Jordan Horrobin

It’s a light MLB slate on Thursday, and my three picks come from the five-game evening slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: In the final game of the night, Isaac Paredes and the Houston Astros look to pounce on a pitcher making his season debut. Elsewhere, AJ Smith-Shawver will try to mow down the Washington Nationals for the second time in as many weeks.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Wednesday, May 22, which includes a prediction on Cedric Mullins.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Paredes over 0.5 runs (+145) 

Paredes is known as a pull-happy slugger, but his game is a bit more well-rounded than that.

Last year, Paredes had a 93rd-percentile walk rate (11.9%), per Baseball Savant. And his 13.9% walk rate so far this year is even higher.

He can still mash, though, tagging four home runs in his past four games. The 2024 all-star has a .308/.419/.712 slash line since May 7 (14 games).

Paredes started the year in the No. 2 spot in the Astros’ lineup before sliding to No. 3. But Houston moved him back to No. 2 a few games ago, which makes him an even more compelling pick to score.

George Kirby gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners tonight in his season debut. Kirby started the year on the injured list with shoulder inflammation and has since made a few rehab starts.

On Friday, in his most recent minor league outing, Kirby allowed four runs on 10 hits in 4.0 innings.

Also, the whiff rate on his slider over his three rehab starts was just 15.4% — down from 26.9% last season.

Kirby is a talented pitcher, so I don’t want to make too much of those numbers. But he doesn’t seem to be entering tonight at his sharpest, and Paredes is on a hot streak that is too good to ignore.

Key stat: Over his past 14 games, Paredes is 10-4 against this prop.

Best MLB picks

Smith-Shawver over 4.5 Ks (-163): The Washington Nationals can stack as many as eight left-hitting players in their batting order tonight against the right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver. But that’s not necessarily to their benefit.

Smith-Shawver has enjoyed some notable reverse splits through seven outings this season:

• vs. LHHs: .154 BA, .471 OPS, 29.8 K%
• vs. RHHs: .297 BA, .814 OPS, 19.5 K%

Last Thursday, Smith-Shawver tossed 6.0 innings of two-hit ball against the Nationals, allowing just one unearned run while striking out six.

He’s 6-0 against this line in his past six starts.

Mullins over 0.5 hits (-150): Mullins is having a so-so year at the plate, but this is a really playable price for him against a struggling pitcher.

• Boston Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito has allowed 25 hits and 16 runs through four starts.

• Giolito’s opponents are batting .305 with an .861 OPS against him.

• Mullins is 8-for-13 with a triple and three doubles against Giolito.

Though Mullins is only batting .236 overall this season, his .261 career BA against righties is a fairly respectable mark.

Also, the outfielder has cashed this bet in seven of his past 10 games, batting 11-for-38 (.289) in that span.

MLB prop picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 05/22/2025.

It’s getaway day for the Toronto Blue Jays, who look to complete a sweep of the San Diego Padres at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is 4-4 during this homestand thanks to a pair of shutout wins over San Diego. A win on Thursday would put the Blue Jays (24-24) back above .500 for the year and hand the Padres their sixth straight loss.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Padres prop picks on May 22, featuring Luis Arraez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays picks vs. Padres

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Best Bet: Arraez over 1.5 hits (+130)

Arraez is still one of the most unique hitters in baseball.

The three-time reigning batting champ — with three different teams, mind you — rarely walks or strikes out. And he doesn’t hit the ball hard. But his contact quality is among the best in the bigs.

Look at Arraez’s Baseball Savant percentile rankings to see what I’m talking about:

• 100th-percentile K rate (1.7%)
• 99th-percentile squared-up rate (41.0%)
• 16th-percentile walk rate (5.0%)
• 1st-percentile hard-hit rate (16.8%)

Arraez is batting .301 this year with just three home runs to his name. He knows how to put good wood on the ball, but he’s rarely swinging for the fences.

His price to go over 1.5 bases today is -118, but betting on a multi-hit game at +130 makes a lot more sense. Arraez has 15 games with over 1.5 bases this year … and 14 of those were multi-hit performances.

San Diego’s offence is ice cold, tallying just three runs during its five-game losing streak. But Arraez keeps chugging along.

The left-hitting infielder is on an eight-game hit streak, and he’s batting 17-for-48 (.354) over his past 11.

Now he’ll wield a platoon advantage over Toronto starter Bowden Francis, who’s allowing a .306 xBA this year (sixth percentile).

Key stat: Arraez is 38-for-116 (.368) against right-handed pitchers this season.

Quick pick

Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-118): This price looks like a bargain based on how Guerrero is performing right now.

Here are his numbers over the past month (since April 23):

• 20 runs
• .400 OBP
• .889 OPS
• 1+ runs in 18 of 24 games

As much as I’d like to back Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+105), his propensity to reach with a walk is scaring me away. But that’s not an issue when you’re simply looking for the four-time all-star to score.

Guerrero will face Padres righty Stephen Kolek, who throws a mix of sinkers, four-seamers and sliders more than 75.0% of the time against right-hitting players.

Against those pitch types this year, Guerrero has a .348/.447/.545 slash line in 132 plate appearances.

Padres vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:53 a.m. ET on 05/22/2025.

After Monday’s off-day, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in action Tuesday night with a home matchup against the San Diego Padres.

The pregame narrative: Despite going 2-4 on their recent homestand, the Padres (27-18) still have the fifth-best record in MLB. Dylan Cease gets the ball for the visiting Padres, looking to build off back-to-back quality starts.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Padres on May 20, featuring Cease and George Springer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Padres

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Best Bet: Cease over 5.5 Ks (-125)

Cease has command issues at times, but no one can question the nastiness of his pitch arsenal.

