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Chargers vs. Cardinals Week 7 MNF prop picks: Bet on both QBs to be effective on the ground

The Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona Cardinals close out Week 7 on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Chargers have a strong defence but that hasn’t deterred me from backing Kyler Murray and Michael Wilson in the prop markets. I’m also betting on Justin Herbert to go over his modest rushing yards prop.

Check out my Chargers vs. Cardinals prop picks for Monday Night Football on Oct. 21.

Chargers vs. Cardinals prop picks

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Best Bet: Herbert over 10.5 rushing yards (-113)

Herbert has failed to cash this prop in most of his games this season but has the right matchup to get back on track.

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Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels unsurprisingly went over this line against the Cardinals, but so did Brock Purdy and Jordan Love, who are much more comparable to Herbert in terms of playstyle.

The Chargers’ quarterback is averaging just 1.4 yards per carry this season but that is an outlier compared to his 3.9 career YPC.

It’s not a huge number but that makes a difference for a low total like this.

Additionally, Herbert has a career average of 14.0 rushing yards per game

Key stat: Herbert had 38 rushing yards on four attempts in his only career start vs. Arizona.

Quick pick

Murray over 32.5 rushing yards (-115): Murray is a great dual-threat QB and should be effective on the ground against the Chargers’ defence.

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Los Angeles allows the fifth-fewest yards per game (306.6) but they rank second last in QB hurry rate (3.2%). That means when Murray takes off, he should have time and space to rack up yards.

The two weeks he failed to reach this mark were against the Green Bay Packers (10.2% hurry rate) and Washington Commanders (9.5% hurry rate).

Through six weeks, Murray is averaging 43.5 rushing yards per game.

Wilson over 29.5 receiving yards (-130): This one is pretty simple.

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Wilson carved a role out as Arizona’s WR2 this season. He’s topped this mark in four of his last five games with an average of 46.4 yards per game over that span.

The 24-year-old averages five targets per game and is leading all Cards’ receivers and tight ends in offensive snaps (294).

Although the Chargers’ defence is tough, they are 11th in passing yards allowed per game (192.0). Murray is in a good position to be successful and Wilson is a consistent target in this offence.

Picks made at 1:38 p.m. on 10/21/2024.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Lightning Oct. 21: Bet on Domi, fade Hedman in Atlantic showdown

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The defensive upside for both teams is intriguing so my best bet is the under. I’m also eyeing Max Domi and Victor Hedman on the prop market.

Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. the Lightning for the game on Oct. 21.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Lightning

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Best bet: Under 6.5 goals (-110)

The Atlantic Division will be a competitive mess once again and the Leafs and Lightning started as two of its top defensive teams.

That also stands true for the NHL as a whole. Toronto allows the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.2) and Tampa Bay gives up the seventh-fewest (2.5). Both teams are bottom-five in shots allowed, as well.

It’s hard to pick a side tonight but I am more confident in it being a gritty defensive battle.

The additions of Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Anthony Stolarz have been super impactful. It seems rostering a couple of NHL-proven defensemen was all the team needed to have a solid defensive foundation.

It hasn’t been announced who will start in goal for Toronto with Joseph Woll practicing again but it is clear either option is better than what the team had at this time, last year.

Key stat: Unders are 4-1 in Leafs games this season.

Other picks

Domi to record 1+ point (+115): Domi has been excelling on a line with William Nylander and has five points in as many games to prove it.

Again, this should be a defensive battle but Domi plays on the second line and hasn’t needed much time on ice to contribute.

The centreman averages just 15:15 of ice time but has points in three of five games and two multi-point outings.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t get much powerplay time (only 1:43 so far) but he is a great even-strength player.

Domi is a fast skater and a great passer. He’s not afraid to get his hands dirty, either, and is a perfect complimentary player for Nylander.

Hedman under 0.5 points (+115): Hedman is a point-producing defenseman (four points in four games) but I believe his chances of getting on the scoresheet will be slim tonight.

