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Best NFL Week 5 prop bets: Bet on Jacobs, Murray and Bowers to produce on Sunday

One running back, one quarterback and a tight end are featured in this week’s NFL prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Josh Jacobs has a favourable matchup to feast this weekend. Elsewhere, I like Kyler Murray and Brock Bowers to have productive outings.

Check out the best NFL Week 5 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 5 prop bets

Go to full NFL Week 5 betting markets.

Best bet: Jacobs over 62.5 rushing yards (-115)

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The Rams’ defence has been downright bad this season. L.A. allows the second-most scrimmage yards per game (398.5) along with the most rushing yards (165.5).

Jacobs has surpassed this total in two of four games this season while averaging a very respectable 4.6 yards per carry.

Last week, the Packers’ tailback had 51 yards but had a season-low nine carries due to the Minnesota Vikings building a big lead early.

In the other three games, Jacobs averaged 20.7 carries out of the backfield. Barring another early deficit, I fully expect him to get back into the range of 15-20 touches.

Look at how other starting tailbacks fared against the Rams and you’ll see why I’m bullish on Jacobs.

D’Andre Swift of the Chicago Bears ran for 93 yards on 16 rushes last week. He’d only managed 68 yards on 37 carries (1.84 YPC) across the first three games.

Jordan Mason recorded 77 yards on 19 carries in Week 3 and James Conner sparked the Rams’ defence for 122 yards on 21 attempts in Week 2.

There isn’t a better matchup on the table right now for a rusher.

Key stat: In one career game vs. Los Angeles, Jacobs had 99 rushing yards on 27 attempts.

Quick picks

Murray over 29.5 rushing yards (-114): The 49ers only allow 10.3 rush yards per game to quarterbacks. However, this stat requires more context.

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Three of the four games have been against Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers — a few of the least mobile QBs in the NFL right now.

Sam Darnold, who’s more inclined to use his legs when needed, finished with 32 yards on 5 rushes against San Fran in Week 2.

Murray is not only much more mobile than the three veteran QBs but he’s got Darnold’s number in the speed department, too.

The Cards’ signal-caller has cleared this line in three of four games this season and is averaging 41.0 rushing yards per game.

Bowers over 45.5 receiving yards (-115): The rookie tight end continues to play a large role in the Raiders’ offence.

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After four weeks, Bowers leads Las Vegas in receptions (20) and yards (216) and now he has a great matchup.

The Denver Broncos give up 5.2 catches per game to opposing tight ends. Over the last two weeks, Denver has allowed 13 receptions to tight ends. Cade Otton of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished with 47 yards on seven catches in Week 3.

Bowers is one of two tight ends in the league to lead his team in receptions/receiving yards and has the benefit of lining up on the inside, away from star corner Pat Surtain.

Picks made at 3:15 p.m. ET on 10/03/2024.

Devils vs. Sabres best bet and odds for NHL Prague game: Bet on Hughes to lead offence in Global Series season opener

The New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres kick off the 2024-2025 NHL season in Prague, Czech Republic on Friday.

The pregame narrative: I’m predicting a lot of goals and expect Devils star Jack Hughes to be the catalyst who drives New Jersey’s offence.

Check out my Devils vs. Sabres best bet and the odds for the Global Series game on October 4.

Devils vs. Sabres best bet

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Devils vs. Sabres markets	Betting odds
Devils moneyline	-150
Sabres moneyline	+125
Devils -1	+155
Sabres +1	-163
Over 6.5 goals	+100
Under 6.5 goals	-120

NHL odds as of 1:41 p.m. ET on 10/03/2024.

Go to full NHL betting markets

Best Bet: Over 6.5 goals (+100)

Buffalo’s offence looks primed for a breakout season based on its preseason performance. Not to put too much stock into the preseason but there’s not much else to go off at this point.

The Sabres finished 5-1 and scored three or more goals in every game. Four of the six contests went over this total.

Turning to New Jersey, the Devils had one of the better over records in the NHL last season (46-34). With another year of experience under the belt of their young core, this team has the talent to be among the best in the league offensively.

Led by Hughes, the Devils’ offence looks dangerous. Hughes recorded 17 points in his first six games last season. All of those contests went over 6.5 goals.

On top of that, neither team has a star goalie. The Devils will most likely turn to Jacob Markstrom, while the Sabres continue to try and build around youngster Devon Levi.

The offensive potential on both sides is much greater than the defensive potential so I’m happy to jump on the over at plus money.

Key stat: Each of the last five contests between these two teams has gone over this total with an average of 8.4 goals scored.

Picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET 10/03/2024.

Devils vs. Sabres picks and odds for NHL Prague game: Bet on Jack Hughes in Global Series season opener

The New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres kick off the 2024-2025 NHL season in Prague, Czech Republic on Friday.

