Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Best MLB prop bets May 20: Bet on Trea Turner to pile up hits vs. Rockies

MLB prop bets

Trea Turner is the headliner of Tuesday’s MLB prop bets, flanked by a pair of lesser-known players.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Turner has the benefit of playing in the offensive haven of Coors Field tonight, which is a great spot to keep a hot streak rolling. In Milwaukee, rookie right-hander Logan Henderson faces the reeling Orioles in search of another bounty of strikeouts.

Check out my MLB prop bets for May 20, which also includes a prediction on Ivan Herrera.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Henderson over 5.5 Ks (-114)

You probably don’t know who Henderson is (I certainly didn’t), but there’s a lot to like about his opportunity tonight against the Baltimore Orioles.

Henderson, a fourth-round pick by the Brewers in 2021, has been mowing down hitters at every level of pro ball. He just made his MLB debut in April and has kept up his high-strikeout ways.

  • Henderson has 16 Ks through two MLB starts (11.0 innings). Last week, he fanned seven batters in 5.0 innings against the Cleveland Guardians.
  • He has a 12.1 K/9 in 214.2 career innings of pro ball. In each of the four individual seasons, his K/9 has always been 11.5 or above.

Most of Henderson’s work this year has come against lesser competition, but the Orioles (15-31) are doing their best impression of a minor league club right now.

They’ve lost seven in a row and are striking out in droves.

Baltimore has the second-highest K rate over the past 30 days (25.0%). The O’s also have the fourth-lowest chase contact rate this season (51.5%), per Baseball Savant.

I think Henderson has a chance to give the Brewers some length tonight despite throwing fewer than 85 pitches in both MLB starts this year.

He has worked up to 96 pitches in the minors (back on May 2), and Milwaukee’s bullpen could really use a breather. Four of its relievers — including its top-three leverage guys — have pitched on back-to-back days.

Key stat: In eight pro outings this year (six at the Triple-A level), Henderson has 5+ Ks in all eight games and 6+ Ks in six games.

Embed: #113987

Best MLB picks

Herrera over 0.5 hits (-143): The sample is still tiny, but Herrera has been superb for the Cardinals this year and should be well worth a juiced-up price like this.

  • 23-for-54 (.426) batting on the season
  • 1+ hits in 9 of 9 games this month
  • .324 xBA
  • .655 xSLG

Reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is on the mound for Detroit, and I don’t expect him to make things easy.

But Herrera has an .822 career OPS against lefties, and one hit from the right-hitting catcher/designated hitter shouldn’t be too much of an ask.

Turner over 1.5 hits (+112): In a vacuum, this is a pretty tough price to pay for a multi-hit performance. But the ingredients are all there for Turner tonight.

  • He’s swinging a hot stick, batting .368 over his past 20 games. Turner has 11 multi-hit games in that span.
  • Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela (1-7, 6.39 ERA) has really been going through it. He’s allowing 8.2 hits per start this year.
  • Technically, Senzatela has a platoon advantage in this righty-on-righty matchup. But he has allowed a .366 BA and 1.073 OPS to right-hitting opponents this year, so … the advantage definitely falls to Turner.

Turner is 7-for-15 with a double against Senzatela.

Also, Turner has a 36th-percentile walk rate (7.0%), so I’m not super worried about him foiling this pick with any free passes.

MLB prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 05/20/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 19: Fade Schwarber, look for Ray and Greene to shine on Monday

MLB prop bets

Half of MLB is in action on Monday evening to kick off a new week.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Toronto Blue Jays aren’t playing, but Jays fans can catch Robbie Ray on the mound as the Giants host the Royals out west. In the game with the highest projected total on the slate, Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies visit the Rockies.

Check out my MLB prop bets for May 19, featuring Ray, Schwarber and Riley Greene.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Ray over 5.5 Ks (-134)

Ray has been the quintessential effectively wild pitcher so far in 2025.

The veteran southpaw leads the NL in walks (26), yet he’s 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA.

And his FIP (3.74) is practically identical to what it was when he earned 2021 AL Cy Young honours with Toronto (3.69).

Though he ranks in the 12th percentile in walk rate, per Baseball Savant, Ray has overcome that issue by ranking in the 75th and 77th percentiles in K rate and whiff rate, respectively.

