I’ve got three prop bets for Thursday’s NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: Austin Reaves gets an A-plus matchup against the Washington Wizards and is a good bet to stuff the stat sheet. Elsewhere, back Evan Mobley to score and Franz Wagner to hit a pair of triples.
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Best bet: Reaves over 31.5 points/rebounds/assists (-122)
Reaves is in a bit of a lull right now but gets a slump-buster with Washington.
The Wizards are a truly dreadful team that has been dominated by shooting guards this season. Here is what they allow to the position on a per-game basis, according to Betting Pros:
- 23.54 points (4th-most)
- 6.67 rebounds (6th-most)
- 5.62 assists (3rd-most)
Washington also ranks last in defensive rating and 26th in opponent field goal percentage (47.7%).
Reaves has fallen under this number in five of his last six games but still shot a respectable 47.1% from the field in that span. On the whole, he’s been very productive since returning from injury on Dec. 13.
- 19.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 7.3 APG
- 30+ PRA in 11/21 games
With Anthony Davis sidelined, I expect Reaves to be the No. 2 option on a Los Angeles Lakers team needing wins.
Key stat: Reaves has cleared this mark in nine of his last 19 games.
Quick picks
Mobley over 17.5 points (-112): This seems like a light line for Mobley.
The fourth-year power forward is enjoying the best scoring season of his career (18.2 PPG) and draws a solid matchup against the Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta has the 19th-ranked mid-range defence, according to Cleaning the Glass, and Mobley takes plenty of shots from that area of the court.
The Hawks also play at the second-fastest pace, which is a boon for betting overs.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are on a back-to-back but that doesn’t phase me.
Mobley played 32 minutes in his last back-to-back (Jan. 9 vs. Toronto) and scored 21 points on 63.6% shooting. He’s cleared this mark in three straight games with no rest.
Wagner over 1.5 threes (-139): Wagner is playing in his fourth game since suffering an oblique injury in early December, and the early results are encouraging.
He was limited to just 24 minutes in his return but played 30 and 40 minutes after that, clearing this line in both games while averaging nine 3-point attempts.
That type of volume alone makes this enticing.
Now consider he’s playing the Portland Trail Blazers, who have the sixth-worst 3-point defence (37.2%) in the NBA.
This is a smash spot.
Picks made at 8:31 a.m. ET on 01/30/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.