The New York Mets visit the Los Angeles Dodgers as the NLCS gets underway on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: The Dodgers and Mets will have limited pitching options which has me taking the over on the game total. New York also has good value to take a series lead at an underdog price.
Check out my Mets vs. Dodgers best bets for Game 1 of their NLCS matchup on Oct. 13.
Mets vs. Dodgers best bets
Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here
Best Bet: Over 8 runs (-115)
Fans are unsure who will be starting for the Dodgers but the most likely option is Jack Flaherty.
If that’s the case, I can see the Mets contributing a good amount of runs to this total. And that’s because of Flaherty’s recent struggles.
The righty has given up 14 runs over his last four starts (19.1 innings pitched). That includes seven runs in two starts against the Padres in the NLDS.
Most of the Mets’ big arms will also be unavailable which leaves Kodai Senga. The Japanese pitcher only started one game during the regular season between lengthy stints on the injured list.
Senga returned for Game 1 against the Phillies but was limited to two innings of work. He was good, however, allowing one run.
If the Mets need to turn to their bullpen early, that could be problematic. New York’s bullpen ranked in the middle of the pack this season (4.04 ERA).
Key stat: Nine of the 12 playoff games played by the Dodgers and Mets this year have had eight or more runs scored.
Quick pick
Mets moneyline (+135): In my view, Game 1 provides a good opportunity for the Mets to grab a win.
As mentioned, I’m not trusting either starter but I find it easy to get behind a hot Mets’ lineup at plus money.
New York is averaging 5.4 runs per game in these playoffs and the offence is consistent, scoring three or more runs in every game.
L.A. was pushed to the brink by San Diego and is at a rest disadvantage as a result. It won’t be a problem for the players who are used to playing every day but my concern lies with the pitching.
In Game 4, the Dodgers had a bullpen game and used eight different arms. They followed that up by using five pitchers in Game 5.
Manager Dave Roberts may be inclined to keep Flaherty in longer than he wants to try and save some arms early in the series.
The Mets are coming off three days of rest and the bullpen can be used more aggressively if things go south for Senga.
Picks made at 1:17 p.m. ET 10/12/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.