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Tigers vs. Guardians Game 5 same-game parlay predicitions: Bet on Skubal to dominate as part of +300 ticket

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians put it all on the line for a spot in the ALCS.

The pregame narrative: Tarik Skubal gets the start for Detroit, and that alone is near enough for me to back the under on the game total. I’m adding one pitching prop for each starter to make up a +300 ticket.

Check out my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions for Game 5 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 12.

Tigers vs. Guardians SGP predictions

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Parlay: Under 6.5 runs + Skubal over 17.5 outs + Boyd over 3.5 strikeouts (+300)

Under 6.5 runs (-143): We saw fortunes fall in favour of pitching in last night’s Game 5 between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, and I think the same will happen in the ALDS tonight.

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In Game 2, these two starters met – we saw nine innings without a run before Kerry Carpenter smacked a game-winning home run in the ninth inning.

Skubal did Skubal things, going seven innings without giving up a run and only allowing three hits.

Matthew Boyd did his best to match that performance, giving the Guardians 4.1 innings of shutout ball. It seems Boyd will go until he gets in trouble but that doesn’t concern me as Cleveland had the best bullpen by a wide margin this season (2.57 ERA).

Pitching has been a strong point for both squads this season so I’m not expecting anything different with a spot in the ALCS on the line.

SGP legs

Skubal over 17.5 outs (-186): If Skubal is dealing as I predict, Detroit will ride with him on the mound as long as possible.

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The future AL Cy Young winner led the American League in ERA (2.39), wins (18) and strikeouts (228).

Skubal hasn’t given up a run in these playoffs and has cleared this line in both starts. Additionally, he’s pitched six-plus innings in 11 of his last 14 appearances.

He’s allowed one run across 14 innings pitched against Cleveland this year so everything is pointing to another long outing for Detroit’s superstar.

Boyd over 3.5 strikeouts (-105): There is concern with taking pitching props in the playoffs but this modest total should be achievable.

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Boyd had a strong season with a 2.72 ERA in his eight starts. He’s given up two or fewer runs in seven straight outings.

In his first start of the series, he recorded five Ks in 4.1 IP. That capped off a seven-start stretch of four or more strikeouts.

That includes a game against the Twins where Boyd only went 2.2 innings and still fanned five batters.

Picks made at 8:46 a.m. on 10/12/24.

Padres vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 5 predictions: Bet on a low-scoring game, fade Ohtani

The NLDS returns to Los Angeles for a winner-take-all Game 5.

The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Dodgers offence scored eight runs on Wednesday but with Yu Darvish on the mound, I’m taking the under. I’m also fading superstar Shohei Ohtani.

Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions for Game 5 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 11.

Padres vs. Dodgers predictions

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Best Bet: Under 8 runs (-117)

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It is unclear who will be starting for L.A. but manager Dave Roberts says the door is open to many options.

Dave Roberts said the pitching game plan for game 5 is open. Yamamoto's in play. Flaherty's in play. TBD, aka bullpen game, is in play.
— Dodgers Tailgate (@DodgersTailgate) October 10, 2024

Both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty struggled in their starts against the Padres so a bullpen game may actually be the best option. After all, that approach earned the Dodgers an 8-0 victory in Game 4.

Yamamoto wouldn’t be a bad option either as the Japanese pitcher gave up two or fewer runs in 12 of 18 starts this season.

What we do know is that Yu Darvish gets the start for San Diego and he owns the Dodgers. In Game 2, Darvish worked seven innings and gave up three hits resulting in one earned run.

Key stat: In a hefty 266 at-bats, L.A.’s lineup has 53 hits (.199 batting average) with 72 strikeouts vs. Darvish.

Quick picks

Ohtani under 0.5 runs (-107): Fading the soon-to-be NL MVP seems like a bold move but this is once again about Darvish.

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Ohtani has one hit in eight at-bats with three Ks against the righty. He was held hitless in four appearances in Darvish’s first start of the series and it’s hard to see the Dodgers slugger turning things around in a high-pressure situation.

Even if the superstar were to find himself in scoring position, there’s no guarantee his teammates can drive him home with their equally unproductive past against Darvish.

Teammates Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez are a combined 22-of-93 off Darvish (.237 BA).

Ohtani failed to score a run in all four games that Darvish started against L.A. this season.

Picks made at 2:52 p.m. ET 10/10/2024.

Padres vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 5 picks: Bet on a low-scoring game, fade Ohtani

The NLDS returns to Los Angeles for a winner-take-all Game 5.

The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Dodgers offence scored eight runs on Wednesday but with Yu Darvish on the mound, I’m taking the under. I’m also fading superstar Shohei Ohtani.

Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers picks for Game 5 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 11.

Padres vs. Dodgers picks

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Best Bet: Under 8 runs (-117)

It is unclear who will be starting for L.A. but manager Dave Roberts says the door is open to many options.

Dave Roberts said the pitching game plan for game 5 is open. Yamamoto's in play. Flaherty's in play. TBD, aka bullpen game, is in play.
— Dodgers Tailgate (@DodgersTailgate) October 10, 2024

Both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty struggled in their starts against the Padres so a bullpen game may actually be the best option. After all, that approach earned the Dodgers an 8-0 victory in Game 4.

Yamamoto wouldn’t be a bad option either as the Japanese pitcher gave up two or fewer runs in 12 of 18 starts this season.

What we do know is that Yu Darvish gets the start for San Diego and he owns the Dodgers. In Game 2, Darvish worked seven innings and gave up three hits resulting in one earned run.

Key stat: In a hefty 266 at-bats, L.A.’s lineup has 53 hits (.199 batting average) with 72 strikeouts vs. Darvish.

Quick picks

Ohtani under 0.5 runs (+115): Fading the soon-to-be NL MVP seems like a bold move but this is once again about Darvish.

Ohtani has one hit in eight at-bats with three Ks against the righty. He was held hitless in four appearances in Darvish’s first start of the series and it’s hard to see the Dodgers slugger turning things around in a high-pressure situation.

Even if the superstar were to find himself in scoring position, there’s no guarantee his teammates can drive him home with their equally unproductive past against Darvish.

Teammates Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez are a combined 22-of-93 off Darvish (.237 BA).

Ohtani failed to score a run in all four games that Darvish started against L.A. this season.

Picks made at 2:52 p.m. ET 10/10/2024.

Maple Leafs vs. Devils picks Oct. 10: Expect Matthews to contribute in high-scoring game

The Toronto Maple Leafs play a road back-to-back against the New Jersey Devils.

The pregame narrative: The Leafs and Devils are loaded with offensive talent and therefore, the over on the game total is my best bet. I’m also taking Matthews to score at a discounted price.

Check out our Maple Leafs vs. Devils picks for the game on Thursday, Oct. 10.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Devils

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Best bet: Over 6.5 goals (-115)

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These teams have combined to go under this number in all three of their games but something has to give.

New Jersey held the Buffalo Sabres to two goals in as many games played but the Sabres’ offence is nowhere near the level of Toronto’s.

Last season, both the Leafs and Devils both ranked inside the top 10 for over records:

Toronto: 44-34-4
New Jersey: 46-34-2

Yesterday, the Leafs were shut out for the first time in 252 games (regular season and playoffs) so I don’t see that being a regular occurrence. Especially when they record 48 shots on target.

New Jersey has scored three and four goals respectively in their first two games and now finds a proper dance partner to showcase offence. Toronto led the league in away goals last season (147), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Key stat: The last four meetings between the Leafs and Devils have gone over this total.

Quick picks

Matthews to score (-112): I’m buying in on Matthews at this price.

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In the season opener, he carried -159 odds to score but was kept off the scoresheet because of a stellar night by Sam Montembeault. He made 48 saves and stopped all six of Matthews’ attempts.

The Maple Leafs’ newest captain led the league with 69 goals last season and scored three goals in two games against the Devils.

Matthews also had 30 goals in 41 away games last year and has his second try in as many nights to score his first of the season.

Picks made at 11:06 a.m. on 10/10/24

Best NHL prop picks Oct. 10: Back Pastrnak, Raymond and Cooley on Thursday

A loaded nine-game NHL schedule provides a few prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Multiple teams are playing their second game tonight with the season in full swing. I’m backing David Pastrnak and Logan Cooley to keep building on their strong starts while taking Lucas Raymond to score in his debut.

Find these two NHL props picks for October 10 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Pastrnak over 4.5 shots (-106)

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The Montreal Canadiens stunned the Toronto Maple Leafs, defeating them 1-0 last night to open the season.

Toronto failed to score but had a boatload of chances. Sam Montembeault stopped all 48 shots against in a masterful performance but that shot total should be concerning for the Habs’ defence.

Tonight, Pastrnak and the Boston Bruins host the Canadiens on a back-to-back and I’m predicting Boston’s top offensive player to get his chances.

The Bruins took 28 shots against the Florida Panthers with Pastrnak delivering five of those.

Montreal’s defence should be tired and is clearly okay with giving up a ton of shots. It allowed the second most per game in the NHL last season (33.4).

Key stat: Pastrnak cleared this shot total in all four games against Montreal last year.

