the floor and finished with 13 points.

Given that the Suns aren’t known as a particularly strong defensive team (22nd in defensive rating), I’m comfortable chalking that up to a blip on the radar.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. on 01/12/24.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 12: Paolo Banchero, Trey Murphy should stay hot

NBA prop bets

Paolo Banchero looked fantastic in his return to the court two days ago, and now he’s headlining my Sunday NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I like Banchero to clear his points/rebounds/assists prop in a home date against the Philadelphia 76ers. In the same 6 p.m. ET window, I’m backing Jarrett Allen and Trey Murphy to produce.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 12.

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Best bet: Banchero over 29.5 points/rebounds (-118)

After missing 34 games with an oblique injury, Banchero knocked the rust off immediately on Friday night in a triumphant return.

In just 26 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks, Banchero’s stat line suggested he’d hardly skipped a beat:

  • 34 points
  • 7 rebounds
  • 11-of-21 shooting (52.4%)
  • 5-of-8 threes (62.5%)

The Bucks are a top-10 squad in terms of defensive rating. Tonight’s opponents, the 76ers, are a middling 16th in that category.

One risk for Banchero’s overall production is that the Magic and Sixers are two of the three slowest teams in the NBA. A measly 206-point projected total for tonight’s matchup reflects that.

But given how efficient Banchero was in his return — clearing this PR line with just his point total — he hopefully won’t need an excessive volume of opportunities to put up stats.

What really makes this a compelling pick is that Franz Wagner is still out for the Magic. Without his co-star, Banchero tends to run wild.

In 12 career games without Wagner, Banchero has averaged 24.2 points and 7.1 rebounds (31.3 PR).

Key stat: Banchero has the fifth-highest usage rate in the NBA (33.1%), ahead of top-notch scorers like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama.

Quick picks

Murphy over 17.5 points (-108): The New Orleans Pelicans are primarily composed of good-not-great players, and sometimes it’s difficult to discern which one(s) will shine on any given night.

But Murphy looks like that guy right now, and the Pelicans should continue to feed him the ball.

Over his past 12 games, Murphy is averaging 23.7 points. He’s cashed this bet 10 times.

No one in New Orleans attempts more 3s than Murphy (8.6/game), and he’ll likely need to fire away on Sunday against the Boston Celtics. Boston attempts 49.5 threes per game, easily pacing the league.

Murphy has missed the past three games with an ankle sprain but is listed as available for Sunday.

Allen over 24.5 points/rebounds (-112): Like Murphy, Allen is a player who’s hot right now that I’m looking to ride with.

The Cleveland Cavaliers centre has averaged 19.1 points and 11.3 rebounds (30.4 PR) over his past seven games, cashing this bet five times.

What’s been particularly encouraging in that span is Allen’s high floor as a rebounder. The 6-foot-11 centre has nine-plus rebounds in seven consecutive games.

Tonight’s opponents, the Indiana Pacers, allow the ninth-most rebounds per game to centres (15.7), per Betting Pros. If Allen hovers around the double-digit mark for rebounds, he should do enough as a scorer to cash this.

Picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 01/12/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 12: Paolo Banchero, Trey Murphy should stay hot

NBA prop bets

Paolo Banchero looked fantastic in his return to the court two days ago, and now he’s headlining my Sunday NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I like Banchero to clear his points/rebounds/assists prop in a home date against the Philadelphia 76ers. In the same 6 p.m. ET window, I’m backing Jarrett Allen and Trey Murphy to produce.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 12.

NBA prop bets

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Embed: #106028

Best bet: Banchero 35+ points/rebounds/assists (-121)

After missing 34 games with an oblique injury, Banchero knocked the rust off immediately on Friday night in a triumphant return.

In just 26 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks, Banchero’s stat line suggested he’d hardly skipped a beat:

  • 34 points
  • 7 rebounds
  • 3 assists
  • 11-of-21 shooting (52.4%)
  • 5-of-8 threes (62.5%)

The Bucks are a top-10 squad in terms of defensive rating. Tonight’s opponents, the 76ers, are a middling 16th in that category.

One risk for Banchero’s overall production is that the Magic and Sixers are two of the three slowest teams in the NBA. A measly 206-point projected total for tonight’s matchup reflects that.

But given how efficient Banchero was in his return — nearly clearing this PRA line with just his point total — he hopefully won’t need an excessive volume of opportunities to put up stats.

What really makes this a compelling pick is that Franz Wagner is still out for the Magic. Without his co-star, Banchero tends to run wild.

In 12 career games without Wagner, Banchero has averaged 24.2 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists (36.9 PRA).

Key stat: Banchero has the fifth-highest usage rate in the NBA (33.1%), ahead of top-notch scorers like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama.

