Spencer Closs

Wednesday’s action involves a pair of ALDS Game 3s.

The pregame narrative: The Cleveland Guardians have a good opportunity to get the upper hand with the Detroit Tigers lacking pitching options. Later on, I like the Kansas City Royals to win at home over the New York Yankees.

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MLB best bets

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Best bet: Royals moneyline (+100)

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A lot of the reasoning behind this is the starting pitchers.

Clarke Schmidt had a good season for the Yankees overall (2.85 ERA) but comes into this start off extended rest following consecutive starts where he allowed three or more runs.

He often limits hits but has a 41st percentile walk rate (8.5%) according to Baseball Savant. His 3.75 xERA is almost 100 points higher than his actual ERA, so I do believe some good fortune was on his side this season.

Seth Lugo finished with a 3.01 ERA for the Royals, pitched 206.2 innings and has a start in these playoffs already. He worked 4.1 innings against the Orioles in the wild-card round and gave up one run.

In 112 at-bats vs. the Yankees offence, Lugo has held the Bronx Bombers to 25 hits (.223 batting average).

That includes Aaron Judge being 0-for-8 off Lugo in his career. In my view, the Yankees are more likely to struggle on Wednesday.

Key stat: The Royals lineup is 21-for-58 off of Schmidt (.362 BA).

Quick pick

Guardians moneyline (-113): We don’t know who’s starting for the Tigers, but we do know it’s not Tarik Skubal. That’s the important part.

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Detroit has done well using basically one starting pitcher this postseason … but how long can that last?

We saw the downside of this approach in Game 1 when the Guardians smacked the Tigers, 7-0, and scored three first-inning runs off of makeshift starter Tyler Holton.

Cleveland will turn to Alex Cobb for this start. He was effective after returning from injury in early August, pitching 16.1 innings and recording a 2.78 ERA before returning to the injured list with a blister on his throwing hand.

It’s not clear what his workload will be but if we’re headed for a bullpen game, I still like the Guardians. They led the majors with a 2.57 bullpen ERA this season.

Picks made at 2:29 p.m. ET on 10/08/2024.

Both ALDS series move forward with Game 2s on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The Detroit Tigers will turn to ace Tarik Subal and I like their chances of evening up the series. In the later game, I’m backing the under as the Kansas City Royals try to tie the series with the New York Yankees.

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MLB best bets

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Best bet: Tigers moneyline (-127)

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In his one appearance against the Cleveland Guardians this season, Skubal worked seven innings, giving up 10 hits but limiting the damage to just one run.

The Tigers won the contest 8-2. And to no one’s surprise, Detroit holds the pitching advantage on Monday with Cleveland turning to Matthew Boyd.

Boyd was effective when called on this season (2-2, 2.72 ERA) but only started eight games equating to 39.2 innings. He also struggled in his final three starts of the season, giving up five earned runs over 11 IP (4.09 ERA).

The former Tiger has his work cut out for him. Detroit was the hottest team coming into the playoffs, going on a 31-13 run to end the season.

Skubal is the lone man I can trust in the Tigers’ rotation and I have confidence they can tie the series behind a strong performance.

Key stat: Detroit is 22-10 in Skubal’s starts this year.

Quick pick

Royals/Yankees under 7.5 runs (-106): Cole Ragans is starting for the Royals and he’s been a consistent stud.

Over his last five starts, he’s given up three runs in 31 innings of work. That includes six innings of shutout ball against Baltimore in the wild-card series.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are a combined 1-for-5 off Ragans while complimentary pieces Jazz Chisholm, Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton are all hitless.

Yankees starter Carlos Rodon has been effective in his own right against his opposition. He’s held the Royals’ offence to 29 hits in 123 at-bats (.235).

I also can’t ignore that Kansas City averaged 3.6 runs per game over its final 13 regular season contests.

Picks made at 3:26 p.m. ET on 10/06/2024.

A pair of San Diego Padres hitters are the target of my Game 2 prop picks.

The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Dodgers won yesterday but I expect the Padres to even things up with an advantage on the mound. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Arraez have a prime opportunity to be productive.

Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks for Game 2 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 6.

Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks

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Best Bet: Tatis over 1.5 bases (+108)

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Tatis has a successful history against Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty. He has five hits in eight at-bats, including three doubles and a home run.

San Diego’s slugging outfielder finished the season with a .276 batting average and 21 home runs with a .832 OPS in 102 games. And he only elevates his game in the playoffs.

In yesterday’s contest, he did his part for the Padres, hitting a single and a double, while adding two runs.

So far in eight career playoff games, Tatis has a .393 BA with 11 hits and three HRs. Not a massive sample size, but it’s enough to give me confidence in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Tatis has cashed this wager in all three postseason games.

Quick pick

Arraez to score a run (+115): Here’s another guy who has been efficient against Flaherty.

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In a rather small seven-at-bat sample size, Arraez has three hits (.429). But who isn’t the first baseman productive against?

The Padres’ leadoff man finished the season with a .314 average and 83 runs scored in 150 games. He’s scored a run in five consecutive games leading into Game 2 and I’m predicting the streak to continue.

Arraez is always a tough out and is one of the best at reaching base. He only struck out an unbelievable 29 times in 672 plate appearances this season.

Putting the ball in play is what he’s best at and it leads to ample opportunities for the Padres big bats to drive him in.

Picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET 10/06/2024.