The pregame narrative: I’m predicting a lot of goals and backing Devils star Jack Hughes to have a multi-point night.

Check out my Devils vs. Sabres picks and the odds for the Global Series game on October 4.

Devils vs. Sabres picks

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Devils vs. Sabres markets	Betting odds
Devils moneyline	-143
Sabres moneyline	+125
Devils -1	+114
Sabres +1	-136
Over 6.5 goals	+104
Under 6.5 goals	-122

NHL odds as of 11:27 a.m. ET on 10/03/2024.

Go to full NHL betting markets

Best Bet: Over 6.5 goals (+106)

Buffalo’s offence looks primed for a breakout season based on its preseason performance. Not to put too much stock into the preseason but there’s not much else to go off at this point.

The Sabres finished 5-1 and scored three or more goals in every game. Four of the six contests went over this total.

Turning to New Jersey, the Devils had one of the better over records in the NHL last season (46-34). With another year of experience under the belt of their young core, this team has the talent to be among the best in the league offensively.

On top of that, neither team has a star goalie. The Devils will most likely turn to Jacob Markstrom, while the Sabres continue to try and build around youngster Devon Levi.

The offensive potential on both sides is much greater than the defensive potential so I’m happy to jump on the over at plus money.

Key stat: Each of the last five contests between these two teams has gone over this total with an average of 8.4 goals scored.

Quick Pick

Hughes to score 2+ points (+163): Before getting injured last season, Hughes was a sizeable favourite to win the Hart.

He recorded 17 points in his first six games, recording five multi-point games in the process. The Devils centre has averaged over a point per game in each of the last three seasons.

At just 23 years old, I fully expect Hughes to take another leap this season. There’s value on him to open the season with a bang.

If he gets off to a similar start as last year, it won’t be long before the price diminishes on his player props.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 10/03/2024.

Mets vs. Brewers Game 3 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Marte and Turang to provide offence in +390 wager

Tonight, the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers play for a spot in the NLDS.

The pregame narrative: With two solid pitchers getting the call today, I’m backing the under on a teased-up total. Also, take Starling Marte and Brice Turang to both record a hit as part of this +390 parlay.

Check out my Mets vs. Brewers predictions for Game 3 of their wild-card series on Oct. 3.

Mets vs. Brewers SGP predictions

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Parlay: Under 8.5 runs + Marte to record a hit + Turang to record a hit (+390)

Under 8.5 runs (-159): In the highest-scoring wild-card series, it might seem odd to take the under. But hear me out.

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Jose Quintana gets the start for the Mets, and he was electric during the final stretch of the regular season.

Over his last six starts, Quintana allowed three earned runs in 36.1 innings pitched (0.74 ERA). He held opponents to a .197 batting average in that span.

Tobias Myers hasn’t been as consistent for the Brewers, but he did just toss four scoreless innings of one-hit ball against the Mets at the end of September.

The rookie finished with a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 27 outings.

When these two took the mound against one another on Sept. 28, they combined to allow just two runs and the game finished with six runs total.

SGP legs

Marte to record a hit (-177): Marte is the lone player on the Mets to have a hit off Myers. The outfielder is 1-for-2 against the righty and is coming off a two-hit night in Game 2.

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Marte may only have a .266 BA, but Baseball Savant lists his xBA at .290. That ranks in the 94th percentile. He also performs better on the road, carrying a .285 average in that scenario this season.

Myers throws his four-seam fastball 40.1% of the time. That is a pitch type that Marte hits .316 against. All signs point to the Mets outfielder having an efficient night.

Turang to record a hit (-167): This guy is on a heater.

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Turang has recorded a hit in five straight games and is 10-for-21 during that stretch. In this series, he has five hits in eight at-bats — including three doubles.

The Brewers second baseman will face Quintana for the first time in his career but his recent results overall inspire confidence.

Turang vs. Quintana is a lefty-on-lefty matchup, but Quintana surprisingly allows a higher average to left-handed batters (.255) than right-handed batters (.231).

Picks made at 9:01 a.m. on 10/03/24.

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NFL Week 5 parlay picks: Take the Packers to win as part of +485 ticket

One moneyline pick and two overs make up this week’s NFL parlay.

The pregame narrative: The Green Bay Packers have a good shot to bounce back and improve to 3-2. Elsewhere, back the over in the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans game and in the Cleveland Browns and Washington Commanders matchup.

Check out my Week 5 parlay picks for the NFL season.

NFL Week 5 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 5 betting markets.

Parlay: Packers moneyline + Bills/Texans over 47.5 points + Browns/Commanders over 43.5 points (+485)

Packers moneyline (-163): Green Bay waited a little too long to start clicking last week and fell short to the Minnesota Vikings, 31-29.

With it being Jordan Love’s first game back from injury, there were chemistry issues early but it was figured out in the second half.