He has a knack for putting out his own fires. As his opponent tonight knows too well.

Against the active Kansas City Royals lineup, Ray has racked up 28 Ks in just 66 plate appearances — good for a staggering 42.4 K%.

The Royals have the second-lowest K rate in the majors (18.9%), which is why this number is set fairly low for someone of Ray’s pedigree.

Still, the head-to-head history against KC’s lineup is encouraging. As are Ray’s recent outings.

In his past seven starts, Ray is 5-2 vs. this prop while averaging 7.0 Ks.

Key stat: The average MLB whiff rate is 25.2%. Three of Ray’s four pitch offerings have a whiff rate of 34.5% or greater.

Best MLB picks

Schwarber under 0.5 runs (+125): The Phillies are facing a struggling pitcher (Kyle Freeland, 6.15 ERA) tonight in the very welcoming offensive environment of Coors Field. Still, this price has piqued my interest.

Schwarber is no longer the Phillies’ leadoff man, where his run-scoring potential was maximized. In early April, he was moved down in the order, and now he consistently bats third or fourth.

That’s still a great spot to mash, but it makes him less likely to cross the plate himself.

In his past 25 games — all as the No. 3 or 4 hitter — Schwarber has gone under 0.5 runs 13 times.

This is a dangerous play, but I think there’s serious upside based on the price.

Also, Schwarber is just 2-for-15 with seven Ks and zero walks against Colorado’s Freeland.

Greene over 1.5 bases (+115): Against right-handed pitching, Greene is absolutely worth a flier on his bases prop right now.

  • The left-hitting outfielder has a .317/.354/.618 slash line against RHPs this season (compared to a .182/.274/.273 line vs. LHPs).
  • Greene has 2+ bases in 6 of his past 8 games. In the two outliers, he went 0-for-5 with three Ks against lefty pitchers.

Greene will face right-hander Sonny Gray tonight, and Gray isn’t exactly coming in hot.

Over his past four starts, Gray has allowed 26 hits and a .500 SLG over 21.0 innings.

With a 91st-percentile barrel rate (16.3%), Greene has made a habit of delivering the highest-possible contact quality for the Tigers. When he has the platoon advantage, watch out.

MLB prop picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 05/19/2025.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks Game 1: Count on Josh Hart to do it all for New York

Pacers vs. Knicks picks

It’s been a while, but the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks are back on the same court for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: New York and Indiana haven’t met up since February, though they did duel in a seven-game playoff series last May. The Pacers came out on top last year, while the Knicks are favoured to be the victors this time around.

I’m targeting Josh Hart and Myles Turner in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks for Game 1 on May 21.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks

Best Bet: Hart over 27.5 points/rebounds/assists (-118)

Indiana has played at the fastest pace among all Eastern Conference playoff teams (99.27 possessions/game).

Boston, meanwhile, played at the second-slowest pace (91.68).

Why bring that up? Because I expect plenty of action in this Knicks/Pacers series, and the speed of the game matters for a market like this.

The Knicks scored 120-plus points in all three matchups against the Pacers during the regular season. Hart happened to ball out in each of those games:

  • Oct. 25: 20 pts, 10 reb, 3 ast
  • Nov. 10: 16 pts, 10 reb, 6 ast
  • Feb. 11: 30 pts, 10 reb, 2 ast

That’s 32 PRA or better in all three matchups against Indiana this season.

Three games isn’t a large sample, but we did see these teams square off in a seven-game playoff series just last spring.

Now we have a 10-game sample over the past 12-and-a-half months. In that time, Hart has averaged 15.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists (30.6 PRA) vs. Indiana.

He’s 7-3 against this prop in those 10 matchups, and two of the outliers were blowout road losses.

New York is a 4.5-point home favourite on Tuesday, and as long as the game doesn’t get away from either side, I love this prop for Hart.

Key stat: Hart is 6-3 vs. this prop in his past nine playoff games, and he’s coming off a triple-double in New York’s Game 6 win over Boston.

Game 1 prop prediction

Turner under 6.5 rebounds (-106): This line is a bit of a toss-up, as Turner averaged exactly 6.5 rebounds during the regular season.

