Category: NBA

Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors host the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: I’ve got a Curry prop bet and a Warriors alt spread in my +285 SGP for this matchup. From the Thunder’s side, Isaiah Hartenstein is a capable rebounder worth backing.

Check out my Thunder vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 29.

Thunder vs. Warriors predictions

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Parlay: Warriors +13.5 + Curry over 29.5 points/rebounds/assists + Hartenstein over 11.5 rebounds (+285)

Warriors +13.5 (-186): Backing the Warriors to cover might seem like a tough sell on a back-to-back, but it’s important to apply some context regarding how Golden State played its cards.

The Warriors sat Steph Curry last night, which has become common practice when the schedule gets squishy. The 36-year-old guard has now rested for a game in five straight back-to-backs.

With their star expected back on the court tonight, I think the Warriors can cover this hefty spread.

• OKC has failed to cover three consecutive double-digit spreads.

• Golden State is 1-0-1 ATS vs. OKC this year (including an upset win).

• The Warriors have covered a +13.5 spread in nine of their past 10 games.

Golden State has been a so-so ATS squad this year (22-23-1), but it rarely has this much cushion to work with — especially at home.

Other SGP legs

Curry over 29.5 points/rebounds/assists (-230): As mentioned, Curry rested last night and is expected to draw back in for this marquee matchup.

Assuming that happens, he should be able to clear this fairly modest PRA line.

• Curry averages 33.5 PRA on the season.

• He’s amassed 30+ PRA in 10/14 games since Christmas Day.

In his lone game against the Thunder this season, which was back in November, Curry dazzled with 36 points (7-of-13 from deep), five rebounds and seven assists.

Hartenstein over 11.5 rebounds (+108): Hartenstein returned from a five-game absence on Sunday and immediately reclaimed a full workload. Against the Trail Blazers, he finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds in 33 minutes.

When healthy, the 7-footer has provided exactly what the Thunder had been missing: size and rebounding acumen.

Playing roughly 30 minutes per game, the ex-Knick is averaging a career-high 12.2 rebounds. No other active OKC player is averaging even half that volume.

In November, Hartenstein snagged a game-high 14 boards against the Warriors. He cashed this bet in 15 of 25 games.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 01/29/25.

Two championship-hopeful teams meet in the Big Apple as the Denver Nuggets visit the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: Both the Nuggets and Knicks can score at will but leave something to be desired on the defensive end. I’m taking the over on an alternate total along with player props on Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby in this +380 SGP.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Knicks same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 29.

Nuggets vs. Knicks predictions

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Parlay: Over 234.5 points + Towns over 12.5 rebounds + Anunoby over 1.5 threes (+380)

Over 234.5 points (-200): This is a lofty alternate total but there’s good reason for it.

• Denver scores the third-most points per game (120.6)

• New York falls just behind, scoring the fourth-most PPG (117.8).

Additionally, both sides rank in the bottom half of the NBA for defensive rating.

The Nuggets play at the third-fastest pace (99.9 possessions/game). As a result, Denver is tied for the best overs record in the league (30-16-0), per Team Rankings.

Denver has surpassed this total in six of the past seven games while New York went over this number in two straight and five of its last eight contests.

Other SGP legs

Towns over 12.5 rebounds (-106): This may be the best centre matchup the NBA has to offer.

Nikola Jokic is dominating for the Nuggets, averaging a 30-point triple-double.

Towns is having a fantastic season himself, scoring 24.9 PPG with great efficiency while ranking second in the league as a rebounder (13.8/game).

Jokic plays 36.4 minutes a night and I expect Tom Thibodeau to have Towns out there as much as possible to match.

The Nuggets allow the fifth-most rebounds to opposing centres (16.0/game), per Fantasy Pros.

Towns has 13-plus rebounds in 25 of 42 games this season (59.5%), and he finds himself in an enticing spot on Wednesday.

Anunoby over 1.5 threes (-167): The former Toronto Raptor has been firing on all cylinders lately.

He’s cashed this wager in five of the past six games, averaging 2.3 makes on 5.8 attempts (40.0% shooting).

As I’ve already mentioned, I’m predicting a lot of points tonight. And if that’s the case, there should be an uptick in 3-point volume for Anunoby.

He had a career-high 40 points on 5-of-7 shooting beyond the arc when he last faced Denver on Nov. 25.

Picks made at 10:12 a.m. on 01/29/25.

Victor Wembanyama is the headliner of my Wednesday NBA prop bets, featured alongside two picks from the Minnesota Timberwolves versus Phoenix Suns matchup.

The pregame narrative: Wemby always sees a high line on his steals/blocks prop, but tonight it comes with a price (and a matchup) that entices me. In Phoenix, look for Devin Booker to star and fade Julius Randle.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 29.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Randle under 1.5 threes (-117)

Randle had one of the best games of his season when he last faced the Suns, amassing 35 points on 11-of-20 shooting — including a 5-of-11 clip from 3-point range.