The seventh-year vet plays off an upper-90s fastball with a slider that has a 43.1% whiff rate (14th-highest among all MLB pitches, per Baseball Savant, min. 50 plate appearances).

Aside from the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Cease has posted a double-digit K/9 rate every year of his career.

A simple way to contextualize that is to say Cease averages more than one strikeout per inning. And on most nights, over 5.5 Ks is going to be an attainable number.

That has proven true this year, as Cease is averaging 6.4 Ks per outing. He is 7-2 vs. this prop.

The Blue Jays aren’t a plus matchup for strikeout props, but they aren’t impervious to the efforts of an ace-calibre arm. Over the past 14 days, Toronto has the 18th-highest K rate (21.4%).

Cease has crested the 200-strikeout mark in each of the past four seasons, and he’s on track to do it again. Coming off a season-high 10 Ks, I expect another solid outing from him.

Key stat: The Jays’ active lineup has struck out 21 times against Cease in 64 plate appearances (32.8 K%).

Quick pick

Springer under 0.5 hits (+110): Springer has arguably been the Jays’ best bat so far in 2025, but his numbers have really dropped off following a scorching start.

• First 21 games: .349/.425/.556
• Past 22 games: .189/.333/.378

Most recently, Springer has gone hitless in seven of his past 13 starts. And I really don’t like this matchup for him against Cease.

As mentioned, Cease has a nasty slider. He throws it 55.5% of the time to right-hitting opponents, garnering a .185 BA against the pitch.

Springer is 4-for-27 (.148) with a 48.0% whiff rate against sliders this season. And he’s just 1-for-6 with three Ks against Cease.

Padres vs. Blue Jays picks made at 3:50 p.m. ET on 05/20/2025.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s worst start of the season came earlier this month against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he’ll look to bounce back against the divisional foe on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Yamamoto allowed five runs over 5.0 innings against Arizona on May 8, with Ketel Marte dealing some of that damage. The Dodgers (29-19) still lead the NL West despite dropping four games in a row.

Check out my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop bets, featuring Marte and Teoscar Hernandez.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop bets

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Best Bet: Marte over 0.5 runs (+115)

It’s exceedingly rare to see Marte’s runs prop with such an enticing price, and I have to buy in.

I know Yamamoto (5-3, 2.12 ERA) has put together a stellar body of work through two months. But his past two starts were a bit shakier, as he allowed eight runs on 10 hits in 11.0 innings.

One of those outings came against the Diamondbacks, and Marte teed off on Yamamoto with a solo home run that had a 108.6-mph exit velocity.

I’d love to see another home run from Marte tonight, and he has six in his past 11 games, so it’s not out of the question.

But I’m more bullish on his low strikeout rate and high walk rate, which suggest he’ll find a way on base some way or another.

Marte has a 13.4 K% and a 13.4 BB%. For context, MLB averages are 22.0 K% and 8.7 BB%.

As an everyday player who bats either first or second for the D-backs, Marte will be in a great position to score as long as he gets on.

He has cashed this bet in five straight games, as well as 14 of 21 starts this year.

Key Stat: Marte is 3-for-7 with a homer, a double and two walks against Yamamoto.

Best MLB picks

Hernandez over 0.5 RBI (+170): Hernandez was sidelined for two weeks with a groin strain, but he was back in the Dodgers’ lineup last night and cashed this bet in his return.

Dating back to April 22, Hernandez is 10-3 against this prop and has 18 RBI in 13 games. He also has a .389/.400/.722 slash line in that span.

L.A.’s lineup hasn’t had much success against Arizona starter Ryne Nelson, but Hernandez is 3-for-4 with a double and two walks.

Hernandez typically bats with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman ahead of him. Those guys spend plenty of time on base, and Hernandez has made a habit of driving them home.

The outfielder is 17-for-39 (.436) with runners in scoring position this year, posting an otherworldly 237 wRC+.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop bets made at 3:22 p.m. ET on 05/20/2025.

Trea Turner is the headliner of Tuesday’s MLB prop bets, featured alongside one lesser-known player.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Turner has the benefit of playing in the offensive haven of Coors Field tonight, which is a great spot to keep a hot streak rolling.

Check out my MLB prop bets for May 20, which also includes a prediction on Ivan Herrera.

MLB prop bets

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
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Best Bet: Turner over 1.5 hits (+115)

In a vacuum, this is a pretty tough price to pay for a multi-hit performance. But the ingredients are all there for Turner tonight.

• He’s swinging a hot stick, batting .368 over his past 20 games. Turner has 11 multi-hit games in that span.

• Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela (1-7, 6.39 ERA) has really been going through it. He’s allowing 8.2 hits per start this year.

• Technically, Senzatela has a platoon advantage in this righty-on-righty matchup. But he has allowed a .366 BA and 1.073 OPS to right-hitting opponents this year, so … the advantage definitely falls to Turner.

Turner is 7-for-15 with a double against Senzatela.

Also, Turner has a 36th-percentile walk rate (7.0%), so I’m not super worried about him foiling this pick with any free passes.

Key stat: In eight pro outings this year (six at the Triple-A level), Henderson has 5+ Ks in all eight games and 6+ Ks in six games.

Best MLB picks

Herrera over 0.5 hits (-154): The sample is still tiny, but Herrera has been superb for the Cardinals this year and should be well worth a juiced-up price like this.

• 23-for-54 (.426) batting on the season
• 1+ hits in 9 of 9 games this month
• .324 xBA
• .655 xSLG

Reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is on the mound for Detroit, and I don’t expect him to make things easy.

But Herrera has an .822 career OPS against lefties, and one hit from the right-hitting catcher/designated hitter shouldn’t be too much of an ask.

MLB prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 05/20/2025.