In the playoffs, he’s 5-5 against this line — but his average has dipped to 6.0 RPG.

I prefer taking the under because Turner has cashed that side in four of his past six matchups against New York.

And I think 7-footer Mitchell Robinson, who didn’t face the Pacers at all during the regular season, can pose problems for guys like Turner around the rim.

In the Knicks’ second-round series, Robinson averaged 8.0 rebounds in 20.6 minutes per game off the bench.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET 05/19/2025.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks Game 1: Count on Josh Hart to do it all for New York

Pacers vs. Knicks picks

It’s been a while, but the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks are back on the same court for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: New York and Indiana haven’t met up since February, though they did duel in a seven-game playoff series last May. The Pacers came out on top last year, while the Knicks are favoured to be the victors this time around.

I’m targeting Josh Hart and Myles Turner in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks for Game 1 on May 21.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks

Best Bet: Hart over 27.5 points/rebounds/assists (-113)

Indiana has played at the fastest pace among all Eastern Conference playoff teams (99.27 possessions/game).

Boston, meanwhile, played at the second-slowest pace (91.68).

Why bring that up? Because I expect plenty of action in this Knicks/Pacers series, and the speed of the game matters for a market like this.

The Knicks scored 120-plus points in all three matchups against the Pacers during the regular season. Hart happened to ball out in each of those games:

  • Oct. 25: 20 pts, 10 reb, 3 ast
  • Nov. 10: 16 pts, 10 reb, 6 ast
  • Feb. 11: 30 pts, 10 reb, 2 ast

That’s 32 PRA or better in all three matchups against Indiana this season.

Three games isn’t a large sample, but we did see these teams square off in a seven-game playoff series just last spring.

Now we have a 10-game sample over the past 12-and-a-half months. In that time, Hart has averaged 15.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists (30.6 PRA) vs. Indiana.

He’s 7-3 against this prop in those 10 matchups, and two of the outliers were blowout road losses.

New York is a 4.5-point home favourite on Tuesday, and as long as the game doesn’t get away from either side, I love this prop for Hart.

Key stat: Hart is 6-3 vs. this prop in his past nine playoff games, and he’s coming off a triple-double in New York’s Game 6 win over Boston.

Embed: #113968

Game 1 prop prediction

Turner under 6.5 rebounds (-108): This line is a bit of a toss-up, as Turner averaged exactly 6.5 rebounds during the regular season.

In the playoffs, he’s 5-5 against this line — but his average has dipped to 6.0 RPG.

I prefer taking the under because Turner has cashed that side in four of his past six matchups against New York.

And I think 7-footer Mitchell Robinson, who didn’t face the Pacers at all during the regular season, can pose problems for guys like Turner around the rim.

In the Knicks’ second-round series, Robinson averaged 8.0 rebounds in 20.6 minutes per game off the bench.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET 05/19/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 19: Fade Schwarber, look for Ray and Greene to shine on Monday

MLB prop bets

Half of MLB is in action on Monday evening to kick off a new week.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Toronto Blue Jays aren’t playing, but Jays fans can catch Robbie Ray on the mound as the Giants host the Royals out west. In the game with the highest projected total on the slate, Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies visit the Rockies.

Check out my MLB prop bets for May 19, featuring Ray, Schwarber and Riley Greene.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Ray over 5.5 Ks (-113)

Ray has been the quintessential effectively wild pitcher so far in 2025.

The veteran southpaw leads the NL in walks (26), yet he’s 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA.

And his FIP (3.74) is practically identical to what it was when he earned 2021 AL Cy Young honours with Toronto (3.69).

Though he ranks in the 12th percentile in walk rate, per Baseball Savant, Ray has overcome that issue by ranking in the 75th and 77th percentiles in K rate and whiff rate, respectively.

He has a knack for putting out his own fires. As his opponent tonight knows too well.

Against the active Kansas City Royals lineup, Ray has racked up 28 Ks in just 66 plate appearances — good for a staggering 42.4 K%.

The Royals have the second-lowest K rate in the majors (18.9%), which is why this number is set fairly low for someone of Ray’s pedigree.

