The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons meet in prime time on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Buccaneers have been prone to allowing running backs to have big games. Therefore, I am taking the over on Bijan Robinson’s rushing prop. I’m also interested in Chris Godiwn’s receiving prop and Drake London to score a touchdown.
Check out my Buccaneers vs. Falcons prop picks for Oct. 3.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons prop picks
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Best Bet: Robinson over 62.5 rushing yards (-112)
Bettors beware of Robinson’s limited participation in practice this week. However, the second-year tailback said he was “good to go” earlier today.
As we get deeper into the football season, weekly injuries are going to be a frequent concern and it’s something we have to deal with.
There is no worry here that Robinson’s injury is going to limit him as the youngster still got reps in each day this week.
Going into Week 5, Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th most rushing yards per game (131.5). Last Sunday, Saquon Barkley rushed for 84 yards on 10 attempts. The Philadephia Eagles were down early and Barkley still surpassed this total with ease.
The previous weekend, a much less skilled Tyler Badie rushed for 70 yards on nine attempts for the Denver Broncos.
Robinson reached this total in the first two games of the season but fell short in the two previous weeks against the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints.
However, the Chiefs allow the eight-fewest rushing yards per game (99.0) and the Saints are even better, holding opponents to the seventh-fewest (96.5).
Key stat: The Bucs have allowed at least one player to rush for 63-plus yards in each of their four games.
Quick picks
Godwin over 64.5 receiving yards (-117): Tampa Bay’s leading receiver sits tied for ninth in the league in targets (34) and third in the league in receptions (27).
Godwin’s cleared this total in three of four contests and hasn’t had less than six catches in a game.
With that kind of efficiency and consistency, the weekly matchup becomes much less important but let’s explore it to be thorough.
Atlanta’s pass defence is good but not elite. The unit allows the 13th fewest passing yards per game (191.0). This feels like the perfect time to buy low on a Godwin receiving prop.
London anytime touchdown (+130): London has been targeted six times in the red zone this season and has turned that into five catches.
Atlanta’s No. 1 receiver has two touchdowns on the year but has received the seventh most red zone targets.
When the Falcons get into Tampa Bay territory, Kirk Cousins likes to look London’s way — and I like the plus-money odds on his TD prop this week.
Picks made at 11:37 a.m. ET 09/25/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.