Nick Chubb, Amon-Ra St. Brown and George Pickens are all featured in my top Week 7 TD picks.
The pregame narrative: I like Chubb’s chances of scoring in his first game back from injury while St. Brown has a strong matchup to stay hot. On Sunday night, I am backing George Pickens to score after a change in starting quarterbacks.
Check out the best NFL Week 7 TD picks for this weekend.
NFL Week 7 TD picks
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Best bet: Chubb anytime TD (+135)
Out with the new and in with the old… or something like that.
Jerome Ford is questionable after missing practice this week while Chubb is logging full practices and is on track to play.
This is no doubt a risky pick after Chubb missed over a year with two separate major knee injuries but this also may be the best value we get on the tailback for the rest of the season.
Chubb is a TD machine when healthy. He scored 34 times over his last 45 games played.
And he returns to face a bad Cincinnati Bengals defence. They allow the sixth-most rushing yards (146.0) and the eighth-most points (25.3) per game.
There are obvious question marks about Chubb’s explosiveness but not his cardio. He’s been practicing since Week 5 and took his time to fully work back into game shape.
I’m confident that Zac Taylor will call red zone plays for his star running back.
Key stat: Cincinnati has conceded seven rushing touchdowns this season (1.2/game).
Quick picks
St. Brown anytime TD (+104): St. Brown took a few weeks to find the end zone but has come away from three straight games with a score.
This week’s opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, is 5-0 but has a hard time containing the pass. The Vikings allow the third-most receiving yards per game (263.0).
That means St. Brown has the potential to break free at any time. When the Lions reach the red zone, his stats are promising there, too.
Detroit’s No. 1 receiver is tied for the NFL lead in red zone receptions (eight) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (three).
Pickens anytime TD (+185): With Russell Wilson expected to start, the value on Pickens has increased significantly.
Wilson loves his No. 1 receivers as we saw in his time with the Denver Broncos. Last season, Courtland Sutton caught 10 of his 26 TD passes.
Pickens is that alpha for the Steelers but Justin Fields isn’t a guy who’s going to throw deep balls. He’s a dual-threat QB who much prefers the safer reads.
As such, four of his five TD passes were caught by tight ends.
It’s unusual for a wideout to lead his team in every receiving stat (by a wide margin) without finding the end zone and I expect that to change. So I’m taking the value here, even against the defensively stout New York Jets.
Picks made at 10:51 a.m. ET on 10/18/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.