Still, the head-to-head history against KC’s lineup is encouraging. As are Ray’s recent outings.

In his past seven starts, Ray is 5-2 vs. this prop while averaging 7.0 Ks.

Key stat: The average MLB whiff rate is 25.2%. Three of Ray’s four pitch offerings have a whiff rate of 34.5% or greater.

Embed: #113965

Best MLB picks

Schwarber under 0.5 runs (+155): The Phillies are facing a struggling pitcher (Kyle Freeland, 6.15 ERA) tonight in the very welcoming offensive environment of Coors Field. Still, this price looks off to me.

Schwarber is no longer the Phillies’ leadoff man, where his run-scoring potential was maximized. In early April, he was moved down in the order, and now he consistently bats third or fourth.

That’s still a great spot to mash, but it makes him less likely to cross the plate himself.

In his past 25 games — all as the No. 3 or 4 hitter — Schwarber has gone under 0.5 runs 13 times.

This is a dangerous play, but I think there’s serious upside based on the price.

Also, Schwarber is just 2-for-15 with seven Ks and zero walks against Colorado’s Freeland.

Greene over 1.5 bases (+120): Against right-handed pitching, Greene is absolutely worth a flier on his bases prop right now.

  • The left-hitting outfielder has a .317/.354/.618 slash line against RHPs this season (compared to a .182/.274/.273 line vs. LHPs).
  • Greene has 2+ bases in 6 of his past 8 games. In the two outliers, he went 0-for-5 with three Ks against lefty pitchers.

Greene will face right-hander Sonny Gray tonight, and Gray isn’t exactly coming in hot.

Over his past four starts, Gray has allowed 26 hits and a .500 SLG over 21.0 innings.

With a 91st-percentile barrel rate (16.3%), Greene has made a habit of delivering the highest-possible contact quality for the Tigers. When he has the platoon advantage, watch out.

MLB prop picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 05/19/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder SGP predictions Game 1: Look for Jalen Williams, Donte DiVincenzo to contribute

Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves are back in the Western Conference finals for a second consecutive year, and this time they’ll face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: OKC is a -385 favourite to win the series after going the distance with the Denver Nuggets in Round 2. The Thunder and Timberwolves split their season series, 2-2, winning once apiece at home and on the road.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 1 on May 20, featuring Jalen Williams and Donte DiVincenzo.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves +11.5 | Williams over 4.5 assists | DiVincenzo over 1.5 threes (+290)

Timberwolves +11.5 (-209): Congrats on grinding out a seven-game series win, OKC. Your prize is one day of rest before the ravenous Timberwolves come to town.

Minnesota, which knocked out the Golden State Warriors in five games, will have a 5-1 advantage in terms of rest days entering the conference finals.

OKC is coming off a much tougher series, which includes three games played at Denver’s mile-high altitude since May 9.

  • The Thunder are 2-7 ATS in their past nine games. The Timberwolves are 8-2 ATS in the postseason.
  • Minnesota is 11-6 ATS as a road underdog this year, per Team Rankings.
  • The T-Wolves are 3-0 ATS vs. OKC since February, winning two of those games straight up as underdogs. Also, they didn’t have Rudy Gobert or Julius Randle for any of those games.

NBA SGP legs

Williams over 4.5 assists (-134): I rode with Williams at this number in Game 7 against the Nuggets and he delivered, dishing seven assists in the victory.

He is now 9-2 against this prop in the playoffs, averaging 5.7 assists in those matchups.

During the regular season, J-Dub had 27 assists in four games against the Timberwolves, going 4-0 against this prop.

Williams bounced back as a scorer last time out, but he still only shot 37.5% from the field (23.7% from 3-point range) in the second round. Setting up teammates should remain a key element of his game.

DiVincenzo over 1.5 threes (-182): It’s been a rough postseason for DiVincenzo beyond the arc, but I still don’t think this is asking too much.

  • Despite shooting just 25.0% from deep in the playoffs, DiVincenzo is 5-5 vs. this prop.
  • He’s averaging 5.6 attempted 3s per game. That’s down from 7.1 3PA during the regular season, but it’s still a healthy volume for a number like this.
  • OKC allowed 39.6 attempted 3s per game to Denver. That was the second-most of the eight teams in the conference semifinals.

