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Yankees vs. Guardians Game 5 ALCS prop picks: Back New York’s offence in Cleveland

The New York Yankees can punch their ticket to the World Series with a win over the Cleveland Guardians today.

The pregame narrative: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have been great in this series and I’m taking prop picks on all three.

Check out my Yankees vs. Guardians prop picks for Game 5 of their ALCS matchup on Oct. 19.

Yankees vs. Guardians prop picks

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Best bet: Soto over 0.5 runs (-112)

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Soto has been effective this series, scoring four runs in four games. He also has four hits and two home runs but his three walks are a major reason I’m opting for his runs prop over his total bases prop.

The slugger is batting .286 in the playoffs but is reaching base at a .417 clip. Judge’s emergence in this series led Soto to score vital runs for his squad.

Additionally, the Yankees outfielder has five career at-bats against Guardians starter Tanner Bibee and reached base four times (two hits, two walks).

The value on his run prop is just too good to pass up.

Key stat: Soto scored 68 runs in 81 road games this season.

Quick picks

Judge over 0.5 runs (+100): After starting the postseason with one hit in three games, Judge has come alive.

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He has scored in five straight games and is putting the ‘not a playoff performer’ narrative to rest.

Judge has relied on a home run to drive himself home in two games but that is not unusual for the major’s HR leader (58) this season.

The slugger made just one career plate appearance against Bibee and grounded out, but that very small sample size doesn’t deter me from backing MLB’s best offensive player.

Stanton over 0.5 RBI (+170): Stanton has been cleaning up for the Yankees.

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The designated hitter has driven in five runs this series and nine overall in the playoffs. That includes a three-run blast in yesterday’s game that helped New York win, 8-6.

Stanton is 6-2 against this line in the playoffs so the risk is worth it here at nice plus-money odds.

Picks made at 9:54 a.m. ET 10/19/2024.

Toronto Raptors 2024-2025 futures odds and best bet: Expect Raps to improve, top win total

There’s nowhere to go but up for the Toronto Raptors this season.

After a disastrous 25-win campaign, Toronto runs it back with a young core and a clear path moving forward. Led by Scottie Barnes, I’m bullish on the Raptors improving and topping their modest win total.

Check out our Raptors futures odds for the 2024-25 NBA season.

Raptors futures odds

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Best bet: Over 30.5 wins (+100)

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Toronto is coming off its worst campaign since 2011-2012 but I predict better results this year.

In the season before the Raptors drafted Barnes fourth overall, they won 27 games due to dysfunction in the lineup and a lack of direction after winning an NBA title and Kawhi Leonard’s departure.

Last season’s team mirrored that lack of direction for different reasons.

Eventually, the front office decided to go young and moved Pascal Siakam and OG Annunoby for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and other assets.

In their stints with the Raps, both midseason pickups showed promise.

Barrett averaged 21.8 points on 55.3% shooting from the field and 39.2% from three. The Canadian appears to be comfortable on home soil and lived up to the promise that made him a third overall pick out of Duke in 2019.

If he can build off the 32-game stretch he had with Toronto, Barrett could quickly turn into a real asset.

Quickley, meanwhile, looked like a future all-star at times, averaging 18.6 points and 6.8 assists on 39.5% from 3-point range.

Then, of course, there’s Barnes, who took another leap last year.

Barnes averaged 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks with a career-high 56.6 true shooting percentage.

He’s already an elite defender and playmaker for his size. His lack of a weakness makes him a strong contributor to winning basketball games.

While Barnes missed 22 games last year with a hand injury, he played 70-plus games in his other two seasons.

I feel confident a full season with this core is good for more than a modest 30.5 wins.

Playoff odds

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Am I confident the Raptors will make the playoffs? Not necessarily, but there’s value there for those looking for a plus-money future.

On top of the improving core, Toronto added an array of tough defenders through trade and the draft.

This is the deepest the bench has been in a few years. Moving forward, it’s hard to see the odds getting much juicier than this.

Don’t be surprised if the Raptors sneak into a play-in spot over a declining team like the Chicago Bulls. The path from there is much easier to make the playoffs.

Other Raptors markets

While the Raptors are far from a contender, you can still bet on them to surprise.

