Trea Turner is the headliner of Tuesday’s MLB prop bets, flanked by a pair of lesser-known players.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Turner has the benefit of playing in the offensive haven of Coors Field tonight, which is a great spot to keep a hot streak rolling. In Milwaukee, rookie right-hander Logan Henderson faces the reeling Orioles in search of another bounty of strikeouts.
Check out my MLB prop bets for May 20, which also includes a prediction on Ivan Herrera.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Henderson over 5.5 Ks (-114)
You probably don’t know who Henderson is (I certainly didn’t), but there’s a lot to like about his opportunity tonight against the Baltimore Orioles.
Henderson, a fourth-round pick by the Brewers in 2021, has been mowing down hitters at every level of pro ball. He just made his MLB debut in April and has kept up his high-strikeout ways.
- Henderson has 16 Ks through two MLB starts (11.0 innings). Last week, he fanned seven batters in 5.0 innings against the Cleveland Guardians.
- He has a 12.1 K/9 in 214.2 career innings of pro ball. In each of the four individual seasons, his K/9 has always been 11.5 or above.
Most of Henderson’s work this year has come against lesser competition, but the Orioles (15-31) are doing their best impression of a minor league club right now.
They’ve lost seven in a row and are striking out in droves.
Baltimore has the second-highest K rate over the past 30 days (25.0%). The O’s also have the fourth-lowest chase contact rate this season (51.5%), per Baseball Savant.
I think Henderson has a chance to give the Brewers some length tonight despite throwing fewer than 85 pitches in both MLB starts this year.
He has worked up to 96 pitches in the minors (back on May 2), and Milwaukee’s bullpen could really use a breather. Four of its relievers — including its top-three leverage guys — have pitched on back-to-back days.
Key stat: In eight pro outings this year (six at the Triple-A level), Henderson has 5+ Ks in all eight games and 6+ Ks in six games.
Best MLB picks
Herrera over 0.5 hits (-143): The sample is still tiny, but Herrera has been superb for the Cardinals this year and should be well worth a juiced-up price like this.
- 23-for-54 (.426) batting on the season
- 1+ hits in 9 of 9 games this month
- .324 xBA
- .655 xSLG
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is on the mound for Detroit, and I don’t expect him to make things easy.
But Herrera has an .822 career OPS against lefties, and one hit from the right-hitting catcher/designated hitter shouldn’t be too much of an ask.
Turner over 1.5 hits (+112): In a vacuum, this is a pretty tough price to pay for a multi-hit performance. But the ingredients are all there for Turner tonight.
- He’s swinging a hot stick, batting .368 over his past 20 games. Turner has 11 multi-hit games in that span.
- Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela (1-7, 6.39 ERA) has really been going through it. He’s allowing 8.2 hits per start this year.
- Technically, Senzatela has a platoon advantage in this righty-on-righty matchup. But he has allowed a .366 BA and 1.073 OPS to right-hitting opponents this year, so … the advantage definitely falls to Turner.
Turner is 7-for-15 with a double against Senzatela.
Also, Turner has a 36th-percentile walk rate (7.0%), so I’m not super worried about him foiling this pick with any free passes.
MLB prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 05/20/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.