Including the regular season and playoffs, DiVincenzo has cashed this bet in 53 of 72 games (73.6%). That includes a 2-for-7 showing beyond the arc in his lone matchup against the Thunder.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions made at 9:50 a.m. ET 05/19/2025.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks Game 7: Fade Nikola Jokic, bet on Jalen Williams to contribute as a passer

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks

A back-and-forth series between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will be decided on Sunday afternoon in a Game 7 tilt at Paycom Center.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic dropped 44 points in a losing effort the last time his Nuggets played at OKC, but a home win on Thursday kept the series going. The Thunder are 8.5-point favourites on Sunday and -110 favourites to win the NBA Finals.

I’m fading Jokic while backing Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams in my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks for Game 7 on May 18.

Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic under 8.5 assists (-154)

Was my first instinct to fade Jokic? Absolutely not, but this market is calling out to me.

  • Despite being the Nuggets’ leader in assists this series, Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in all six games.
  • He has cashed this under in eight straight playoff games dating back to the first round.
  • Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in seven straight games vs. OKC (since March).
  • OKC allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season (24.6). They’ve only allowed 20.7 APG in the playoffs.

This isn’t the same Denver team that won the NBA Finals two years ago. Sure, the headliners of Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are still in place, but there are fewer reliable scorers around them.

That explains why Jokic has set career-highs in field-goal attempts, free-throw attempts, 3-point attempts and points this season.

Denver has needed him to create more of his own offence.

In a do-or-die Game 7, who better for the Nuggets to run their offence through than a three-time MVP?

Jokic should still have at least a handful of assists, but his passing volume hasn’t risen to a level where he should be clearing this mark.

According to NBA.com, Jokic is averaging 14.7 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot) this series.

At that volume, he’d need his teammates to shoot north of 60.0% for over 8.5 assists to cash.

Key stat: Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in 14 of 25 playoff games since the start of the 2024 postseason.

Game 7 prop predictions

Holmgren over 9.5 rebounds (-118): OKC brought in Isaiah Hartenstein this offseason for some much-needed size, but he’s not the only 7-footer in the rotation.

Holmgren, listed at 7-foot-1, has been hauling in plenty of boards this postseason, too.

  • He’s averaging a team-high 10.8 rebounds this series, going 4-2 vs. this milestone.
  • Holmgren has averaged 10.1 RPG in 10 matchups vs. Denver this season.

In Game 1 against Denver, Holmgren fouled out with just six rebounds in 28 minutes. But he has 11-plus rebounds in four of five games since, and no more than three fouls in any of those games.

As long as Holmgren stays disciplined, I like his chances of cashing this bet.

Williams over 4.5 assists (-143): Williams is really going through it right now as a shooter, posting a 33.7 FG% this series.

He’s also coming off his worst game in the scoring department (six points on 3-of-16 shooting).

But Williams is also coming off his best game as a passer. He dished 10 assists for the Thunder, marking the fourth time in five games that he’s cleared this mark.

So far in the playoffs, Williams is averaging 5.6 assists and has cashed this bet in seven of 10 games.

He’s also 7-2 against this prop in his past nine matchups against the Nuggets, averaging 6.4 assists in that span.

It’d make sense for J-Dub to take on more of a facilitating role in Game 7, given how poor the shooting numbers have been. With that in mind, this is a perfectly attainable number for him to hit.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 2:48 p.m. ET 05/17/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 17: Expect Severino to bounce back, Naylor to stay hot

MLB prop bets

A trio of Saturday night games have my attention for today’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Luis Severino looks to bounce back from his roughest outing of the year, and the conditions seem ripe for him to do just that. Elsewhere, Canadian slugger Josh Naylor digs in for what should be a juicy matchup against Colorado right-hander German Marquez.

Check out my MLB prop bets for May 17, including my best bet on Rhys Hoskins.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Hoskins over 0.5 hits (-130)

I stared down Hoskins over 1.5 bases (+175) for a bit before opting for the safer play. If this prop wasn’t at such a playable price, I would’ve taken a bigger swing.

Where is the Hoskins disrespect coming from? I’m not sure.