Quick picks

Raymond to score 1+ goal (+145): Raymond broke out last season, recording 31 goals and 41 assists. The 2020 fourth-overall pick is coming into his fourth campaign and I believe he could score 40-plus this season.

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And it starts with a game against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens are playing a back-to-back after getting stifled, 6-0, by the New York Rangers yesterday.

Defence looks like it could be a weak spot for Pittsburgh who allowed 41 shots on goal. It’s not all that surprising as the roster is built around Sidney Crosby and his offensive talent.

Five different Rangers scored with Chris Kreider netting two. Additionally, The Red Wings were the ninth-highest-scoring team last season (3.35/game).

Cooley to score 1+ points (+118): The second-year pro is already one of Utah’s most trusted offensive players.

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Cooley led all Hockey Club forwards in ice time (17:35) and grabbed two assists in the opening game against the Chicago Blackhawks.

Last season, he had an exceptional rookie season, playing all 82 games and scoring 44 points.

It’s not unreasonable to expect a sizeable jump this season. Cooley is on the first line and could easily achieve the 60-point mark in 2024-2025.

The Islanders allowed the third most shots against per game last season (32.8), so there should be ample opportunity for Utah to score a few goals and I expect Cooley to be involved.

Picks made at 9:06 a.m. ET on 10/10/2024.

NFL Week 6 parlay picks: Bet on the Steelers and Ravens as part of +349 wager

One moneyline pick, one alternate spread and one over make up this Week 6 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers have an opportunity to bounce back against the Las Vegas Raiders. Also, take the Baltimore Ravens to cover an alt spread while adding the over in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints game.

Check out my Week 6 parlay picks for the NFL season.

NFL Week 6 parlay picks

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Parlay: Steelers moneyline + Ravens -3 + Buccaneers/Saints over 41.5 points (+360)

Steelers moneyline (-163): Pittsburgh lost last week on a fourth and goal score in the final seconds by Jalen Tolbert of the Dallas Cowboys.

One play decided that game and that shouldn’t deter the Steelers in a much easier Week 6 matchup with the Raiders.

Las Vegas is 2-3-0 with a win over the disastrous Cleveland Browns and a shocking Week 2 win over the Baltimore Ravens.

Things went south last weekend as Garnder Minshew threw two interceptions and was replaced with backup quarterback Aidan O’Connell in a 34-18 loss to the Denver Broncos. If any team is to take advantage of the poor QB play, it’s the Steelers.

Pittsburgh’s defence allows the second least points (14.6/game). The unit has only given up more than 20 points once to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4 (27).

With that consistently strong defence, it’s going to be hard for bad offensive teams to get anything done.

Other parlay picks

Ravens -3 (-200): The Washington Commanders are everyone’s favourite success story but this matchup should prove to be difficult.

The Ravens have figured things out after starting 0-2 with consecutive wins over the Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals.

Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-quality season with 1206 passing yards and a 9:1 TD/INT ratio. Washington’s defence also allows the 11th-most rushing yards (130.0/game) which means Derrick Henry is in a spot to have a field day.

Baltimore’s defence has struggled to contain the pass but is elite, like always, against the rush. It allows the fewest ground yards per game (60.4)

That could ruin Washington’s game plan that has revolved around Jayden Daniel’s duel-threat ability.

The rookie QB has four rushing touchdowns this season which is the same amount as his passing touchdowns.

I see the Ravens forcing Daniels to be a pocket passer. That is adversity he hasn’t faced yet in his short NFL career.

Buccaneers/Saints over 41.5 points (-110): I know Derek Carr is most likely out for a couple of weeks but I’m not sure it matters.

Tampa Bay’s defence has been atrocious this season allowing 258.4 passing yards per game (28th) and 398.0 total yards (30th).

Jake Haener is in line to get the start for the Saints and he is a rookie, but he got snaps last week after Carr went down. Now, he has a full week of preparation before Sunday’s contest.

The idea that the Bucs can put up a boatload of points isn’t that far-fetched either. Baker Mayfield and the offence have scored 30-plus in three of five games this season.

New Orleans allows the 10th-most yards per game (356.2) and could be the victim of Mayfields next masterclass.

NFL picks made at 2:25 p.m. on 10/09/24.

NFL Week 6 parlay picks: Bet on the Steelers and Ravens as part of +349 wager

One moneyline pick, one alternate spread and one over make up this Week 6 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers have an opportunity to bounce back against the Las Vegas Raiders. Also, take the Baltimore Ravens to cover an alt spread while adding the over in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints game.

Check out my Week 6 parlay picks for the NFL season.

NFL Week 6 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 6 betting markets.