Love and Co. scored 22 points in the fourth quarter and despite losing, the offence showed what it can do at full strength.

The Packers quarterback ended with 389 passing yards and four touchdowns. Furthermore, the Vikings’ defence has been elite this year holding opponents to 14.8 points per game.

Los Angeles, on the other hand, has conceded the second most points in the league (115) which equals out to 28.8 per game.

On offence, the Rams’ receiving core is missing its two best players due to injury (Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp) and the results have been uninspiring.

L.A. is 1-3 on the season and has only scored more than 20 points once. I find it hard to envision the Rams keeping pace with the Packers.

Other parlay picks

Bills/Texans over 47.5 points (-110): The Bills had a bad performance last week, scoring just 10 points but Josh Allen is still an elite playmaker.

Even after the poor effort in Week 4, Buffalo still scores the second most points per game (30.5).

Another thing working in favour of the over is CJ Stroud and Houston’s improved offence at home.

Last season, Stroud threw 1,288 more passing yards and 11 more TDs when playing at NRG Stadium. The same trend has continued to start the new year as the signal caller recorded 156 more passing yards in his home appearances with fewer interceptions.

I think these two offences are primed for a shootout on Sunday.

Browns/Commanders over 43.5 points (-110): Washington has the feel of an elite scoring team even behind rookie QB Jayden Daniels.

The second-overall pick completed 82.1% of his passes for 897 yards and three TDs through four weeks. He’s added another 218 yards on the ground with four more scores.

Daniels had led the offence to the third most points scored per game (30.3) and is only getting better as the season goes on.

To contrast that awesome offence is a pretty bad defence. The Commanders allow the fifth most yards per game (369.8) and the seventh most points (25.5).

This is the best shot that Deshaun Watson will have to get his Browns back on track.

NFL picks made at 4:00 p.m. on 10/02/24.

NFL Week 5 parlay picks: Take the Packers to win as part of +498 ticket

One moneyline pick and two overs make up this week’s NFL parlay.

The pregame narrative: The Green Bay Packers have a good shot to bounce back and improve to 3-2. Elsewhere, back the over in the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans game and in the Cleveland Browns and Washington Commanders matchup.

Check out my Week 5 parlay picks for the NFL season.

NFL Week 5 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 5 betting markets.

Parlay: Packers moneyline + Bills/Texans over 47.5 points + Browns/Commanders over 43.5 points (+498)

Packers moneyline (-159): Green Bay waited a little too long to start clicking last week and fell short to the Minnesota Vikings, 31-29.

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With it being Jordan Love’s first game back from injury, there were chemistry issues early but it was figured out in the second half.

Love and Co. scored 22 points in the fourth quarter and despite losing, the offence showed what it can do at full strength.

The Packers quarterback ended with 389 passing yards and four touchdowns. Furthermore, the Vikings’ defence has been elite this year holding opponents to 14.8 points per game.

Los Angeles, on the other hand, has conceded the second most points in the league (115) which equals out to 28.8 per game.

On offence, the Rams’ receiving core is missing its two best players due to injury (Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp) and the results have been uninspiring.

L.A. is 1-3 on the season and has only scored more than 20 points once. I find it hard to envision the Rams keeping pace with the Packers.

Other parlay picks

Bills/Texans over 47.5 points (-109): The Bills had a bad performance last week, scoring just 10 points but Josh Allen is still an elite playmaker.

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Even after the poor effort in Week 4, Buffalo still scores the second most points per game (30.5).

Another thing working in favour of the over is CJ Stroud and Houston’s improved offence at home.

Last season, Stroud threw 1,288 more passing yards and 11 more TDs when playing at NRG Stadium. The same trend has continued to start the new year as the signal caller recorded 156 more passing yards in his home appearances with fewer interceptions.

I think these two offences are primed for a shootout on Sunday.

Browns/Commanders over 43.5 points (-109): Washington has the feel of an elite scoring team even behind rookie QB Jayden Daniels.

Embed: #96288

The second-overall pick completed 82.1% of his passes for 897 yards and three TDs through four weeks. He’s added another 218 yards on the ground with four more scores.

Daniels had led the offence to the third most points scored per game (30.3) and is only getting better as the season goes on.

To contrast that awesome offence is a pretty bad defence. The Commanders allow the fifth most yards per game (369.8) and the seventh most points (25.5).

This is the best shot that Deshaun Watson will have to get his Browns back on track.

NFL picks made at 3:25 p.m. on 10/02/24.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Week 5 prop picks: Back Robinson to have big game, London to score on TNF

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons meet in prime time on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Buccaneers have been prone to allowing running backs to have big games. Therefore, I am taking the over on Bijan Robinson’s rushing prop. I’m also interested in Chris Godiwn’s receiving prop and Drake London to score a touchdown.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Falcons prop picks for Oct. 3.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons prop picks

Full Thursday Night Football betting markets: Click Here

Best Bet: Robinson over 62.5 rushing yards (-112)

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Bettors beware of Robinson’s limited participation in practice this week. However, the second-year tailback said he was “good to go” earlier today.