He has a .286/.392/.451 slash line, which is good for a 136 wRC+ (39th out of 164 qualified hitters). Players with numbers like that don’t tend to see this type of price on their hits props.

The pitching matchup isn’t ideal, as Pablo Lopez (3-2, 2.77 ERA) is having a nice year so far. Lopez has held right-hitting players to 11-for-67 batting (.164) with 23 strikeouts.

But Hoskins knows how to figure Lopez out. In their previous matchups, Hoskins is 6-for-14 with three home runs and two doubles.

One of the biggest risks to this bet might be Hoskins’ watchful eye. He has a 13.9% walk rate, which ranks in the 88th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

Fortunately, Lopez is the type of pitcher who should force Hoskins to put the ball in play. Lopez’s 4.5% walk rate ranks in the 91st percentile among hurlers.

Key stat: In his past 12 games, Hoskins is 14-for-42 (.333) with a .999 OPS. He is 9-3 vs. this prop in that span.

Best MLB picks

Naylor over 1.5 bases (+100): A platoon advantage for a red-hot hitter against a struggling pitcher? Yeah, I’m buying that at even money.

  • Naylor has a .330/.403/.536 slash line against RHPs this season in 130 plate appearances.
  • Naylor has 2+ bases in four straight games and in 22 of 44 games this season.
  • Colorado’s German Marquez has allowed a .351/.422/.542 slash line over his past seven starts.

Naylor is 3-for-9 vs. Marquez with two home runs. The Mississauga, Ontario native is well worth a play at this price.

Severino over 17.5 outs (-134): Severino got torched by a stellar Yankees offence last time out, but that doesn’t wash away the success of his first eight outings with the Athletics.

In each of his first eight starts, Severino pitched into the sixth inning or later, posting a 3.62 ERA and averaging 18.6 outs per game.

The Athletics’ Sutter Health Park has been the second-friendliest offensive environment so far, on par with Coors Field in Colorado. Understandably, Severino’s struggles this year have come in that venue.

In three road starts, he has allowed just two runs over 19.0 innings of work.

Last year, Severino cashed this bet in both starts against the Giants. The current San Francisco lineup has a .138 BA and a .207 SLG against him in 67 plate appearances.

MLB prop picks made at 2:25 p.m. ET on 05/17/2025.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks Game 7: Fade Nikola Jokic, bet on Jalen Williams to contribute as a passer

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks

A back-and-forth series between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will be decided on Sunday afternoon in a Game 7 tilt at Paycom Center.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic dropped 44 points in a losing effort the last time his Nuggets played at OKC, but a home win on Thursday kept the series going. The Thunder are 8.5-point favourites on Sunday and -110 favourites to win the NBA Finals.

I’m fading Jokic while backing Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams in my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks for Game 7 on May 18.

Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic under 8.5 assists (-127)

Was my first instinct to fade Jokic? Absolutely not, but this market is calling out to me.

  • Despite being the Nuggets’ leader in assists this series, Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in all six games.
  • He has cashed this under in eight straight playoff games dating back to the first round.
  • Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in seven straight games vs. OKC (since March).
  • OKC allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season (24.6). They’ve only allowed 20.7 APG in the playoffs.

This isn’t the same Denver team that won the NBA Finals two years ago. Sure, the headliners of Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are still in place, but there are fewer reliable scorers around them.

That explains why Jokic has set career-highs in field-goal attempts, free-throw attempts, 3-point attempts and points this season.

Denver has needed him to create more of his own offence.

In a do-or-die Game 7, who better for the Nuggets to run their offence through than a three-time MVP?

Jokic should still have at least a handful of assists, but his passing volume hasn’t risen to a level where he should be clearing this mark.

According to NBA.com, Jokic is averaging 14.7 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot) this series.

At that volume, he’d need his teammates to shoot north of 60.0% for over 8.5 assists to cash.

Key stat: Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in 14 of 25 playoff games since the start of the 2024 postseason.

Embed: #113893

Game 7 prop predictions

Holmgren 10+ rebounds (-115): OKC brought in Isaiah Hartenstein this offseason for some much-needed size, but he’s not the only 7-footer in the rotation.

Holmgren, listed at 7-foot-1, has been hauling in plenty of boards this postseason, too.

