The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday.
The pregame narrative: The defensive upside for both teams is intriguing so my best bet is the under. I’m also eyeing Max Domi and Victor Hedman on the prop market.
Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. the Lightning for the game on Oct. 21.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Lightning
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Best bet: Under 6.5 goals (-110)
The Atlantic Division will be a competitive mess once again and the Leafs and Lightning started as two of its top defensive teams.
That also stands true for the NHL as a whole. Toronto allows the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.2) and Tampa Bay gives up the seventh-fewest (2.5). Both teams are bottom-five in shots allowed, as well.
It’s hard to pick a side tonight but I am more confident in it being a gritty defensive battle.
The additions of Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Anthony Stolarz have been super impactful. It seems rostering a couple of NHL-proven defensemen was all the team needed to have a solid defensive foundation.
It hasn’t been announced who will start in goal for Toronto with Joseph Woll practicing again but it is clear either option is better than what the team had at this time, last year.
Key stat: Unders are 4-1 in Leafs games this season.
Other picks
Domi to record 1+ point (+115): Domi has been excelling on a line with William Nylander and has five points in as many games to prove it.
Again, this should be a defensive battle but Domi plays on the second line and hasn’t needed much time on ice to contribute.
The centreman averages just 15:15 of ice time but has points in three of five games and two multi-point outings.
Unfortunately, he doesn’t get much powerplay time (only 1:43 so far) but he is a great even-strength player.
Domi is a fast skater and a great passer. He’s not afraid to get his hands dirty, either, and is a perfect complimentary player for Nylander.
Hedman under 0.5 points (+115): Hedman is a point-producing defenseman (four points in four games) but I believe his chances of getting on the scoresheet will be slim tonight.
Hedman has points in 2-of-4 games with two points coming on the powerplay and another on an empty net goal. That leaves one 5v5 point.
Toronto kills penalties at an 85% rate and only takes eight penalty minutes per game. Both of those stats rank in the top half of the league.
This feels like a good spot to fade Hedman.
Picks made at 11:14 a.m. on 10/21/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.