Raptors to win the Atlantic:

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Raptors to win the East:

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Raptors to win the NBA Finals:

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From a player standpoint, there are more intriguing options.

One of them is Barnes to win Most Improved Player.

Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey took a big leap from his third to fourth year in the league to win last season’s award, something Barnes will look to replicate.

Barnes has the seventh-shortest odds in a market that’s led by betting favourite Victor Wembanyama.

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NBA odds as of 1:43 p.m. on 10/17/24.

Chiefs vs. 49ers Week 7 same-game parlay predictions: Take San Fransico and a Kareem Hunt prop in +335 ticket

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet in a highly anticipated Week 7 game.

The pregame narrative: I expect the Chiefs to lose their first game in a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl matchup. The over on an alternate point total and a Kareem Hunt prop round out the parlay.

Check out my Chiefs vs. 49ers same-game parlay predictions for Week 7.

Chiefs vs. 49ers same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: 49ers moneyline + Over 40.5 points + Hunt over 14.5 receiving yards (+335)

49ers moneyline (-117): Yes, the Chiefs are 5-0 but this is a good spot to fade them.

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Injuries are the most concerning thing for this team and it’s gotten worse, even coming off the bye week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster was Patrick Mahomes’ favourite target in Week 5. He caught seven of eight targets for 130 yards.

After practicing fully on Wednesday, the wideout was a new addition to the injury report on Thursday with a hamstring issue.

Additionally, the 49ers have been strong at home, boasting a plus-29 point differential in three games at Levi’s Stadium.

Coming off the bye last season, Kansas City lost to the Philadelphia Eagles and scored only 17 points.

Other parlay picks

Over 40.5 points (-265): Taking the over on an alternate total feels like a safe filler leg.

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The 49ers have scored 23 or more points in five of six games and the Chiefs have scored at least 22 in four of five.

Although this may not be a shootout, I have faith that both starting quarterbacks can lead their teams to at least 20 points.

I contemplated teasing the total up and taking the under instead but Mahomes’ history against the 49ers deterred me.

Since Mahomes was drafted, all four games between the Chiefs and 49ers have gone over this total. Those games have averaged 57.5 points per contest.

Hunt over 14.5 receiving yards (-120): Hunt has been strong in his return to Kansas City’s backfield.

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He only has three catches but that’s been enough to clear this total in both starts. His snap share increased from 45% to 63% in his first two games and I expect another jump coming off the bye week.

It feels like this line is right around his floor. With increased playing time and a few more targets, he could smash this total on Sunday.

Picks made at 1:07 p.m. on 10/18/24.

Top NFL Week 7 TD picks: Bet on Chubb, St. Brown and Pickens to find the end zone

Nick Chubb, Amon-Ra St. Brown and George Pickens are all featured in my top Week 7 TD picks.

The pregame narrative: I like Chubb’s chances of scoring in his first game back from injury while St. Brown has a strong matchup to stay hot. On Sunday night, I am backing George Pickens to score after a change in starting quarterbacks.

Check out the best NFL Week 7 TD picks for this weekend.

NFL Week 7 TD picks

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Best bet: Chubb anytime TD (+135)

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Out with the new and in with the old… or something like that.

Jerome Ford is questionable after missing practice this week while Chubb is logging full practices and is on track to play.

This is no doubt a risky pick after Chubb missed over a year with two separate major knee injuries but this also may be the best value we get on the tailback for the rest of the season.

Chubb is a TD machine when healthy. He scored 34 times over his last 45 games played.

And he returns to face a bad Cincinnati Bengals defence. They allow the sixth-most rushing yards (146.0) and the eighth-most points (25.3) per game.

There are obvious question marks about Chubb’s explosiveness but not his cardio. He’s been practicing since Week 5 and took his time to fully work back into game shape.

I’m confident that Zac Taylor will call red zone plays for his star running back.

Key stat: Cincinnati has conceded seven rushing touchdowns this season (1.2/game).

Quick picks

St. Brown anytime TD (+104): St. Brown took a few weeks to find the end zone but has come away from three straight games with a score.

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This week’s opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, is 5-0 but has a hard time containing the pass. The Vikings allow the third-most receiving yards per game (263.0).

That means St. Brown has the potential to break free at any time. When the Lions reach the red zone, his stats are promising there, too.