As we get deeper into the football season, weekly injuries are going to be a frequent concern and it’s something we have to deal with.

There is no worry here that Robinson’s injury is going to limit him as the youngster still got reps in each day this week.

Going into Week 5, Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th most rushing yards per game (131.5). Last Sunday, Saquon Barkley rushed for 84 yards on 10 attempts. The Philadephia Eagles were down early and Barkley still surpassed this total with ease.

The previous weekend, a much less skilled Tyler Badie rushed for 70 yards on nine attempts for the Denver Broncos.

Robinson reached this total in the first two games of the season but fell short in the two previous weeks against the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints.

However, the Chiefs allow the eight-fewest rushing yards per game (99.0) and the Saints are even better, holding opponents to the seventh-fewest (96.5).

Key stat: The Bucs have allowed at least one player to rush for 63-plus yards in each of their four games.

Quick picks

Godwin over 64.5 receiving yards (-117): Tampa Bay’s leading receiver sits tied for ninth in the league in targets (34) and third in the league in receptions (27).

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Godwin’s cleared this total in three of four contests and hasn’t had less than six catches in a game.

With that kind of efficiency and consistency, the weekly matchup becomes much less important but let’s explore it to be thorough.

Atlanta’s pass defence is good but not elite. The unit allows the 13th fewest passing yards per game (191.0). This feels like the perfect time to buy low on a Godwin receiving prop.

London anytime touchdown (+130): London has been targeted six times in the red zone this season and has turned that into five catches.

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Atlanta’s No. 1 receiver has two touchdowns on the year but has received the seventh most red zone targets.

When the Falcons get into Tampa Bay territory, Kirk Cousins likes to look London’s way — and I like the plus-money odds on his TD prop this week.

Picks made at 11:37 a.m. ET 09/25/2024.

MLB best bets Oct. 2: Bet on the Padres to sweep the Braves

Four teams will have the chance to sweep on Day 2 of the MLB playoffs.

The pregame narrative: The San Diego Padres can advance today and I think they have a great opportunity to do so. In the meantime, I’m fading offence in Game 2 of a pivotal American League showdown.

Check out these MLB best bets for Oct. 2.

MLB best bets

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Best bet: Padres moneyline (-120)

San Diego went into the all-star break with a 50-49 record. If you’re just tuning in, that may be hard to believe seeing the team’s final record of 93-69 but the Padres made a serious run.

And it continued into the playoffs. Yesterday, they shut out the Atlanta Braves, 4-0, behind strong pitching and timely hitting.

Starter Michael King was able to go seven innings, leaving a rested bullpen for Game 2 if needed.

Today, the Padres turn to Joe Musgrave who’s been remarkable since returning from injury in August. In nine starts, he has a 2.15 ERA and is holding opponents to a .195 batting average.

Additionally, Musgrove owns the Braves offence historically. In a hefty 107 plate appearances, Atlanta’s lineup has 22 hits with 25 strikeouts and 10 walks.

Max Fried takes the mound for the Braves but he hasn’t been as good against his opposition in the past.

San Diego’s current offence is hitting .284 off Fried in 88 at-bats. In one earlier start this season, the lefty gave up nine hits, three walks and three earned runs in 4.1 innings pitched.

Key stat: The Padres are 9-4 over their last 13 home games.

Quick pick

Royals/Orioles under 7.5 runs (-120): A couple of strong pitchers get the start here and I expect both to be efficient.

Let’s start with Seth Lugo. He was very good for the Royals last month, posting a 2.28 ERA across five starts. He completed seven innings in three of those outings and finished with a season-long ERA of 3.08.

Yesterday’s game finished 1-0 with Baltimore’s bats having no success against Cole Ragans. Lugo will look to follow suit and should be beaming with confidence coming in.

Zach Eflin gets the call for the Orioles and he’s been consistently good for a long portion of the season. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since July 19.

In the 11 starts since Eflin has recorded a 2.56 ERA with 51 Ks and just 11 walks. Expect these two starters to be in top form.

Picks made at 11:11 a.m. ET on 10/02/2024.

MLB best bets Oct. 2: Bet on the Padres to sweep the Braves

Four teams will have the chance to sweep on Day 2 of the MLB playoffs.

The pregame narrative: The San Diego Padres can advance today and I think they have a great opportunity to do so. In the meantime, I’m fading offence in Game 2 of a pivotal American League showdown.

Check out these MLB best bets for Oct. 2.

MLB best bets

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Best bet: Padres moneyline (-121)

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