NBA Archives - Page 100 of 146

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 31: Back Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant on Friday

Two future Hall of Famers and an all-star snub headline Friday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic is on a roll and should clear a modest assist total against the Philadelphia 76ers. Elsewhere, I like Kevin Durant to fill the basket against his old team and Norman Powell to produce.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 31.

Best NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #108121

Best bet: Jokic over 9.5 assists (-143)

I don’t typically like to pay this much juice but feel this line will only get less profitable as the day goes on.

Jokic is at the peak of his powers and is one of the league’s best facilitators:

10.1 APG (second-most in NBA)
9+ assists in 12/13 games this month
10+ assists in 10/13 games this month

His floor as a passer is sky-high and he draws a solid matchup against Philadelphia. The 76ers allow the eighth-most assists per game (27.2) and Jokic logged 10 helpers against them back on Jan. 21.

He only played 30 minutes and the Denver Nuggets won that game 144-109, so there is a blowout possibility this evening.

But that was in Denver and this is in Philadelphia, so I’m hoping the Sixers (9.5-point underdogs) can keep this somewhat close.

And either way, this line is within reach even with limited minutes.

Key stat: Jokic has 10-plus assists in seven of his last eight games.

Quick picks

Powell over 22.5 points (-105): Powell should be playing in this year’s all-star game.

The veteran guard is averaging a career-best 24.0 PPG with 49.4/43.5/84.6 shooting splits. He’s the main reason the Los Angeles Clippers remained competitive with Kawhi Leonard sidelined and has kept scoring since the Klaw returned.

Powell has scored at least 20 points in eight of nine games with Leonard, clearing this mark five times.

He’s still attempting 16.3 shots per game with Leonard in the lineup (17.0 without), which gives us a solid floor to work with.

The Charlotte Hornets have done well to limit shooting guards this year but Powell is playing with a chip on his shoulder and I expect another strong night.

He’s cleared this mark in four of his last five games.

Durant over 26.5 points (-125): Father Time is undefeated but Durant is giving him the business right now.

The 36-year-old averages 27.3 points per game (fifth-most in the NBA) with a 29.7% usage rate. The latter ranks 18th, ahead of players like Jokic, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brunson.

He’s playing a ton. He’s shooting a ton. And he’s making a ton — that’s what any overs bettor wants to see.

And now Durant gets to go up against a Golden State Warriors team with the second-worst mid-range defence in the league (46.7 FG% allowed), according to Cleaning the Glass.

KD takes 57% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 100th percentile of all NBA players.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 01/31/2025.

Bucks vs. Spurs prop picks Jan. 31: Fade Victor Wembanyama and Khris Middleton

Two of the most talented bigs in the NBA — Victor Wembanyama and Giannis Antetokounmpo — will share the court tonight as the San Antonio Spurs host the Milwaukee Bucks.

The pregame narrative: Wembanyama is blossoming into a superstar, but there are still justifiable reasons to bet the under on his prop markets. I’m backing a Wemby under tonight, along with predictions for Khris Middleton and Harrison Barnes.

Check out my Bucks vs. Spurs prop picks for Jan. 31.

Bucks vs. Spurs prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #108122

Best bet: Wembanyama under 15.5 rebounds/assists (-108)

In practically every way, Wembanyama’s sophomore season has been an improvement over a remarkable Rookie of the Year campaign.

He’s playing more minutes. He’s shooting more efficiently. And his rebounding and steals numbers are up, while his turnover numbers are down.

But even with all of that said, I can’t automatically select overs on Wembanyama whenever I peruse his prop markets. Some lines are a bit too lofty, and this is one of them.

Wembanyama has 10+ rebounds in six straight games, which is his longest streak of the season. Even so, he only went over 15.5 rebounds/assists twice in those matchups.

He’s hit this under in 12/18 games since Dec. 19.

On the season, Wembanyama is averaging 14.5 reb/ast.