Detroit’s No. 1 receiver is tied for the NFL lead in red zone receptions (eight) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (three).

Pickens anytime TD (+185): With Russell Wilson expected to start, the value on Pickens has increased significantly.

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Wilson loves his No. 1 receivers as we saw in his time with the Denver Broncos. Last season, Courtland Sutton caught 10 of his 26 TD passes.

Pickens is that alpha for the Steelers but Justin Fields isn’t a guy who’s going to throw deep balls. He’s a dual-threat QB who much prefers the safer reads.

As such, four of his five TD passes were caught by tight ends.

It’s unusual for a wideout to lead his team in every receiving stat (by a wide margin) without finding the end zone and I expect that to change. So I’m taking the value here, even against the defensively stout New York Jets.

Picks made at 10:51 a.m. ET on 10/18/2024.

Dodgers vs. Mets Game 5 same-game parlay predictions: Back Los Angeles to advance as part of +325 ticket

The Los Angeles Dodgers can punch their ticket to the World Series with a road win at Citi Field on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: I like the Dodgers to end the New York Mets’ season as part of a three-leg parlay that features a play on the game total and a Kike Hernandez prop.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Mets predictions for Game 5 of the NLCS on Oct. 18.

Dodgers vs. Mets SGP predictions

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Parlay: Dodgers moneyline + Over 7.5 runs + Hernandez over 0.5 hits (+325)

Dodgers moneyline (-139): The Dodgers have finally shown up in the postseason.

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And New York looks outmatched. It is down 3-1 and at a -21 run differential this series. L.A. has scored eight or more runs in all three wins.

David Peterson gets the crucial start for the Mets and he has been used exclusively as a reliever this postseason, working 8.2 innings over four appearances.

The Dodgers lineup has had success against the lefty with a .343 average in 67 career at-bats.

Peterson worked 2.1 innings in Game 1, allowing three runs on four hits in a 9-0 Dodgers win. Jack Flaherty got the start that game, pitching a seven-inning masterclass, and goes again tonight.

SGP legs

Over 7.5 runs (-103): Los Angeles has given up nine runs over the last six games so it’s hard to fathom that five of the games went over this total.

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That is truly a testament to how great the Dodgers have been and it also makes it easy to justify taking the over when they play.

In those six games, Shohei Ohtani and Co. scored a ridiculous 40 runs.

If the Mets can contribute any sort of offence, I feel good about this game going over the total. Every game in this series has despite New York’s low-scoring efforts.

Hernandez over 0.5 hits (-129): Hernandez had another two hits last night and the playoff performer has a great matchup here.

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The Dodgers’ utility man has four hits and a .571 average in seven career at-bats against Peterson.

Hernandez has nine hits in five postseason starts (.375 BA), recording multiple hits four different times.

All signs point to another good night for Hernandez.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. on 10/18/24.

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Best NHL prop picks Oct. 17: Target Trocheck, Stutzle and Eberle on Thursday

Three forwards contribute to today’s NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: The New York Rangers bring the best league’s offence into Motor City and I expect Vincent Trocheck to contribute. I’m also backing Tim Stutzle to top his shot total and Jordan Eberle to record a point.

Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 17 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Trocheck over 2.5 shots (-136)

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This is simple. The Rangers score the most goals per game (5.0), and Trocheck has taken the most shots for them … by a lot.

In three games, the 31-year-old centre has taken 11 shots and has cleared this total in each contest.

Players like Artemi Panarin have a 3.5 shot total even though the results haven’t been as promising (seven shots).

I’d rather buy low on the name value and take the guy who’s been peppering goalies this year.

Another encouraging sign is Trocheck’s time on ice. He’s averaging 22:41 per game — the more he’s out there the more potential there is for shots.

Key stat: The Detroit Red Wings allow the fourth-most shots per game (32.7).

Quick picks

Stutzle over 2.5 shots (+100): This pick is based more on potential than recent outcomes.

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Despite having six points in three games, Stutzle has cleared this total just once. I predict that to change, however, and that’s because of his shot totals over recent seasons.

Stutzle has averaged 2.76 shots per game over his last two years so statistically there’s good value here at plus money.

This is definitely going against the trend but I’m willing to take a risk on things changing for one of the NHL’s brightest young offensive players.