But that was back in mid-November, and I won’t let one game overshadow the rough stretch Randle is currently on.

Here’s what Randle has accomplished beyond the arc since Jan. 4 (13 games):

• 0.8 3PM
• 4.2 3PA
• 18.5 3PT%
• 2+ threes in 1/13 games

The ex-Knick is coming off a 3-for-8 effort from deep on Monday. But that was his first time hitting over 1.5 threes in more than three weeks.

Yes, he torched the Suns when he last faced them, but they aren’t a particularly enticing matchup. Phoenix allows the 13th-lowest 3PT% and the 15th-fewest attempted 3s in the NBA.

Randle is attempting 4.7 threes per night this season, and the way he’s shooting it right now, it’s best to side with this under.

Key stat: Randle has gone under 1.5 threes in 30 of 46 games (65.2%).

Quick picks

Booker over 29.5 points/rebounds (-120): Booker has strung together a bunch of nice scoring performances recently, so getting this line for his points and rebounds total feels like gravy.

• Booker has scored 30+ points in 7/11 games since Jan. 7.

• In that span, he’s averaging 29.2 points and 4.5 rebounds.

Booker went off against the Timberwolves earlier this season, finishing with 44 points (15-of-29 shooting) and six rebounds.

Minnesota isn’t an amazing rebounding matchup overall, but the T-Wolves allow the fourth-most rebounds to opposing shooting guards (6.8), per Betting Pros.

Kevin Durant (thumb) is questionable, and his absence would only make this pick more compelling.

Wembanyama over 4.5 steals/blocks (-103): This is a Wemby-only line for steals/blocks, but I still find myself riding with the over on a semi-regular basis.

The NBA blocks leader (3.9/game) swatted nine shots when he faced the Los Angeles Clippers in November. And he chipped in three steals, too.

Wembanyama’s more recent performance against the Clips was a bit more modest (three blocks, one steal), but he’s still been very reliable against this line in recent games.

Since Dec. 15, the Defensive Player of the Year favourite has cashed this bet in 13 of 18 matchups. He’s averaging 5.7 “stocks” in that span.

The Clippers allow the sixth-most steals per game to opponents, which should help if Wemby falls a bit short on the blocks.

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 01/29/2025.

The Los Angeles Lakers look to claim a five-game win streak on Tuesday night in a road matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Despite L.A.’s rest disadvantage, I like the visiting squad to cover a modest spread as the favourite. I’m also looking for LeBron James and Tyrese Maxey to rack up assists.

Check out my Lakers vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 28.

Lakers vs. 76ers predictions

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Parlay: Lakers -3.5 + LeBron over 7.5 assists + Maxey over 5.5 assists (+275)

Lakers -3.5 (-114): L.A. played last night in Charlotte, while Philly has been off the past two nights. But I’m not worried about the rest disadvantage working against the Lakers.

• The Lakers are 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS when playing on zero rest.

• The 76ers are 5-6 straight up and 2-9 ATS when holding a rest advantage.

If Joel Embiid was playing, this spread would look a lot different and I wouldn’t be so bullish to back the Lakers. But … he’s not.

L.A. has covered this spread in back-to-back games against Philly, including a 116-106 win earlier this season. Embiid had a courtside seat for both matchups.

Overall this season, the Sixers have the NBA’s worst ATS record (15-27-2).

Other SGP legs

LeBron over 7.5 assists (-230): It’s amazing how much the Lakers still ask of 40-year-old LeBron — and he continues to answer.

The King isn’t scoring at quite as high of a clip as he used to, but he’s still remarkably productive across the board. That includes averaging 9.0 assists, which is the third-highest mark of his 22-year career.

• Since Dec. 23, LeBron has 8+ assists in 13/15 games. He’s averaging 9.1 APG in that span.

• Against the 76ers back in November, LeBron had 13 assists as part of a triple-double.

LeBron averages 16.2 potential assists per game, which accounts for all passes that lead directly to a shot. On any given night, I like the odds that at least half of those turn into assists.

Maxey over 5.5 assists (-295): Like LeBron, Maxey is a do-it-all player with a lot of responsibility on his shoulders.

And though he’s taking off as a scorer this season, the point guard still does his part as a passer.

• Since Dec. 23, Maxey has 6+ assists in 14/17 games. He’s averaging 7.3 APG in that span.

• At home, Maxey is averaging 6.3 APG in 16 games.

Though Maxey didn’t play when the Sixers faced the Lakers earlier this year, I like tonight’s matchup for him. L.A. allows the sixth-most assists per game to opposing PGs (9.6), per Betting Pros.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 01/28/25.