In the first week of January, Wembanyama had 41 rebounds in a two-game span. So it’s possible that he goes nuclear on the boards and ruins my bet that way.

But I don’t see it against the Milwaukee Bucks, who allow the 10th-fewest rebounds to opposing centres, per Betting Pros.

Milwaukee also allows the fifth-fewest assists to centres.

Key stat: Wemby has gone under 15.5 RA in both career games against the Bucks. That includes a matchup on Jan. 8 (10 rebounds, one assist).

Quick picks

Middleton under 11.5 points (-112): As recently as the 2021-22 season, Middleton was an all-star averaging 20.1 PPG.

His numbers dipped a bit in the two seasons that followed, and now he’s out of the starting lineup while averaging his lowest scoring total since his rookie year (11.9 PPG).

Middleton has played nine consecutive games off the bench, averaging just 10.8 PPG in that span — despite a blistering 55.1% FG rate. He’s been held scoreless in two of his past three.

I can’t trust this guy right now, and certainly not in this matchup. The Spurs, who held Middleton to eight points earlier this month, allow the fourth-fewest points to opposing small forwards.

Barnes over 1.5 threes (-118): I was originally eyeing the over on Barnes’ points prop (12.5), but I think this is a simpler way to back a guy who’s been ultra-efficient from deep recently.

Over his past 13 games, Barnes is shooting 44.8% from 3-point range, averaging 2.0 makes.

He’s canned 2+ threes in three straight games, as well as 8/13 since Dec. 29.

Barnes went over 1.5 threes when he faced the Spurs earlier this month, and he deserves enough looks to hit the over again.

San Antonio allows the 11th-most made 3s in the NBA.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET 01/16/2025.

Rockets vs. Grizzlies same-game parlay predictions Jan. 30: Back the Grizzlies, Bane and Green at +300

The Houston Rockets continue their road trip with a game against the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The Rockets are at a tough spot in their schedule and I expect the offensively-minded Grizzlies to take advantage and walk away with the win. I’m adding prop picks on Desmond Bane and Jalen Green to make up this +300 SGP.

Check out my Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions for Jan. 30.

Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Parlay: Grizzlies moneyline + Bane over 17.5 points + Green over 2.5 assists (+350)

Grizzlies moneyline (-210): Houston is rolling right now, going 8-2 over its last 10 games, but tonight provides a tough situational matchup.

Memphis is a strong home team, holding a 19-5 record at FedEx Forum. The side also owns arguably the most electric offence in the NBA.

103.8 possessions/game (1st)
123.3 points/game (1st)
48.6 field goal % (t-5th)

That feels like a big obstacle to overcome for the Rockets who are playing their fourth road game in six nights.

Memphis is coming off a 143-106 blowout loss to the New York Knicks and should be motivated to get a better result at home with a clear rest advantage.

Other SGP legs

Bane over 17.5 points (-120): Bane is having a down year in terms of production. He is averaging 17.7 points, his lowest total since his rookie season.

However, this is still a very achievable line for the dynamic guard.

Since Dec. 21, Bane has cleared this line in 15-of-18 games, averaging 21.2 points on 54.1% from the field and 44.5% from the 3-point range.

In the two games where he finished with less than 18 points, he totalled 16 twice and 17 once so his scoring floor is very reliable.

He has good shooting splits for the season (49.7/38.8/86.0) but the issue’s been a lack of volume more often than not.

Green over 2.5 assists (-156): Green has been upping his game as a passer.

Since Jan. 9, the shooting guard had three or more assists in eight of 10 games. In his last appearance against the Atlanta Hawks, he finished with zero helpers but I’m jumping right back on the wagon.

With Jaren Jackson Jr. patrolling the paint for Memphis (3.0 steals/blocks per game), I envision Green tapping back into that playmaking role that’s been successful in January.

According to 3stepsbasket.com, Memphis is an above-average team defending the rim, holding opponents 55.8% in the paint.