  • He’s averaging a team-high 10.8 rebounds this series, going 4-2 vs. this milestone.
  • Holmgren has averaged 10.1 RPG in 10 matchups vs. Denver this season.

In Game 1 against Denver, Holmgren fouled out with just six rebounds in 28 minutes. But he has 11-plus rebounds in four of five games since, and no more than three fouls in any of those games.

As long as Holmgren stays disciplined, I like his chances of cashing this bet.

Williams over 4.5 assists (-143): Williams is really going through it right now as a shooter, posting a 33.7 FG% this series.

He’s also coming off his worst game in the scoring department (six points on 3-of-16 shooting).

But Williams is also coming off his best game as a passer. He dished 10 assists for the Thunder, marking the fourth time in five games that he’s cleared this mark.

So far in the playoffs, Williams is averaging 5.6 assists and has cashed this bet in seven of 10 games.

He’s also 7-2 against this prop in his past nine matchups against the Nuggets, averaging 6.4 assists in that span.

It’d make sense for J-Dub to take on more of a facilitating role in Game 7, given how poor the shooting numbers have been. With that in mind, this is a perfectly attainable number for him to hit.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 2:08 p.m. ET 05/17/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 17: Expect Severino to bounce back, Naylor to stay hot

MLB prop bets

A trio of Saturday night games have my attention for today’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Luis Severino looks to bounce back from his roughest outing of the year, and the conditions seem ripe for him to do just that. Elsewhere, Canadian slugger Josh Naylor digs in for what should be a juicy matchup against Colorado right-hander German Marquez.

Check out my MLB prop bets for May 17, including my best bet on Rhys Hoskins.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Hoskins over 0.5 hits (-137)

I stared down Hoskins over 1.5 bases (+175) for a bit before opting for the safer play. If this prop wasn’t at such a playable price, I would’ve taken a bigger swing.

Where is the Hoskins disrespect coming from? I’m not sure.

He has a .286/.392/.451 slash line, which is good for a 136 wRC+ (39th out of 164 qualified hitters). Players with numbers like that don’t tend to see this type of price on their hits props.

The pitching matchup isn’t ideal, as Pablo Lopez (3-2, 2.77 ERA) is having a nice year so far. Lopez has held right-hitting players to 11-for-67 batting (.164) with 23 strikeouts.

But Hoskins knows how to figure Lopez out. In their previous matchups, Hoskins is 6-for-14 with three home runs and two doubles.

One of the biggest risks to this bet might be Hoskins’ watchful eye. He has a 13.9% walk rate, which ranks in the 88th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

Fortunately, Lopez is the type of pitcher who should force Hoskins to put the ball in play. Lopez’s 4.5% walk rate ranks in the 91st percentile among hurlers.

Key stat: In his past 12 games, Hoskins is 14-for-42 (.333) with a .999 OPS. He is 9-3 vs. this prop in that span.

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Best MLB picks

Naylor over 1.5 bases (+107): A platoon advantage for a red-hot hitter against a struggling pitcher? Yeah, I’m buying that at plus money.

  • Naylor has a .330/.403/.536 slash line against RHPs this season in 130 plate appearances.
  • Naylor has 2+ bases in four straight games and in 22 of 44 games this season.
  • Colorado’s German Marquez has allowed a .351/.422/.542 slash line over his past seven starts.

Naylor is 3-for-9 vs. Marquez with two home runs. The Mississauga, Ontario native is well worth a play at this price.

Severino over 17.5 outs (-129): Severino got torched by a stellar Yankees offence last time out, but that doesn’t wash away the success of his first eight outings with the Athletics.

In each of his first eight starts, Severino pitched into the sixth inning or later, posting a 3.62 ERA and averaging 18.6 outs per game.

The Athletics’ Sutter Health Park has been the second-friendliest offensive environment so far, on par with Coors Field in Colorado. Understandably, Severino’s struggles this year have come in that venue.

In three road starts, he has allowed just two runs over 19.0 innings of work.

Last year, Severino cashed this bet in both starts against the Giants. The current San Francisco lineup has a .138 BA and a .207 SLG against him in 67 plate appearances.

MLB prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 05/17/2025.