Eberle over 0.5 points (+108): Seattle’s captain has points in three of four games and has a relatively good matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers.

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Philly is tied for the six-most goals against per game (4.0) and leads the league in penalty minutes per game (18.3).

That should give Eberle a lot of chances to get on the board and add to his point-per-game pace.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 10/16/2024.

NBA opening night odds, Oct. 22: Boston hosts New York, Minnesota visits LeBron James and the Lakers

NBA opening night provides two exciting matchups.

The latest: The New York Knicks start the season with a game against the reigning champs, the Boston Celtics. Later on, the new-look Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Los Angeles Lakers.

Check out the latest NBA odds for Tuesday, Oct 22.

NBA opening night odds

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New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics

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Things couldn’t have gone better for the Celtics last season. They finished with the NBA’s best record and won the NBA Championship. It was the first of what fans hope is many for the core of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

New York is trying to catch up with Boston and made a big move this offseason to do so. The front office acquired talented two-way forward Mikal Bridges, pairing him with fellow Villanova alumni Jalen Brunson.

Then the Knicks went out and traded Julius Randle and other assets for Karl Anthony Towns.

Boston is the rightful five-point favourite here but watch out for New York to take another leap this season after an eventful offseason.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers

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For better or for worse, the story headlining opening night for the Lakers will revolve around the James family as Bronny is rumoured to make his NBA debut earlier than most expected.

LeBron will be the oldest player in the NBA this season and he’s still among the elite. James led the USA Olympic Team to a gold medal this summer and was undoubtedly their best player.

Minnesota made headlines recently, too, with the aforementioned trade of Towns. Some argue the Wolves got better by completely turning the keys over the Anthony Edwards and adding better role players.

With all the question marks on both sides, this is surely to be exciting game to open the season.

Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 1 best bets: Back New York and the over

The New York Mets visit the Los Angeles Dodgers as the NLCS gets underway on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: The Dodgers and Mets will have limited pitching options which has me taking the over on the game total. New York also has good value to take a series lead at an underdog price.

Check out my Mets vs. Dodgers best bets for Game 1 of their NLCS matchup on Oct. 13.

Mets vs. Dodgers best bets

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Best Bet: Over 8 runs (-112)

Fans are unsure who will be starting for the Dodgers but the most likely option is Jack Flaherty.

If that’s the case, I can see the Mets contributing a good amount of runs to this total. And that’s because of Flaherty’s recent struggles.

The righty has given up 14 runs over his last four starts (19.1 innings pitched). That includes seven runs in two starts against the Padres in the NLDS.

Most of the Mets’ big arms will also be unavailable which leaves Kodai Senga. The Japanese pitcher only started one game during the regular season between lengthy stints on the injured list.

Senga returned for Game 1 against the Phillies but was limited to two innings of work. He was good, however, allowing one run.

If the Mets need to turn to their bullpen early, that could be problematic. New York’s bullpen ranked in the middle of the pack this season (4.04 ERA).

Key stat: Nine of the 12 playoff games played by the Dodgers and Mets this year have had eight or more runs scored.

Quick pick

Mets moneyline (+135): In my view, Game 1 provides a good opportunity for the Mets to grab a win.

As mentioned, I’m not trusting either starter but I find it easy to get behind a hot Mets’ lineup at plus money.

New York is averaging 5.4 runs per game in these playoffs and the offence is consistent, scoring three or more runs in every game.

L.A. was pushed to the brink by San Diego and is at a rest disadvantage as a result. It won’t be a problem for the players who are used to playing every day but my concern lies with the pitching.

In Game 4, the Dodgers had a bullpen game and used eight different arms. They followed that up by using five pitchers in Game 5.

Manager Dave Roberts may be inclined to keep Flaherty in longer than he wants to try and save some arms early in the series.

The Mets are coming off three days of rest and the bullpen can be used more aggressively if things go south for Senga.

Picks made at 2:11 p.m. ET 10/12/2024.

Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 1 best bets: Back New York and the over

The New York Mets visit the Los Angeles Dodgers as the NLCS gets underway on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: The Dodgers and Mets will have limited pitching options which has me taking the over on the game total. New York also has good value to take a series lead at an underdog price.