That should deter Green from slashing to the basket, leading to more passing out of the pick and roll and on the perimeter.

Picks made at 10:23 a.m. ET on 01/30/2025.

Rockets vs. Grizzlies same-game parlay predictions Jan. 30: Back the Grizzlies, Bane and Green at +300

The Houston Rockets continue their road trip with a game against the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The Rockets are at a tough spot in their schedule and I expect the offensively-minded Grizzlies to take advantage and walk away with the win. I’m adding prop picks on Desmond Bane and Jalen Green to make up this +300 SGP.

Check out my Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions for Jan. 30.

Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Embed: #107955

Parlay: Grizzlies moneyline + Bane over 16.5 points + Green over 2.5 assists (+300)

Grizzlies moneyline (-195): Houston is rolling right now, going 8-2 over its last 10 games, but tonight provides a tough situational matchup.

Memphis is a strong home team, holding a 19-5 record at FedEx Forum. The side also owns arguably the most electric offence in the NBA.

103.8 possessions/game (1st)
123.3 points/game (1st)
48.6 field goal % (t-5th)

That feels like a big obstacle to overcome for the Rockets who are playing their fourth road game in six nights.

Memphis is coming off a 143-106 blowout loss to the New York Knicks and should be motivated to get a better result at home with a clear rest advantage.

Other SGP legs

Bane over 16.5 points (-130): Bane is having a down year in terms of production. He is averaging 17.7 points, his lowest total since his rookie season.

However, this is still a very achievable line for the dynamic guard.

Since Dec. 21, Bane has cleared this line in 16-of-18 games, averaging 21.2 points on 54.1% from the field and 44.5% from the 3-point range.

In the two games where he finished with less than 17 points, he totalled exactly 16 so his scoring floor is very reliable.

He has good shooting splits for the season (49.7/38.8/86.0) but the issue’s been a lack of volume more often than not. When Bane takes 10-plus shots this season, he’s 20-8 against this wager.

Green over 2.5 assists (-180): Green has been upping his game as a passer.

Since Jan. 9, the shooting guard had three or more assists in eight of 10 games. In his last appearance against the Atlanta Hawks, he finished with zero helpers but I’m jumping right back on the wagon.

With Jaren Jackson Jr. patrolling the paint for Memphis (3.0 steals/blocks per game), I envision Green tapping back into that playmaking role that’s been successful in January.

According to 3stepsbasket.com, Memphis is an above-average team defending the rim, holding opponents 55.8% in the paint.

That should deter Green from slashing to the basket, leading to more passing out of the pick and roll and on the perimeter.

Picks made at 10:23 a.m. ET on 01/30/2025.

Lakers vs. Wizards same-game parlay predictions Jan. 30: Bet on Kyle Kuzma, Max Christie in +370 SGP

The Washington Wizards look to snap a mile-long losing streak on Thursday night in a home matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers.

The pregame narrative: In spite of a notable injury for the Lakers, I still expect them to win by at least a handful of points. I also have prop bets on Max Christie and Kyle Kuzma to round out this +370 ticket.

Check out my Lakers vs. Wizards same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 30.

Lakers vs. Wizards predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #107963

Parlay: Lakers -4.5 + Christie over 1.5 threes + Kuzma over 6.5 rebounds (+370)

Lakers -4.5 (-235): No one expected great things from the Wizards this season. Even so, their spiral has been staggering.

Washington is on a 15-game losing streak — the team’s second losing streak of 15-plus games this year — to sink to 6-40 overall.

Awful teams can still excel against the spread though, right? Well … that’s not the case here either. Washington is 17-27-2 ATS (38.6%) on the year and 2-5 ATS when playing on zero rest.

I don’t expect much out of the Wizards on the second leg of a back-to-back. They scored 82 points at home last night in a 24-point loss to the Toronto Raptors.