Parlay: Steelers moneyline + Ravens -3 + Buccaneers/Saints over 41.5 points (+349)

Steelers moneyline (-162): Pittsburgh lost last week on a fourth and goal score in the final seconds by Jalen Tolbert of the Dallas Cowboys.

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One play decided that game and that shouldn’t deter the Steelers in a much easier Week 6 matchup with the Raiders.

Las Vegas is 2-3-0 with a win over the disastrous Cleveland Browns and a shocking Week 2 win over the Baltimore Ravens.

Things went south last weekend as Garnder Minshew threw two interceptions and was replaced with backup quarterback Aidan O’Connell in a 34-18 loss to the Denver Broncos. If any team is to take advantage of the poor QB play, it’s the Steelers.

Pittsburgh’s defence allows the second least points (14.6/game). The unit has only given up more than 20 points once to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4 (27).

With that consistently strong defence, it’s going to be hard for bad offensive teams to get anything done.

Other parlay picks

Ravens -3 (-225): The Washington Commanders are everyone’s favourite success story but this matchup should prove to be difficult.

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The Ravens have figured things out after starting 0-2 with consecutive wins over the Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals.

Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-quality season with 1206 passing yards and a 9:1 TD/INT ratio. Washington’s defence also allows the 11th-most rushing yards (130.0/game) which means Derrick Henry is in a spot to have a field day.

Baltimore’s defence has struggled to contain the pass but is elite, like always, against the rush. It allows the fewest ground yards per game (60.4)

That could ruin Washington’s game plan that has revolved around Jayden Daniel’s duel-threat ability.

The rookie QB has four rushing touchdowns this season which is the same amount as his passing touchdowns.

I see the Ravens forcing Daniels to be a pocket passer. That is adversity he hasn’t faced yet in his short NFL career.

Buccaneers/Saints over 41.5 points (-110): I know Derek Carr is most likely out for a couple of weeks but I’m not sure it matters.

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Tampa Bay’s defence has been atrocious this season allowing 258.4 passing yards per game (28th) and 398.0 total yards (30th).

Jake Haener is in line to get the start for the Saints and he is a rookie, but he got snaps last week after Carr went down. Now, he has a full week of preparation before Sunday’s contest.

The idea that the Bucs can put up a boatload of points isn’t that far-fetched either. Baker Mayfield and the offence have scored 30-plus in three of five games this season.

New Orleans allows the 10th-most yards per game (356.2) and could be the victim of Mayfields next masterclass.

NFL picks made at 2:25 p.m. on 10/09/24.

Best NHL prop picks Oct. 9: Back Hyman to score in Oilers’ opener, Hughes to produce for Canucks

Several NHL teams start their seasons tonight and I have three prop picks from different games.

The pregame narrative: Zach Hyman is coming off a career season and I’m backing him to score in the opener. Elsewhere, I’m taking Quinn Hughes to score a power play point and Michael Bunting to get on the scoresheet against the New York Rangers.

Find these two NHL props picks for October 9 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Zach Hyman to score (+120)

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Right off rip, I jumped over to take a peek at Connor McDavid’s props but he carries -127 odds to score two-plus points.

Although that’s not a huge amount of juice, I prefer to get behind the No. 1 beneficiary of McDavid’s playmaking.

Hyman scored 54 goals in 80 games last year and 35 were assisted by McDavid. In my view, If the Oilers captain scores multiple points, there’s a good chance Hyman is bagging a goal.

The winger netted the third most goals in the league last year and is a threat to get into scoring position no matter who has the puck.

Key stat: Hyman scored 16 goals in 25 games during last season’s playoff run.

Quick picks

Hughes to score 1+ power play points (+130): I’m looking to find value on Hughes who is -230 to score a point.

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The Calgary Flames have one of the weaker rosters in the NHL and had a bottom-half penalty kill percentage last season (29.7%).

When they did have success, it often fell on the back of Jacob Markstrom who has parted for the New Jersey Devils.

That leaves Dan Vladar to hold down the crease, for now, and his 3.61 GAA and .882 SV% are very unencouraging.

Hughes recorded 38 of his 92 points on the powerplay last season. Two of his three points against the Flames came with the man advantage.

Bunting to score 1+ points (-109): This bet is a lot more simple. Bunting just needs to find his way onto the scoresheet.

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On a base level, he had a decent season, scoring 45 points in 81 games. But when narrowed down to his time with the Pittsburgh Penguins, the results are a lot more intriguing.

Bunting played 21 games with the Pens following the trade deadline and was able to produce 19 points –That’s near the point-per-game pace.