Quick picks

Murphy over 17.5 points (-114): The New Orleans Pelicans are primarily composed of good-not-great players, and sometimes it’s difficult to discern which one(s) will shine on any given night.

But Murphy looks like that guy right now, and the Pelicans should continue to feed him the ball.

Over his past 12 games, Murphy is averaging 23.7 points. He’s cashed this bet 10 times.

No one in New Orleans attempts more 3s than Murphy (8.6/game), and he’ll likely need to fire away on Sunday against the Boston Celtics. Boston attempts 49.5 threes per game, easily pacing the league.

Murphy has missed the past three games with an ankle sprain but is listed as available for Sunday.

Allen over 24.5 points/rebounds (-107): Like Murphy, Allen is a player who’s hot right now that I’m looking to ride with.

The Cleveland Cavaliers centre has averaged 19.1 points and 11.3 rebounds (30.4 PR) over his past seven games, cashing this bet five times.

What’s been particularly encouraging in that span is Allen’s high floor as a rebounder. The 6-foot-11 centre has nine-plus rebounds in seven consecutive games.

Tonight’s opponents, the Indiana Pacers, allow the ninth-most rebounds per game to centres (15.7), per Betting Pros. If Allen hovers around the double-digit mark for rebounds, he should do enough as a scorer to cash this.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 01/12/2025.

Heat vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 11: Look for Portland to cover, Simons to shine in +290 SGP

Heat vs. Trail Blazers predictions

In Saturday’s NBA nightcap, the Portland Trail Blazers host the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: Portland is stacking plenty of losses this season, but its ATS record is relatively strong. I like the Blazers to cover an alt spread, and I’m backing Anfernee Simons alongside Tyler Herro in the prop market.

Check out my Heat vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 11.

Heat vs. Trail Blazers predictions

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Embed: #105975

Parlay: Trail Blazers +8.5 + Simons over 4.5 assists + Herro over 22.5 points (+290)

Trail Blazers +8.5 (-240): Portland is closer to the top of the draft lottery than it is to a play-in spot, but the team hasn’t totally quit on what looks like a lost season.

The Trail Blazers have rattled off four ATS victories in a row — all as underdogs — and have covered this number in seven of their past eight.

Miami earned a surprising road win over the Golden State Warriors this past Tuesday, but the team is still in a slump overall.

In their past nine games, the Heat have three outright losses as favourites, and they’ve only covered this number twice.

Oh, and Miami is 1-6 ATS as a road favourite this year. Portland, meanwhile, is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog, per Team Rankings.

SGP legs

Simons over 4.5 assists (-165): Simons takes more shots and scores more points for Portland than anyone else. But he’s also the team’s leading passer.

His 5.1 assists per game isn’t a staggering total, but it means he’s good for this over more often than not.

  • Simons has cashed this bet in 21/34 games (61.8%).
  • He has 5+ assists in 15/19 games since Nov. 27.

Simons hasn’t faced the Heat yet this season, but tonight’s matchup should be a good one for him. Miami allows the eighth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.5/game), according to Betting Pros.

Herro over 22.5 points (-130): With or without Jimmy Butler, Herro has been the Heat’s primary scoring option this year. The sixth-year guard seems to have found a new ceiling as a scorer.

  • After three straight seasons averaging between 20.0 and 21.0 PPG, Herro is up to a career-high 23.6 PPG this year.
  • Herro is on track for career-best marks in FG%, eFG%, 3PT%, 3PA and FTA.

Over his past 15 games, Herro has cashed this bet nine times. And in 14 games without Butler, he’s averaging 23.2 PPG.

Portland allows the third-most points to opposing point guards (26.2/game).

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET 01/11/2025

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 11: Bet on Edwards to stay hot, Jaquez to relish expanded role

NBA prop bets

There are only four NBA games on Saturday, and my focus is on the two late ones.

The pregame narrative: In Minnesota, I like Anthony Edwards to continue firing at will from the 3-point line — but Zach Edey looks like a fade. And in Portland, look for visiting forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. to continue to produce from a starting role.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 11.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Jaquez over 18.5 points/assists (-112)

The Miami Heat are beginning to see what life is like without Jimmy Butler, and for an inexperienced player like Jaquez, the future is now.

The 2023 first-round draftee has stepped back into a starting role in the past three games and handled himself quite well:

  • Jan. 6 (at Kings): 16 points, 10 assists
  • Jan. 7 (at Warriors): 18 points, 1 assist
  • Jan. 9 (at Jazz): 20 points, 7 assists

In that span, Jaquez is shooting 55.3% from the floor and 40.0% from 3-point range (on 3.3 attempts/game).

Though he’s only averaging 9.5 points and 2.7 assists (12.2 PA) on the season, it’s not fair to use those numbers as a yardstick for Jaquez tonight. He sees more opportunities as a starter, naturally, and that puts this prop line within his range.