On Jan. 21, the Lakers won comfortably over the Wizards out west, 111-88.

Other SGP legs

Christie over 1.5 threes (-148): Christie takes the majority of his shots from beyond the arc, and now that he’s seeing starter minutes, this should be an attainable prop on a nightly basis.

Splitting Christie’s season in half, we can notice the uptick in his 3-point shot volume and production:

First 22 games (1 start): 18.9 minutes, 2.0 3PA, 29.5 3PT%

Past 22 games (22 starts): 30.7 minutes, 5.0 3PA, 39.1 3PT%

The third-year guard has cashed this bet in 12 of his past 17 games and draws a dream matchup tonight.

Washington allows the most 3s per game to its opponents (14.5) at a solid shooting clip (36.4%).

Kuzma over 6.5 rebounds (-127): I love this as a straight wager with Anthony Davis (11.9 RPG) ruled out for the Lakers.

Kuzma, a former Laker, should be able to fill the void and grab some rebounds that AD isn’t around for.

Last night, Kuzma had 10 rebounds for Washington. He now has 7+ rebounds in 5/6 games since Jan. 19, averaging 8.3 rebounds in that span.

Kuzma has 7+ rebounds in all six career games vs. the Lakers, including a nine-rebound performance last week.

Is this still a revenge game for Kuzma, given that he’s played as many seasons in Washington (four) as he did in Los Angeles? I’m not sure, but I know he’s capable of cashing this over.

Picks made at 10:15 a.m. on 01/30/25.

Magic vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions Jan. 30: Back Portland ATS, Deni Avdija at +280

The Portland Trail Blazers host the Orlando Magic for Thursday’s NBA nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Orlando is struggling and Portland is surging. This +270 SGP features the Trail Blazers to cover an alternate spread at home, alongside prop bets on Deni Avdija and Franz Wagner.

Check out my Magic vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 30.

Magic vs. Trail Blazers predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #107962

Parlay: Trail Blazers +10.5 + Avdija over 16.5 points + Wagner over 1.5 threes (+280)

Trail Blazers +10.5 (-335): Portland has won five of its last six games — including a 101-79 drumming of the Magic in Orlando on Jan. 23 — so banking 10.5 points seems safe.

The Blazers have been a solid ATS this season with a 12-8-0 record as a home underdog. In those games, they own a -6.6 average margin of victory, which is comfortably inside this number.

Orlando, meanwhile, has hit the ditch even with its stars back in the lineup.

The Magic have lost eight of their last 10 and have failed to win by 10-plus points in 27 straight games. They also are 9-15-0 ATS on the road.

Other SGP legs

Avdija over 16.5 points (-132): Maybe Avdija is having a moment, or maybe it’s the start of something greater — either way, the fifth-year forward is on a tear.

Check out his numbers since being re-inserted into the starting lineup on Dec. 28:

18.9 PPG
50.5 FG%
17+ points in 9/14 games

The 2020 No. 9 overall pick never got rolling with the Washington Wizards but has been an impact player in his first year with the Blazers.

Avdija is coming off two huge games, scoring 28 and 30 points, respectively, against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks.

I’ll back him to stay hot.

Wagner over 1.5 threes (-139): I spoke about this in today’s top NBA prop bets and will double-dip in this SGP.

Wagner makes his fourth start since returning from an oblique injury and doesn’t appear to be on a minutes restriction.

He’s played 30 and 40 minutes in his last two games and has cleared this line twice:

Jan. 27 vs. Miami: 2-for-10 from deep
Jan. 25 vs. Detroit: 4-for-8 from deep

I love this play from a volume standpoint alone but it’s still nice to know Portland has the sixth-worst 3-point defence (37.2%) in the NBA.

Picks made at 9:49 a.m. on 01/30/25.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 30: Back Austin Reaves, Franz Wagner and Evan Mobley on Thursday

I’ve got three prop bets for Thursday’s NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Austin Reaves gets an A-plus matchup against the Washington Wizards and is a good bet to stuff the stat sheet. Elsewhere, back Evan Mobley to score and Franz Wagner to hit a pair of triples.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 30.