Hedman has points in 2-of-4 games with two points coming on the powerplay and another on an empty net goal. That leaves one 5v5 point.

Toronto kills penalties at an 85% rate and only takes eight penalty minutes per game. Both of those stats rank in the top half of the league.

This feels like a good spot to fade Hedman.

Picks made at 11:14 a.m. on 10/21/24.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Lightning Oct. 21: Bet on Domi, fade Hedman in Atlantic showdown

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The defensive upside for both teams is intriguing so my best bet is the under. I’m also eyeing Max Domi and Victor Hedman on the prop market.

Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. the Lightning for the game on Oct. 21.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Lightning

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Under 6.5 goals (-112)

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The Atlantic Division will be a competitive mess once again and the Leafs and Lightning started as two of its top defensive teams.

That also stands true for the NHL as a whole. Toronto allows the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.2) and Tampa Bay gives up the seventh-fewest (2.5). Both teams are bottom-five in shots allowed, as well.

It’s hard to pick a side tonight but I am more confident in it being a gritty defensive battle.

The additions of Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Anthony Stolarz have been super impactful. It seems rostering a couple of NHL-proven defensemen was all the team needed to have a solid defensive foundation.

It hasn’t been announced who will start in goal for Toronto with Joseph Woll practicing again but it is clear either option is better than what the team had at this time, last year.

Key stat: Unders are 4-1 in Leafs games this season.

Other picks

Domi to record 1+ point (+123): Domi has been excelling on a line with William Nylander and has five points in as many games to prove it.

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Again, this should be a defensive battle but Domi plays on the second line and hasn’t needed much time on ice to contribute.

The centreman averages just 15:15 of ice time but has points in three of five games and two multi-point outings.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t get much powerplay time (only 1:43 so far) but he is a great even-strength player.

Domi is a fast skater and a great passer. He’s not afraid to get his hands dirty, either, and is a perfect complimentary player for Nylander.

Hedman under 0.5 points (+118): Hedman is a point-producing defenseman (four points in four games) but I believe his chances of getting on the scoresheet will be slim tonight.

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Hedman has points in 2-of-4 games with two points coming on the powerplay and another on an empty net goal. That leaves one 5v5 point.

Toronto kills penalties at an 85% rate and only takes eight penalty minutes per game. Both of those stats rank in the top half of the league.

This feels like a good spot to fade Hedman.

Picks made at 9:45 a.m. on 10/21/24.

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Timberwolves vs. Lakers NBA opening night SGP picks: Back Davis, Edwards and Conley in +510 wager

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Los Angeles Lakers for an opening-night banger in the NBA.

The pregame narrative: The NBA season is officially here and I have a three-leg parlay made up of player props on Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Lakers SGP picks for the opening night of the NBA on Oct. 22.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers picks

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Parlay: Davis over 25.5 points + Edwards over 2.5 threes + Conley over 5.5 assists (+510)

Davis over 25.5 points (-150): The Timberwolves are a strong defensive team but Davis has owned them lately.

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The big man cleared this line in five straight meetings against Minnesota in which he played more than 20 minutes.

In that span, he averaged 33.4 points per game. Rudy Gobert is an elite rim protector but it’s clear he can’t keep up with the guard-like footwork of Davis.

Minnesota only got smaller after trading away seven-foot Karl-Anthony Towns for 6-foot-8 Julius Randle. Expect Davis to feast on the interior.

SGP legs

Edwards over 2.5 threes (-155): The recent trade of Towns made one thing clear – this is Edwards’ team.

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And at the forefront of his offensive game is his 3-point shooting. He hit 2.4 threes a game last season at a 35.7% clip.

Towns turned himself into one of the better shooting big men we’ve seen in the NBA. He shot 5.3 3-pointers per game last year and understandably so as he sunk them at over a 40% rate.

The trade opens up a lot of shots on the perimeter and Edwards is Minnesota’s top option.

Chris Finch will draw up more plays for Edwards beyond the arc this season and his efficiency should improve going into his fifth NBA season.