In seven starts this year, Jaquez has averaged 15.0 points and 3.7 assists (18.7 PA).

The Portland Trail Blazers should be a good matchup for Jaquez to stay hot. Portland ranks 26th in defensive rating and allows the fourth-highest opponent field goal percentage (47.7%).

Also, opposing small forwards average 4.4 assists against Portland (fourth-most in the NBA), per Betting Pros.

Key stat: Jaquez has gone over 18.5 points/assists in five of seven starts this year.

Quick picks

Edey under 14.5 points/rebounds (-118): After missing a couple of games due to migraine issues, Zach Edey has yet to bounce back in the box score.

Tonight’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves likely won’t make life any easier on him.

Minnesota is a lock-down defensive squad, holding opponents to the fourth-fewest points and eighth-fewest rebounds per game.

The T-Wolves have defended the paint particularly well in recent games, too. Their tied for the third-fewest opponent points in the paint over their past 15 games.

Edey has gone under this total in three of four games since his return, averaging 5.5 points and 4.8 rebounds. The 7-foot-4 Canadian is still favoured to win Rookie of the Year, but that doesn’t mean he’s in for a big night on Saturday.

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-134): Edwards is a volume shooter from beyond the arc, and the Memphis Grizzlies seem to encourage that sort of behaviour.

Memphis’ opponents attempt 39.6 threes per game, which is the fourth-most in the NBA. That has only equated to a 34.3% shooting percentage, but I still think this makes sense as a volume play.

  • Edwards has attempted 11+ threes in four straight games, cashing this bet each time.
  • He’s averaging 4.3 threes on a career-high 10.0 attempts this year.

Last game, Edwards went 4-of-11 from deep against the Orlando Magic, who allow a league-low 30.9 attempted threes per game.

Edwards might just be matchup-proof.

Picks made at 11:49 a.m. ET on 01/11/2025.

Raptors vs. Pistons same-game parlay predictions Jan. 11: Bet on Barnes, Duren in +500 SGP

Raptors vs. Pistons predictions

Saturday night’s NBA slate features the Detroit Pistons hosting the Toronto Raptors.

The pregame narrative: Detroit has fared well against Toronto lately, and I expect that trend to continue in a win for the home team. Scottie Barnes and Jalen Duren props round out this +500 ticket.

Check out my Raptors vs. Pistons same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 11.

Raptors vs. Pistons predictions

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Parlay: Pistons -1.5 + Barnes over 19.5 points + Duren over 11.5 points (+500)

Pistons -1.5 (-182): The Raptors might not be winning many games, but they know how to put on a good tank. And with this year’s draft class, who can blame them?

Toronto used to have one of the top ATS records in the league. The team’s current ATS record (21-16-1) is still nothing to sneeze at, but it’s tapered off since the start of the season.

  • First 16 games: 11-5-0 ATS
  • Past 14 games: 4-10-0 ATS

The Pistons have been one of this year’s pleasant surprises thus far. They currently sit in eighth place in the Eastern Conference with a .500 record (19-19). Last season, no team was worse, as Detroit finished dead last in the NBA with a .171 winning percentage.

Detroit is 8-2 in its last 10 games with impressive victories over the Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves, covering the spread in all three.

The Raptors have gone four straight meetings versus the Pistons without victory, and with the current states of each team, I don’t see them snapping the streak tonight.

SGP legs

Duren over 11.5 points (-108): Duren’s production has dipped a touch from last season, but I still like him to have a good night in a plus matchup.

Toronto has struggled against opposing bigs all season, and its recent games have shown no improvement:

  • Jarrett Allen (Jan. 9): 18 points, 8-of-9 shooting
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (Jan. 8): 27 points, 9-of-14 shooting
  • Brook Lopez (Jan. 6): 16 points, 6-of-10 shooting

Duren has seen his minutes increase over the past three weeks, averaging north of 27 minutes per game, largely due to his quality of play on the court.

He’s also cleared this mark in his previous four games against Toronto, averaging 16.75 PPG over that stretch.

The Raptors allow the sixth-most points per game to opposing centres (23.5), per Betting Pros.

Barnes over 19.5 points (-106): Since returning from injury, Barnes has proven why he’s the face of the franchise.

The fourth-year forward has averaged 22.3 PPG over his last nine games, shooting 53.0% from the floor over that stretch.

In a rebuilding year for the Raps, it’s encouraging to see Barnes is still playing with confidence and aggression — even when the team results don’t follow.

Detroit allows the seventh-most points per game to opposing power forwards (23.4).

In Barnes’ previous two games versus the Pistons, he finished with 22 and 31 points, respectively, averaging 36.5 minutes per game.

Picks made at 11:44 a.m. ET on 01/11/2025.