I’m keying on tonight’s matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Portland Trail Blazers for two of my three prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo is a walking, breathing 30-piece these days. I expect another nice scoring output from him tonight. Portland’s Toumani Camara also has my attention — as does Amen Thompson in the early slate.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 28.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Giannis over 31.5 points (-105)

Giannis is on an impressively consistent run of hitting the 30-point threshold. In a plus matchup, I like his chances of doing just a little bit more.

Let’s start by highlighting what the Greek Freak has accomplished over his past 20 games, dating back to Dec. 4:

• 30.5 PPG
• 30+ points in 14/20 games
• 59.3 FG%
• 11.0 FTA

The NBA MVP race looks like a two-man competition with Giannis as an outsider, but the two-time award winner is still putting on quite a show leading up to the all-star break.

Now he’ll face the Portland Trail Blazers, who’ve struggled on defence throughout the season:

• 26th in defensive rating
• 23rd in opponent FG%
• 23rd in opponent FTA
• 22nd in opponent PPG

Giannis landed on exactly 31 points when he faced Portland earlier this month in a game where he went 3-for-4 from the free throw line.

Given that the Blazers allow more free throw attempts than most teams — and Giannis averages 11.0 FTA alone — any uptick in that regard should boost his overall scoring potential.

Key stat: Giannis has cashed this bet in 10 of his past 18 games.

Quick picks

Camara over 16.5 points/rebounds (-120): Coming off his best game of the season, and facing a team he’s performed well against recently, I really like this over for Camara.

You might not have heard of Camara, a second-year pro who was one of the final picks of the 2023 draft. But he’s been a starter for the Portland Trail Blazers all year, filling the role of an undersized but athletic big who can shoot.

Two nights ago, Camara went 5-for-5 from deep as part of a 24-point, nine-rebound performance. He’s now cashed this bet in four of his past five games.

And earlier this month (Jan. 4), Camara had 15 points and six rebounds against the Milwaukee Bucks. That’s who he’ll see tonight, and he should remain prominently involved.

Thompson over 28.5 points/rebounds (-109): I’m willing to be a prisoner of the moment with Thompson. Because he’s having quite a moment.

On Monday night, Thompson hit a game-winning floater to knock off the Boston Celtics. That capped off a career-best night for the 21-year-old, who finished with 33 points and nine rebounds.

• Since joining the Houston Rockets starting lineup 10 games ago, Thompson has averaged 19.2 points and 11.5 rebounds.

• The Atlanta Hawks allow the fourth-most points and seventh-most rebounds per game.

It’s not that Atlanta’s defence is particularly poor, but the Hawks tend to play really, really fast. In a game that could turn into a track meet, Thompson looks like a strong pick to hit this over.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 01/28/2025.

Monday’s loaded 12-game NBA slate is headlined by the Los Angeles Clippers visiting the Phoneix Suns.

The pregame narrative: Two Western Conference teams jockeying for position in the standings meet in a marquee matchup. I’m backing the new-look Suns to cover a teased-up spread while adding props on Nick Richards and Kawhi Leonard to make a +285 SGP.

Check out my Clippers vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 27.

Clippers vs. Suns predictions

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Parlay: Suns +4 + Richards over 9.5 rebounds + Leonard over 0.5 steals (+285)

Suns +4 (-152): Phoneix made a trade for big man Richards and it’s made an instant impact.

Since the trade with the Charlotte Hornets, the Suns are 3-1. The sole loss came against the east-leading Cleveland Cavaliers.

Richards fills a big hole at the centre position left by Jusuf Nurkic who went from starter to out of the rotation after being ineffective to start the campaign.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are a respectable 26-19 but struggle on the road. They are 9-11 away from the Intuit Dome.

Phoenix is 14-8 at home and is looking to make a move up the standings.

Other SGP legs

Richards over 9.5 rebounds (-134): Speaking of Richards, the seven-footer has been stuffing the stat sheet.

Besides one dud vs. Cleveland (four points, four rebounds), Richards has excelled, recording double-digit rebounds in the three other games.

He’s also coming off his best performance as a Sun, scoring 20 points and grabbing 19 rebounds against the Washington Wizards in 33 minutes — his most playing time since Oct. 30.

I’m sure Mike Budenholzer loves what he sees and will rely on Richards to compete with Clippers centre Ivica Zubac who ranks fourth in the NBA with 12.5 rebounds per game.

Leonard over 0.5 steals (-245): This is a juiced line but it brings the SGP from +155 to +285 so it feels like a no-brainer to tack it on.

Leonard’s played seven games this season since returning from injury and he’s recorded a steal in six of those contests.

He is on a minute restriction which might concern some but it hasn’t mattered before.

This is a guy who averages 1.7 steals per game over his career. So it’s not surprising he’s been effective on the defensive end of the floor in his limited minutes.

Toronto Raptors fans will remember Leonard for his tenacious defence — amongst other things — and I expect the Klaw to be locked in to guard Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Co.

Picks made at 11:50 a.m. on 01/27/25.