Conley over 5.5 assists (-113): Conley has stepped away from a scoring role and into an old-school point guard role … and he’s really good at it.

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The veteran averaged 5.7 assists per game last year and ranked seventh in the league with a 4.4 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Additionally, Conley has dished out six or more assists in five of his last six games against the Lakers. Last season, L.A. allowed the sixth most assists to point guards per game (9.2).

Picks made at 2:04 p.m. on 10/20/24.

Jets vs. Steelers Week 7 SNF prop picks: Target Aaron Rodgers and George Pickens in primetime clash

Sunday Night Football is headlined by the defensively sound New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers.

The pregame narrative: Even though defence is the strong point for both teams, I’m backing Aaron Rodgers, Tyler Conklin and George Pickens in the prop markets.

Check out my Jets vs. Steelers prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Oct. 20.

Jets vs. Steelers prop picks

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Best Bet: Rodgers over 224.5 passing yards (-114)

Pittsburgh is elite at keeping points off the board (14.3 against per game) but it has been susceptible to giving up big yards to opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks.

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In Week 5, Dak Prescott put up 352 yards and last Sunday, a much less talented Aidan O’Connell squeaked past this line with 227 yards.

Rodgers has averaged 41.5 attempts per game since Week 3, so the volume should be there to replicate a Prescott-like performance.

Rodgers cleared this line in all four of those outings.

The addition of Davante Adams may not help as much as fans hope in his first appearance in the offence, but it definitely won’t hurt.

Key stat: Rodgers is averaging 255.0 passing yards per game in his career.

Quick pick

Conklin over 2.5 receptions (-103): Adams is a great weapon for Rodgers but he won’t replace Conklin’s role as the safety net.

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The tight end is listed as questionable but he logged a full practice on Friday which is a good sign for his availability.

Conklin has topped this total in three of his past four games and is averaging 4.2 receptions over that span.

Additionally, Pittsburgh allows the sixth most receptions to opposing tight ends (5.7).

If Conklin is active, he will have a role in the offence. He was in the same situation last week and ended up being on the field for 73% of the team’s snaps.

Pickens over 4.5 receptions (+110): This is certainly the riskiest play but the Steelers’ alpha receiver’s volume can’t be ignored.

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Pickens leads the team with 44 targets and has 15 over the last two weeks. Unfortunately, the latter led to six receptions but the change to Russell Wilson should help, in my view.

Justin Fields completed 29-of-51 passes (56.9%) in those games and it seems defences started to figure him out.

Only Anthony Richardson has a worse season-long completion percentage (50.6%).

Picks made at 10:32 a.m. ET on 10/20/2024.

Mets vs. Dodgers Game 6 same-game parlay predictions: Back Betts to continue playoff dominance in +310 ticket

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets have provided baseball fans with an exciting series and it’s coming down to the wire.

The pregame narrative: This three-leg parlay consists of the over on an alternate total, a pitcher prop on Sean Manaea and a player prop on Mookie Betts.

Check out my Mets vs. Dodgers predictions for Game 6 of the NLCS on Oct. 20.

Mets vs. Dodgers SGP predictions

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Parlay: Over 7.5 runs + Manaea under 15.5 outs + Betts over 1.5 total bases (+310)

Over 7.5 runs (-150): I wrote more thoroughly on this leg in my NLCS Game 6 picks, but let me summarize.

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Each game in this series has gone over this total with an average of 11.4 runs. That is crazy considering the Mets have been shut out twice.

All that tells me is both of these teams hold enough firepower to have an offensive explosion on any night.

Manaea started Game 2 in a much similar situation against the Dodgers’ bullpen and the game ended with 10 runs.

SGP legs

Manaea under 15.5 outs (-167): This isn’t a shot at Manaea but rather a good spot to fade any starter in a high-pressure game.

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Unless the lefty is pitching a perfect game, it’s hard to see him going more than five innings, and with the offence L.A. is producing in this series (7.2 runs per game) – I can picture trouble at some point in the first five innings.

