Two of the most talented bigs in the NBA — Victor Wembanyama and Giannis Antetokounmpo — will share the court tonight as the San Antonio Spurs host the Milwaukee Bucks.
The pregame narrative: Wembanyama is blossoming into a superstar, but there are still justifiable reasons to bet the under on his prop markets. I’m backing a Wemby under tonight, along with predictions for Khris Middleton and Harrison Barnes.
Check out my Bucks vs. Spurs prop picks for Jan. 31.
Bucks vs. Spurs prop picks
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Best bet: Wembanyama under 15.5 rebounds/assists (-108)
In practically every way, Wembanyama’s sophomore season has been an improvement over a remarkable Rookie of the Year campaign.
He’s playing more minutes. He’s shooting more efficiently. And his rebounding and steals numbers are up, while his turnover numbers are down.
But even with all of that said, I can’t automatically select overs on Wembanyama whenever I peruse his prop markets. Some lines are a bit too lofty, and this is one of them.
- Wembanyama has 10+ rebounds in six straight games, which is his longest streak of the season. Even so, he only went over 15.5 rebounds/assists twice in those matchups.
- He’s hit this under in 12/18 games since Dec. 19.
- On the season, Wembanyama is averaging 14.5 reb/ast.
In the first week of January, Wembanyama had 41 rebounds in a two-game span. So it’s possible that he goes nuclear on the boards and ruins my bet that way.
But I don’t see it against the Milwaukee Bucks, who allow the 10th-fewest rebounds to opposing centres, per Betting Pros.
Milwaukee also allows the fifth-fewest assists to centres.
Key stat: Wemby has gone under 15.5 RA in both career games against the Bucks. That includes a matchup on Jan. 8 (10 rebounds, one assist).
Quick picks
Middleton under 11.5 points (-112): As recently as the 2021-22 season, Middleton was an all-star averaging 20.1 PPG.
His numbers dipped a bit in the two seasons that followed, and now he’s out of the starting lineup while averaging his lowest scoring total since his rookie year (11.9 PPG).
Middleton has played nine consecutive games off the bench, averaging just 10.8 PPG in that span — despite a blistering 55.1% FG rate. He’s been held scoreless in two of his past three.
I can’t trust this guy right now, and certainly not in this matchup. The Spurs, who held Middleton to eight points earlier this month, allow the fourth-fewest points to opposing small forwards.
Barnes over 1.5 threes (-118): I was originally eyeing the over on Barnes’ points prop (12.5), but I think this is a simpler way to back a guy who’s been ultra-efficient from deep recently.
- Over his past 13 games, Barnes is shooting 44.8% from 3-point range, averaging 2.0 makes.
- He’s canned 2+ threes in three straight games, as well as 8/13 since Dec. 29.
Barnes went over 1.5 threes when he faced the Spurs earlier this month, and he deserves enough looks to hit the over again.
San Antonio allows the 11th-most made 3s in the NBA.
Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET 01/16/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.