It’s not unusual for wingers to come to Pittsburgh and dominate with Sidney Crosby and/or Evgeni Malkin and Bunting is no exception.

He slots in on the second line with Malkin and is expected to get time on the powerplay.

Picks made at 11:21 a.m. ET on 10/09/2024.

Yankees vs. Royals Game 3 same-game parlay predictions: Back Kansas City and the under in +310 ticket

The New York Yankees visit the Kansas City Royals with the series lead on the line.

The pregame narrative: With Seth Lugo starting, I like the Royals to win at home. I’m also backing the over on an alternate total and the over on a modified Lugo strikeouts prop as part of a same-game parlay for Game 3 of the ALDS.

Check out my Yankees vs. Royals predictions for Game 3 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 9.

Yankees vs. Royals SGP predictions

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Parlay: Royals moneyline + Under 8.5 runs + Lugo over 3.5 strikeouts (+310)

Royals moneyline (-103): I believe Lugo provides a pitching advantage for Kansas City.

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In my MLB best bets for today, I also have Royals moneyline and it’s mostly to do with Lugo’s past success against the Yankees.

New York’s offence has 25 hits in 112 at-bats against Lugo (.223 batting average). He also proved he can get big outs in the playoffs already. He pitched 4.1 innings in a start vs. the Baltimore Orioles in the wild-card series and gave up just one run.

The righty found himself in some tough spots but was able to work through it and limit a very dangerous Orioles offence.

On the other hand, Clarke Schmidt hasn’t been good against the Royals. Kansas City’s current lineup is 21-for-58 off the Yankees’ pitcher (.362 BA).

SGP legs

Under 8.5 runs (-136): Although Schmidt has allowed the Royals to batter him in the past, I can’t ignore his improvements this season.

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In 16 starts, he had a 2.85 ERA. He spent the middle portion of the campaign on the injured list and wasn’t as strong when returning in September but still gave up three or fewer runs in four of five starts.

As it has become known, I am confident in Lugo having a good night but don’t be surprised if both teams struggle to find offence early.

Lugo over 3.5 strikeouts (-200): Since I’m basically all in on the Royals starter today, I might as well take the over on this modest strikeout total.

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Lugo has cleared this Ks prop in nine of his last 11 starts including six strikeouts against the Orioles in his one playoff start.

The Yankees also have a 30.0% career K rate against Lugo. For context, the Colorado Rockies led the majors with a 26.9% K rate.

Picks made at 9:55 a.m. on 10/09/24.

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MLB playoff best bets Oct. 9: Royals, Guardians are good picks to get ahead in ALDS series

Wednesday’s action involves a pair of ALDS Game 3s.

The pregame narrative: The Cleveland Guardians have a good opportunity to get the upper hand with the Detroit Tigers lacking pitching options. Later on, I like the Kansas City Royals to win at home over the New York Yankees.

Check out these MLB best bets for Oct. 9.

MLB best bets

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Best bet: Royals moneyline (-106)

A lot of the reasoning behind this is the starting pitchers.

Clarke Schmidt had a good season for the Yankees overall (2.85 ERA) but comes into this start off extended rest following consecutive starts where he allowed three or more runs.

He often limits hits but has a 41st percentile walk rate (8.5%) according to Baseball Savant. His 3.75 xERA is almost 100 points higher than his actual ERA, so I do believe some good fortune was on his side this season.

Seth Lugo finished with a 3.01 ERA for the Royals, pitched 206.2 innings and has a start in these playoffs already. He worked 4.1 innings against the Orioles in the wild-card round and gave up one run.

In 112 at-bats vs. the Yankees offence, Lugo has held the Bronx Bombers to 25 hits (.223 batting average).

That includes Aaron Judge being 0-for-8 off Lugo in his career. In my view, the Yankees are more likely to struggle on Wednesday.

Key stat: The Royals lineup is 21-for-58 off of Schmidt (.362 BA).

Quick pick

Guardians moneyline (-110): We don’t know who’s starting for the Tigers, but we do know it’s not Tarik Skubal. That’s the important part.

Detroit has done well using basically one starting pitcher this postseason … but how long can that last?

We saw the downside of this approach in Game 1 when the Guardians smacked the Tigers, 7-0, and scored three first-inning runs off of makeshift starter Tyler Holton.

Cleveland will turn to Alex Cobb for this start. He was effective after returning from injury in early August, pitching 16.1 innings and recording a 2.78 ERA before returning to the injured list with a blister on his throwing hand.

It’s not clear what his workload will be but if we’re headed for a bullpen game, I still like the Guardians. They led the majors with a 2.57 bullpen ERA this season.

Picks made at 4:10 p.m. ET on 10/08/2024.