He’s cleared this line once in three postseason starts despite having a 2.65 ERA. Not a single Mets pitcher has cleared this line through five games of this series.

Betts over 1.5 total bases (+115): This leg drives up the value.

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Betts has been on a tear in the playoffs. He’s batting .300 with 12 hits – seven went for extra bases (four HRs, three doubles).

The slugger has cleared this line in five of his last eight games and has six hits in his last 10 at-bats.

Adding a plus-money play into an SGP isn’t usually my forte but I opted to here because of how effective Betts is right now.

He has a .294 average and is slugging .735 in 34 career at-bats against Manaea.

Picks made at 8:25 a.m. on 10/20/24.

Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 6 picks: Bet on New York to force a Game 7

The NLCS shifts back to Los Angeles for an exciting Game 6.

The pregame narrative: Runs have come in abundance in this series and I expect that to continue. Also, I’m eyeing the Mets to win at plus money.

Check out the best Dodgers vs. Mets picks for Sunday night’s game.

Dodgers vs. Mets picks

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Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-106)

New York’s offence came alive yesterday, scoring 12 runs to keep its season going. In this series, one team alone has scored more than 8.5 runs in three of the five games.

It makes sense as these were two of the better offensive teams throughout the season. The Dodgers scored the second most runs per game (5.2), while the Mets scored the seventh most (4.7). Both teams have been just as productive in the playoffs as well.

L.A.’s starter hasn’t been announced yet, but, the most likely option appears to be a bullpen game. As we get deeper into the playoffs, the pitching options thin out and that’s good news for the over.

All signs point to a high-scoring affair.

Key stat: Four of five games have gone over this mark with an average of 11.4 total runs.

Quick pick

Mets moneyline (+125): Sean Manaea started in a similar situation in Game 2 and the Mets got the better of the Dodgers, winning 7-3.

Manaea was strong, going five innings and allowing two runs on two hits. His four walks were the highest he’s recorded in a start since September 11.

The left-handed pitcher has worked 12 innings this postseason and has allowed just three runs (2.65 ERA). Once again, I like the prospect of backing a proven starter over a bullpen.

I predict the Mets will get an early lead against the Dodgers’ pen and never look back.

Behind a strong offence, Manaea pitching up to his standard should give his team a strong chance to win.

Picks made at 9:13 a.m. ET 10/20/2024.

Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 6 picks: Bet on New York to force a Game 7

The NLCS shifts back to Los Angeles for an exciting Game 6.

The pregame narrative: Runs have come in abundance in this series and I expect that to continue. Also, I’m eyeing the Mets to win at plus money.

Check out the best Dodgers vs. Mets picks for Sunday night’s game.

Dodgers vs. Mets picks

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Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-107)

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New York’s offence came alive yesterday, scoring 12 runs to keep its season going. In this series, one team alone has scored more than 8.5 runs in three of the five games.

It makes sense as these were two of the better offensive teams throughout the season. The Dodgers scored the second most runs per game (5.2), while the Mets scored the seventh most (4.7). Both teams have been just as productive in the playoffs as well.

L.A.’s starter hasn’t been announced yet, but, the most likely option appears to be a bullpen game. As we get deeper into the playoffs, the pitching options thin out and that’s good news for the over.

All signs point to a high-scoring affair.

Key stat: Four of five games have gone over this mark with an average of 11.4 total runs.

Quick pick

Mets moneyline (+125): Sean Manaea started in a similar situation in Game 2 and the Mets got the better of the Dodgers, winning 7-3.

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Manaea was strong, going five innings and allowing two runs on two hits. His four walks were the highest he’s recorded in a start since September 11.

The left-handed pitcher has worked 12 innings this postseason and has allowed just three runs (2.65 ERA). Once again, I like the prospect of backing a proven starter over a bullpen.

I predict the Mets will get an early lead against the Dodgers’ pen and never look back.

Behind a strong offence, Manaea pitching up to his standard should give his team a strong chance to win.