Best NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #107936

Best bet: Reaves over 31.5 points/rebounds/assists (-122)

Reaves is in a bit of a lull right now but gets a slump-buster with Washington.

The Wizards are a truly dreadful team that has been dominated by shooting guards this season. Here is what they allow to the position on a per-game basis, according to Betting Pros:

23.54 points (4th-most)
6.67 rebounds (6th-most)
5.62 assists (3rd-most)

Washington also ranks last in defensive rating and 26th in opponent field goal percentage (47.7%).

Reaves has fallen under this number in five of his last six games but still shot a respectable 47.1% from the field in that span. On the whole, he’s been very productive since returning from injury on Dec. 13.

19.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 7.3 APG
30+ PRA in 11/21 games

With Anthony Davis sidelined, I expect Reaves to be the No. 2 option on a Los Angeles Lakers team needing wins.

Key stat: Reaves has cleared this mark in nine of his last 19 games.

Quick picks

Mobley over 17.5 points (-112): This seems like a light line for Mobley.

The fourth-year power forward is enjoying the best scoring season of his career (18.2 PPG) and draws a solid matchup against the Atlanta Hawks.

Atlanta has the 19th-ranked mid-range defence, according to Cleaning the Glass, and Mobley takes plenty of shots from that area of the court.

The Hawks also play at the second-fastest pace, which is a boon for betting overs.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are on a back-to-back but that doesn’t phase me.

Mobley played 32 minutes in his last back-to-back (Jan. 9 vs. Toronto) and scored 21 points on 63.6% shooting. He’s cleared this mark in three straight games with no rest.

Wagner over 1.5 threes (-139): Wagner is playing in his fourth game since suffering an oblique injury in early December, and the early results are encouraging.

He was limited to just 24 minutes in his return but played 30 and 40 minutes after that, clearing this line in both games while averaging nine 3-point attempts.

That type of volume alone makes this enticing.

Now consider he’s playing the Portland Trail Blazers, who have the sixth-worst 3-point defence (37.2%) in the NBA.

This is a smash spot.

Picks made at 8:31 a.m. ET on 01/30/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 29: Bet on Victor Wembanyama, fade Julius Randle

Victor Wembanyama and Julius Randle are featured in my NBA prop bets for Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Wemby always sees a high line on his blocks prop, but tonight it comes with a price (and a matchup) that entices me. Elsewhere, I expect Randle’s shooting woes to continue against the Phoenix Suns.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 29.

Best NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Randle under 1.5 threes (-112)

Randle had one of the best games of his season when he last faced the Suns, amassing 35 points on 11-of-20 shooting — including a 5-of-11 clip from 3-point range.

But that was back in mid-November, and I won’t let one game overshadow the rough stretch Randle is currently on.

Here’s what Randle has accomplished beyond the arc since Jan. 4 (13 games):

0.8 3PM
4.2 3PA
18.5 3PT%
2+ threes in 1/13 games

The ex-Knick is coming off a 3-for-8 effort from deep on Monday. But that was his first time hitting over 1.5 threes in more than three weeks.

Yes, he torched the Suns when he last faced them, but they aren’t a particularly enticing matchup. Phoenix allows the 13th-lowest 3PT% and the 15th-fewest attempted 3s in the NBA.

Randle is attempting 4.7 threes per night this season, and the way he’s shooting it right now, it’s best to side with this under.

Key stat: Randle has gone under 1.5 threes in 30 of 46 games (65.2%).

Quick pick

Wembanyama over 3.5 blocks (+115): This is a Wemby-sized line that should be attainable for the Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner.

Wembanyama paces the NBA in blocks (3.9/game) and has swatted 12 shots across his two matchups against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Since Dec. 15, the second-year superstar has cashed this bet in 10 of 18 matchups, averaging 4.7 blocks in that span.