Check out my Mets vs. Dodgers best bets for Game 1 of their NLCS matchup on Oct. 13.

Mets vs. Dodgers best bets

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Best Bet: Over 8 runs (-115)

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Fans are unsure who will be starting for the Dodgers but the most likely option is Jack Flaherty.

If that’s the case, I can see the Mets contributing a good amount of runs to this total. And that’s because of Flaherty’s recent struggles.

The righty has given up 14 runs over his last four starts (19.1 innings pitched). That includes seven runs in two starts against the Padres in the NLDS.

Most of the Mets’ big arms will also be unavailable which leaves Kodai Senga. The Japanese pitcher only started one game during the regular season between lengthy stints on the injured list.

Senga returned for Game 1 against the Phillies but was limited to two innings of work. He was good, however, allowing one run.

If the Mets need to turn to their bullpen early, that could be problematic. New York’s bullpen ranked in the middle of the pack this season (4.04 ERA).

Key stat: Nine of the 12 playoff games played by the Dodgers and Mets this year have had eight or more runs scored.

Quick pick

Mets moneyline (+135): In my view, Game 1 provides a good opportunity for the Mets to grab a win.

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As mentioned, I’m not trusting either starter but I find it easy to get behind a hot Mets’ lineup at plus money.

New York is averaging 5.4 runs per game in these playoffs and the offence is consistent, scoring three or more runs in every game.

L.A. was pushed to the brink by San Diego and is at a rest disadvantage as a result. It won’t be a problem for the players who are used to playing every day but my concern lies with the pitching.

In Game 4, the Dodgers had a bullpen game and used eight different arms. They followed that up by using five pitchers in Game 5.

Manager Dave Roberts may be inclined to keep Flaherty in longer than he wants to try and save some arms early in the series.

The Mets are coming off three days of rest and the bullpen can be used more aggressively if things go south for Senga.

Picks made at 1:17 p.m. ET 10/12/2024.

Best NHL prop picks Oct. 12: Draisaitl poised to lead Oilers’ offence

I’m backing three players to produce on Saturday in my NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Tim Stutzle has a strong matchup to tally up shots. Elsewhere, Leon Draisaitl also has value on his shot prop while Jack Hughes looks primed for a big game.

Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 12 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Stutzle over 2.5 shots (-112)

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It didn’t take long for Stutzle to find the back of the net as he scored two in the Ottawa Senators’ season opener against the Florida Panthers.

The centre narrowly cleared this line in that game, recording three shots on goal but the Montreal Canadiens provide a much easier matchup.

Montreal has allowed an average of 38.5 shots through its first two games and I think the firepower on the Sens can keep that average up.

Florida was a bottom-three team last season in shots against per game (27.8) and Ottawa still managed to record 30 shots on its opening night.

The Canadiens were the opposite, allowing the third most shots per game (33.4) last year.

Key stat: Stutzle cleared this shot total in three of his last four games against the Habs.

Quick picks

Draisaitl over 2.5 shots (-143): I am a bit hesitant picking an Oilers’ prop after the 6-0 thrashing by the Winnipeg Jets on opening night.

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But this is a very modest line for one of the league’s top snipers. Draisaitl had three shots on goal in what was possibly a worst-case scenario for Edmonton in its first game.

The Oilers had 30 shots but only one power play which is where Draisaitl is most effective.

On top of that, I would be shocked if the Oilers weren’t hungry for a big performance after getting embarrassed by the Jets.

Connor McDavid and Draisaitl will be expected to lead the charge offensively.

Hughes to record 2+ points (+170): New Jersey had a weird start to the season, playing two games overseas before returning to face a potent Toronto Maple Leafs offence after almost a week off.

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With that knowledge, it is unsurprising that the Devils looked flat in their home opener but Hughes and co. have a great opportunity to bounce back.

Hughes had 17 points in his first six games last season and was leading the way on the Hart Trophy odds board before getting injured. He still finished well over a point per game with 74 points in 62 appearances.

At only 23 years old, it should be expected for the centre to make another leap this season which means he could be one of the league’s top point producers if he can stay healthy.

That would mean a lot of multi-point games so let’s get in while the value is still there.

Picks made at 10:52 a.m. ET on 10/12/2024.

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