Picks made at 3:08 p.m. ET 10/19/2024.

Yankees vs. Guardians Game 5 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Carlos Rodon to be effective in +340 wager

The New York Yankees won a thriller against the Cleveland Guardians yesterday and now have a shot to win the ALCS.

The pregame narrative: Today’s parlay consists of a pick on the Yankees, the under on the game total and a Carlos Rodon strikeout prop.

Check out my Yankees vs. Guardians +340 same-game parlay predictions for Game 5 of the ALCS on October 19.

Yankees vs. Guardians SGP predictions

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Parlay: Yankees ML + under 7.5 runs + Rodon over 4.5 Ks (+340)

Yankees ML (-120): I believe it’s time for the Yankees to win this series.

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Rodon is starting and he already has an amazing performance in this series.

In Game 1, the right-handed pitcher dominated Cleveland’s offence – he worked six innings and gave up three hits and a run while striking out nine.

New York had an all-around performance, winning 6-2.

In Bibee’s first start of the ALCS, he only made it through 1.1 innings after giving up five hits and two runs. In that game, seven of nine Yanks had at least one hit.

I am backing three of New York’s sluggers in my Game 5 prop picks so it’s no surprise to see Yankees moneyline make my parlay.

SGP legs

Under 7.5 runs (-113): Even though Bibee had a bad performance in his last start, he’s been solid all year.

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The righty had a 3.47 ERA in the regular season with a 1.12 WHIP. I predict the Yankees will win and score a few runs off of Bibee, but he shouldn’t give up more than that.

That’s also because, when things go south, there’s been no hesitation from Cleveland to turn to its bullpen.

Rodon will be covered more thoroughly in the next leg but he owns the Guardians’ lineup in his career.

Rodon over 4.5 Ks (-200): Cleveland’s current offence is hitting .197 off Rodon in a hefty 81 at-bat sample size.

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That gives me confidence that the Yankees starter can work late into this ball game, much like Game 1.

In that case, this teased-down strikeout total should be easy to accomplish.

Rodon has cleared this line in 21 of 28 starts this season, including his nine-strikeout performance in Game 1.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 10/19/24.

Yankees vs. Guardians Game 5 ALCS prop picks: Back New York’s offence in Cleveland

The New York Yankees can punch their ticket to the World Series with a win over the Cleveland Guardians today.

The pregame narrative: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have been great in this series and I’m taking prop picks on all three.

Check out my Yankees vs. Guardians prop picks for Game 5 of their ALCS matchup on Oct. 19.

Yankees vs. Guardians prop picks

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Best bet: Soto over 0.5 runs (-130)

Soto has been effective this series, scoring four runs in four games. He also has four hits and two home runs but his three walks are a major reason I’m opting for his runs prop over his total bases prop.

The slugger is batting .286 in the playoffs but is reaching base at a .417 clip. Judge’s emergence in this series led Soto to score vital runs for his squad.

Additionally, the Yankees outfielder has five career at-bats against Guardians starter Tanner Bibee and reached base four times (two hits, two walks).

The value on his run prop is just too good to pass up.

Key stat: Soto scored 68 runs in 81 road games this season.

Quick picks

Judge over 0.5 runs (-120): After starting the postseason with one hit in three games, Judge has come alive.

He has scored in five straight games and is putting the ‘not a playoff performer’ narrative to rest.

Judge has relied on a home run to drive himself home in two games but that is not unusual for the major’s HR leader (58) this season.

The slugger made just one career plate appearance against Bibee and grounded out, but that very small sample size doesn’t deter me from backing MLB’s best offensive player.

Stanton over 0.5 RBI (+140): Stanton has been cleaning up for the Yankees.

The designated hitter has driven in five runs this series and nine overall in the playoffs. That includes a three-run blast in yesterday’s game that helped New York win, 8-6.

Stanton is 6-2 against this line in the playoffs so the risk is worth it here at nice plus-money odds.

Picks made at 10:06 a.m. ET 10/19/2024.