L.A.’s opponents only average 4.7 total blocks, which are the 12th-fewest in the NBA. But Wemby changes the equation.

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 01/29/2025.

Raptors vs. Wizards predictions Jan. 29: Fade the Wizards, back Scottie Barnes on Wednesday

The Washington Wizards host the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors head to the U.S. capital in solid defensive form. Therefore, I am backing the Wizards to go under their team total. I’m also betting on Scottie Barnes to stuff the stat sheet.

Check out my Raptors vs. Wizards predictions for Jan. 29.

Raptors vs. Wizards predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Best bet: Wizards under 111.5 total points (-108)

As wild as it may seem, the Raptors are currently one of the best defensive teams in the league. Here are their stats since Jan. 13:

6-1 record
2nd in defensive rating (105.4)
3rd in opponent FG% (43.4)

It’s an insane turnaround for a team that once was at the centre of the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.

Barnes and Davion Mitchell are playing elite defence, and opposing guards are struggling to find success with their perimeter shooting.

The Raps should have no trouble defending a dreadful Wizards team, which possesses the league’s lowest offensive rating (104.8).

Washington is on a 14-game losing streak and stands as the worst team in the league — and it’s not even close. Meanwhile, the Raptors are on the rise, at least defensively.

Key stat: The Wizards have gone under 111.5 points in five straight games.

Quick pick

Barnes over 15.5 rebounds/assists (-130): Barnes has been putting up impressive numbers in recent games.

Since Jan. 13, the Raptors star is averaging 8.4 rebounds and 7.3 assists. He’s cashed this prop in four of his last five matchups.

Barnes gets a tasty matchup with the Wizards, who allow 17.5 RA on average to power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Furthermore, with rookie centre Alex Sarr ruled out for Wednesday, the Wizards will have further issues defending the paint.

Barnes was recently named the Eastern Conference Player of the Week for his impressive stretch of play.

Picks made at 11:23 a.m. ET on 01/29/2025.

Raptors vs. Wizards predictions Jan. 29: Fade the Wizards, back Scottie Barnes on Wednesday

The Washington Wizards host the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors head to the U.S. capital in solid defensive form. Therefore, I am backing the Wizards to go under their team total. I’m also betting on Scottie Barnes to stuff the stat sheet.

Check out my Raptors vs. Wizards predictions for Jan. 29.

Raptors vs. Wizards predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Embed: #107859

Best bet: Wizards under 111.5 total points (-108)

As wild as it may seem, the Raptors are currently one of the best defensive teams in the league. Here are their stats since Jan. 13:

6-1 record
2nd in defensive rating (105.4)
3rd in opponent FG% (43.4)

It’s an insane turnaround for a team that once was at the centre of the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.

Barnes and Davion Mitchell are playing elite defence, and opposing guards are struggling to find success with their perimeter shooting.

The Raps should have no trouble defending a dreadful Wizards team, which possesses the league’s lowest offensive rating (104.8).

Washington is on a 14-game losing streak and stands as the worst team in the league — and it’s not even close. Meanwhile, the Raptors are on the rise, at least defensively.

Key stat: The Wizards have gone under 111.5 points in five straight games.

Quick pick

Barnes over 15.5 rebounds/assists (-127): Barnes has been putting up impressive numbers in recent games.

Since Jan. 13, the Raptors star is averaging 8.4 rebounds and 7.3 assists. He’s cashed this prop in four of his last five matchups.

Barnes gets a tasty matchup with the Wizards, who allow 17.5 RA on average to power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Furthermore, with rookie centre Alex Sarr ruled out for Wednesday, the Wizards will have further issues defending the paint.

Barnes was recently named the Eastern Conference Player of the Week for his impressive stretch of play.

Picks made at 11:23 a.m. ET on 01/29/2025.